hfthrowaway

I'm a self-taught programmer w/ 0-1 year of professional experience. My current income is pretty dismal, and the recruiter (third-party) forced me to disclose it. Now I'm worried if that might drag down the offer. I can't accurately assess my value, as I don't have something concrete like a CS degree to base it on. I'm also afraid I'll be meek about negotiation, if I'm asking for something thats way off their range.

It's a multi-billion dollar hedge fund in NYC w/ very low headcount. I'd say the project workload is higher than average because of a small dev team, and its a fair balance of front/middle/back office work. Its a discretionary (non-quant) fund.

1) What range should I expect to be fair? (salary + bonus)

2) Is it unethical to negotiate directly with the employer (go around the recruiter)? I imagine the recruiter just wants to close a deal, and not really fight for the best offer.

3) If I shoot too high, can the offer get pulled before I'm told its out of their range? If I say "I'm expecting X" can they say "We're sorry, that's too much, we decided to go with applicant B" ?

4) I'm reading about negotiation (especially here on HN). Everything from "don't say the first number" to "say the first number (price anchoring)". I actually have a figure in my mind that I believe I'd be happy with. Its slightly higher than the top of the range I was quoted by the recruiter. Would it be better to just say "I expect X for this position" and be hardnose about it, or to say "I was expecting something between X and X+20%" and negotiate?