Ask HN: 15 Years, 9 Startups, 0 Big Wins – Should I Quit or Keep Going?

Onboard 20-30 retailers consistently ordering through your platform

Establish 3-5 functioning mini-warehouses in one focused neighborhood or district

Achieve 70%+ retention rate (retailers placing second and third orders)

Demonstrate consistent 1-2 day delivery timeframes vs. industry standard

6-Month Milestones:

Develop a simple but scalable credit scoring system for your retailers

Implement a minimal credit offering for your best customers (even if limited)

Create streamlined logistics model that can handle 3-5x your current volume

Document 3-5 case studies showing measurable retailer benefits (time/cost savings)

12-Month Decision Points:

Revenue covering operational costs (excluding your time) 10-15% month-over-month growth in transaction volume

Clear unit economics showing profitability per delivery At least one key metric where you're 2-3x better than traditional wholesalers

Rather than trying to fund everything from your agency, consider a "minimum viable credit" approach - perhaps starting with net-15 payment terms for your most reliable retailers, then gradually extending as you validate repayment behavior.

Could you saturate just one neighborhood or product category first to demonstrate density advantages?

The key now is focused execution rather than trying to solve every problem at once. What's the absolute minimum version of Tillit that delivers real value and can grow without significant outside capital?

I got involved in my first startup soon after I graduated with my undergrad degree and started on a part-time masters degree. I worked on a day job to pay my rent, food, etc. And I worked for the startup the rest of the time. Sometimes I would work all night and go to the day job without any sleep, just a quick shower. It didn't work out. The startup did a pivot and in so doing screwed me out of at least a million AUD. That was lesson #1. It was decades ago.

I have since been involved in many other startups, most on a full-time basis. Varying durations until runway got burnt up. I'm very much the tech guy. In hindsight I put too much faith in the business acumen co-founders and investors. Had to return to consulting work in between those startup attempts. That is how I kept myself afloat.

I'm in Australia and VCs are nothing like those in SV. In general risk aversion is high and the success dynamics in the USA don't translate well to local conditions, culture, etc. I think you may be in a comparable environment. So you need to temper your expectations for Tillit in light of your local environment. Read up on Steve Blank https://steveblank.com/books-for-startups/ The takeaway: find product market fit. If you don't you don't have a business.

I have gone on to get my PhD in software engineering and from time to time I teach at one Australia's best universities. I'm now retired courtesy of some good real-estate investments. I learnt a lot about the business world through consulting work. I now focus technical mentoring for startups on behalf of the investors rather than the founders.