I would sign up today for nuclear power in 2025 if it replaced all natural gas and diesel/petrol vehicles on the roads.
> Median construction time required for nuclear reactors worldwide oscillated from around 84 months to 117 months, from 1981 to 2019 respectively.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/712841/median-constructi...
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-new-coal-fired-pow...
The timeline ballooning as all external parties take their time weighing in and covering their asses, and costs associated with idling construction waiting for same, are getting ridiculous.
Either it's a priority (in which case everyone should treat it as such), or it's not (in which case we should accept we just can't build non-priority projects over a certain scale).
In some cases EDF even planned building more reactors from the very beginning, for example at the nuclear power plant of Belleville-sur-Loire: everything was planned for 4 reactors, but only 2 were built. So they can build two extra right there, no need to find a new site.
The current not so small problem is that EDF needs to learn how to build nuclear reactors again. That's what they are currently doing, at great cost and great delays... But if the political will is there, they can start to break ground quite literally tomorrow.
Source: chapter 6 of “Nuclear Power: A Brief Introduction.”
We used to be able to build things quite quickly. E.g. The Bay Bridge was built in 5 years for $77 million (~$1.5 Billion today) in 1931-1936. This is not ground breaking, but law passed to bridge opening.
Just replacing the Eastern span cost $6.5 Billion and took ~18 years to build (1995-2013) from law passed to section opening.
[1] http://www.meca.org/technology/technology-details?id=5&name=...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0d0MPg7DxbY
But liquid fuels are incredibly convenient, so maybe they will be worth the high price in certain applications. For example in jet engines for airplanes.
The entire transportation fleet, a good chunk of the grid and a good chunk of the infrastructure for heating things.
I don't know exactly how true this is but I believe gas usage for heating is much rarer in France than other countries. They have a lot of electrical storage heating due to the cheap off peak baseload that nuclear gives.
- pollution and waste - it's limited
At the current consumption, uranium would only last 80 years, if all the countries start to build new power plants, won't last more than 2 decades before it's depleted, and we will have the same problem again.
nuclear power is not a solution, is just a small patch.
Interesting. I had not heard this before, and Wikipedia seems to somewhat agree. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power#Uranium_resource...:
> As of 2011 the world's known resources of uranium, economically recoverable at the arbitrary price ceiling of US$130/kg, were enough to last for between 70 and 100 years.[60][61][62] In 2007, the OECD estimated 670 years of economically recoverable uranium in total conventional resources and phosphate ores assuming the then-current use rate.[63]
> Light water reactors make relatively inefficient use of nuclear fuel, mostly using only the very rare uranium-235 isotope.[64] Nuclear reprocessing can make this waste reusable, and newer reactors also achieve a more efficient use of the available resources than older ones.[64] With a pure fast reactor fuel cycle with a burn up of all the uranium and actinides (which presently make up the most hazardous substances in nuclear waste), there is an estimated 160,000 years worth of Uranium in total conventional resources and phosphate ore at the price of 60–100 US$/kg.[65]
Thank you for pointing this out. People blithely assume that U235 is available in unlimited supply when it is not.
My own view is that it is a useful partial interim solution that buys us some time. That is worth quite a lot.
1. Net online time for nuclear isn't particularly bad, especially when you consider that other alternatives too go down. [1] Of course you'll need some extra capacity/more plants, but that was anyway the case.
2. I feel this is probably the strongest point that can be held against nuclear. Short-term fuel management is not an issue/already figured out, and climate change is a much quicker risk in the next 50 years, so I'd argue it's still better to go 0-carbon instead of finding a perfect solution right now.
3. I'm not sure if you're referring to proliferation of the fuel or technologies, but both are reasonably well-developed fields that France should not have major problems.
4. Similar to point one - nuclear accidents vs risks/deaths from coal is like comparing flight safety with cars. Sure, airplanes feel unsafe but are statistically MUCH safer than cars. Chernobyl and Fukushima were both avoidable (though that can admitably be said for a lot of accidents). Deaths from pollution itself are in the millions instead. [2]
1. https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliab... 2. https://ourworldindata.org/safest-sources-of-energy
It depends. Are you comparing deaths per kilometer, journey or hour?
Deaths per billion
Type...Journey...km.....Hours
Bus........4.3........0.4.......1.1
Rail.......20.0.......0.6.....30.0
Car........40.0.......3.1....130.0
Plane...170.0......0.05....30.8
Do you want to know the likelihood of dying on your next trip, the next kilometer or in the next hour?
I'm pro-nuclear, but the need to be circumspect about safety is real.
I always think of a Bruce Cockburn song, "Radium Rain", written in 1986 when visiting Germany right after Chernobyl:
Every day in the paper
You can watch the numbers rise
No such event can overtake us here
We're much too wise
In the meantime, don't eat anything that grows
And don't breathe when the cars go bySome reactors don't have this risk, but I'm not read on it.
2 - For the spent fuel, France has plenty of strategically maintained relationships in what used to be West African colonies with uranium mines. Why do you think we sent the army during the Mali war ? We cultivate those alliances because they bring a lot on the table, from resources to routes and bases. Nuclear is doubly interesting for us, because we can source it even if Russia or China decide to tell us to go to hell. In case of a conflict, this is priceless.
3 - I don't know anything about proliferation, so can't answer this one.
4 - Accident mitigation is the big problem, IMO. I've seen how they operate inside, and let's just say I'm glad the people that designed the thing were very, very, _very_ good at their job. Because the ones maintaining it have a very relaxed attitude. And the plants are pushed to produce way past their initial expected life span. But I insist, I'm amazed at how good engineers of the 70' were. Those plants are old tech, but they are incredible. However, even if the probability of an accident is low (there are triple safety mechanisms everywhere), the severity of a potential accident is such that I consider nuclear disasters a huge risk that we don't take seriously enough. What's more, it nourishes the growing anti-nuclear sentiment, so we should really get our act together.
Global warming effects are global, non-linear and there are still many unknowns, which makes it more risky. Nuclear risks are local and the harm is well known. Also nuclear energy is anti-fragile (more disasters means saver plants).
I believe we are far too cautious with building new nuclear plants. Not because I think that nuclear energy is not dangerous, but I believe global warming is a far greater risk.
EDIT: to be clear, I'm not asking this as a backhanded question. I'm genuinely curious why this is not seen as a "solved problem", at least in a country with relatively strong government institutions
Just 1 long term waste storage has ever been built in the world, plant productivity has always been relatively low (initial manufacturing delays, refueling, minor accidents, refurbishments), many anti-proliferation techniques just over-produce rad-waste.
Oh, and if we were to buildout nuclear globally how long would the ore reserves last?
And it’s not as easy as recycling empty glass bottles… the French struggled to keep their breeders online and keep them economical (but then the military we’re still happy so…)
2. Solved problem. Spent fuel is not really an issue, we have solutions and areas to put it in both Europe and the USA. Only green Luddites hold it back. Storage really does not take up a lot of space.
3. Next to none if the right type of fuel stock and reactor is chosen. Obviously security comes in, but that is also a solved issue
4. Lots of modern designs literally cannot go critical, I suggest we use those, instead of old designs just because they're "a known known".
5. don't build reactors that can go critical near known tsunami shorlines.
6. At worst we'll surely have fusion by the end of the century and can then retire the nuclear plants. Solar and wind without a 100x improvement in battery storage tech do not make sense right now as the sole producer of energy like a lot of unrealistic "environmental" groups claim.
Hard to say tbh. But these reactors probably aren't offline as much as you think. They shut down for 1 month every 18-24 months for refueling.
> 2. Spent fuel?
France is the world leader in this regard. Remember that 17% of France's entire power comes from _recycled_ nuclear. But if you want to see what their entire nuclear waste. This is _decades_ worth, and I'm betting much smaller than you expected.[0] (coal is doing this on a a daily or weekly basis). Just for fun, let's look at Russia's too.[1] We're literally just talking a warehouse. People vastly overestimate the waste and what to do with it. It is fine where it is for hundreds of years. The only "problem" that we have with "long term storage" is how to store it somewhere where if somehow all knowledge was lost that future humans with no radiation detecting equipment could accidentally release waste (quite a high bar, and not one we're concerned with other long lasting waste like lead or heavy metals). We have a few hundred years to figure that out.
> 3. Proliferation risk?
None? It is France. They already have nuclear weapons. But while we're talking about it, Megatons to Megawatts[2] has been the best deproliferation project in history, reducing the number of nuclear warheads by over 20,000.
> 4. Accident mitigation?
Very low. This is also over estimated. We have a very early reactor which no other country besides Russia built because it had the ability to explode. And we have another event where we didn't know earthquakes could happen of that size until basically right before said earthquake happened. These are major disasters, but the two should not be conflated. Even including these, they are far less environmentally damaging than the fossil fuels we've been using. The major problem with nuclear is that disasters are both temporally and spatially localized. There's advantages and disadvantages to this in terms of dealing with the consequences. On one hand, it is a lot to clean up. On the other hand the country that created the disaster is the one that suffers the most (as opposed to what we're seeing with oil spills and the entire climate crisis, which is not temporally localized and thus the danger is not weighted properly).
[0] https://twitter.com/Orano_usa/status/1182662569619795968
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5uN0bZBOic&t=105s
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megatons_to_Megawatts_Program
> None? It is France. They already have nuclear weapons. But while we're talking about it, Megatons to Megawatts[2] has been the best deproliferation project in history, reducing the number of nuclear warheads by over 20,000.
More nuclear trained personnel, designs, materials, and plants mean more opportunities for someone to acquire technology or materials.
The term you're referring to is capacity factor. Nuclear power typically has the highest capacity factor of any energy source. [1] [2] For reference, nuclear is 92%, while wind is 35% and photovoltaic solar at 25%.
> 2. Spent fuel?
It can be reprocessed, reclaiming over 90% of fuel. Even without reprocessing, nuclear fuel's energy density is such that a tiny amount of waste is produced per unit of energy. For comparison, the sum total of all of the USA's nuclear electricity production occupies a volume the footprint of a football field, and 10 yards high. [3]
> 3. Proliferation risk?
Nuclear fuel is refined to about ~20% fissile material. Nuclear weapons typically need over 80% or 90%. Countries would need to build their own enrichment facilities to bring nuclear fuel to weapons grade uranium, and then further refine that to plutonium. If they had such facilities they'd be able to refine natural uranium to weapons grade anyway.
> 4. Accident mitigation?
First of all, even if you include Chernobyl nuclear power (which didn't even have secondary storage) has the lowest fatalities per unit of energy produced [4]. People often neglect the fact that fossil fuels kill millions each year due to air pollution. Renewables like hydroelectricity have had accidents far more devastating that nuclear power [5]. Nuclear plants are expensive because a lot of effort is made to make them safe, and to contain a potential failure. People often forget that the USA had a reactor meltdown analogous to Chernobyl during the Three Mile Island incident. Except nobody died and there was no widespread contamination because the reactor had a big concrete condom over it, unlike Chernobyl.
1. https://www.statista.com/statistics/183680/us-average-capaci...
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capacity_factor#Worldwide
3. https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/5-fast-facts-about-spent-...
4. https://www.statista.com/statistics/494425/death-rate-worldw...
The "Cultural Revolution" began in 1966. In such a context an otherwise avoidable catastrophe may happen.
This Revolution followed the "Great Leap Forward" ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward ), with famines. "In the subsequent famines of the early 1960s popularly attributed to the Great Leap Forward, Henan was one of the hardest hit and millions of lives were lost." Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henan#Modern_Era .
Moreover all this came after a civil war and violent Japanese invasion, during which dams were bombed, causing "massive flooding in Henan" (same source).
In such a context and chain of events a nuclear reactor and its nearby spent fuel may cause some headaches.
Banqiao: predicting and adverting this catastrophe was possible, but given such a context nobody was able to do so.
I've wondered about that. On one hand, the reasoning above makes sense. On the other, people who know far more than I do say there is proliferation risk. I suspect there is something I don't understand.
It seems this is the biggest energy story of the year. The comeback of nuclear energy.
https://smallcaps.com.au/china-supercharge-uranium-race-150-...
The HN discussion on the China story:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29151741
Japan reactivating nuclear reactors:
https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20210501/p2a/00m/0op/00...
UK. Rolls-Royce gets funding to develop mini nuclear reactors:
https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-... (Lazard’s latest annual Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis (LCOE 15.0) shows the continued cost-competitiveness of certain renewable energy technologies on a subsidized basis and the marginal cost of coal, nuclear and combined cycle gas generation.)
When probed on how to address intermittency, many wind and solar advocates propose things like hydrogen storage, giant flywheels, compressed air, or other solutions that are currently in the prototyping stage and have yet to actually be deployed to a grid and demonstrate viability.
This is the chief advantage of nuclear power: it works and we have over half a century of production experience with it. Betting on one of those storage solutions panning out is betting on a big unknown.
At that price nuclear is already dramatically cheaper than coal - about half as expensive based on the analysis you linked.
The thing is, it's not clear which externalities are priced into renewables. For instance, is the cost of cleaning up this disaster where rare earth metals are mined/refined priced into wind power? [1] Burying the turbine blades forever? [2] How about the cost of the global scale e-waste problem yielded by covering the earth in solar panels which last 30 years? [3] How about power storage - all that lithium?
I'm fine with nuclear, I'm fine with wind, I'm fine with solar. There's no such thing as "green" just shades of black.
Whatever gets us off carbon fuels - yesterday. I strongly doubt the pricing is what's reflected in those charts - they tend to underprice the externalities of everything non-Nuclear. Even if they don't though, I don't really care, at this point decarbonizing is worth paying double for power. I'm not sure how good a deal we're getting is going to matter when we live on Waterworld.
[1] https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20150402-the-worst-place-...
[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-02-05/wind-turb...
[3] https://www.wired.com/story/solar-panels-are-starting-to-die...
The price being very low often reflects the fact that, at that time, this energy is basically worthless/useless. And in fact, prices have even gone negative, meaning "please stop feeding this useless energy into the grid".
So low renewable prices are not necessarily a good sign, and can in fact just be the economic indicator for the limited usefulness of renewable energy.
In 2019, China had a new target of 200 GWe of nuclear generating capacity by 2035, which is 7.7% out of predicted total electricity generating capacity of 2600 GWe.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China
So with about 50 GWe from 50 reactors today adding another 150 gives you the same goal of about 200 GWe. Unless we're talking SMRs because then the goal just got reduced to a fraction of the original.
This may be more complicated than that, see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29159944
> Japan reactivating nuclear reactors:
Japan invested on nuclear then nowadays don't want it anymore but now needs energy. One has to see them canceling their planned phase-out, as "in March 2021, only 11 percent of Japanese said they wanted that nuclear energy generation be discontinued immediately. Another 49 percent was asking for a gradual exit from nuclear energy" ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Japan#Post-Fu... )
> UK. Rolls-Royce gets funding
"£195m cash injection from private firms and a £210m grant" are ridiculous sums. In France Macron announced 1 billion €: given that nuclear research already burnt ~900 millions € per year (public research), a fair part of the 2.2 billions allocated to the CEA's civilian programs, this isn't decisive.
> Japan invested on nuclear then nowadays don't want it anymore but now needs energy. One has to see them canceling their planned phase-out, as "in March 2021, only 11 percent of Japanese said they wanted that nuclear energy generation be discontinued immediately. Another 49 percent was asking for a gradual exit from nuclear energy" ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Japan#Post-Fu... )
Wow. To have even ~40% of the population not opposing nuclear after a national trauma like Fukushima, shows their sophistication as a people.
Hang on, China also announced a couple of months ago to build 43 new coal-fired power plants.
It's not that long ago - perhaps a decade - that China was building a new coal-fired power plant every 10 days or so. Not small ones, but on the same scale as the largest coal-fired power plant we had in Australia at the time.
I mention this as a counterpoint to any 'If China's doing it, it must make sense' fallacy.
It makes sense if you realize
1. China pledges to peak carbon emission by 2030
2. Any increase in emission before 2030 will increase China's peak carbon allowance afterward.
3. Coal plants are cheap to build. Who cares if you only run them at 30% load factor for their entire lifespan.
4. Cap and trade between countries mean the carbon credit will worth a lot in the near future.
China seems to be adding ~30GW of coal, 70GW of wind, ~50GW of solar, and ~6 GW of nuclear power/year to its grid.
I do like there is a large market to this startup. Hopefully that will result in a somewhat price-competitive reactor design. But I doubt that will happen for another 10 years.
I think solar/wind/battery will eat the lunch of any new nuclear plant in cost once it goes online.
Hoping for the best!
I am wondering what Germany is going to do. They have bet heavily on wind & solar (apparently they haven't check how many sunny days Germany has...) with the backup from Russian gas from Nord Stream 1/2 (for some reason this gas is "clean" although burning it produces CO2). If everyone around will switch to nuclear, what I hope will happen, they can end up with the very expensive setup that is still producing a lot of CO2.
I am afraid that Germany will try to enforce ban on nuclear by European Union (what they can do, since Brexit Germany is in fact ruling UE), as the wrong investment might hurt their economy. I hope France will oppose.
1. Coal,
2. Renewables (Solar, wind, perhaps ocean currents),
3. imported oil.
Coal should be deprecated already. Renewables are dependent on environmental effects, in particular solar doesn't work in emergency situations such as volcano eruptions rendering the sky dark. For oil, we depend on third parties, of which we know that they do not have our best interests at heart.
It is depressing to see the political situations on these metrics, especially the idea which gets pushed now, which claims that everything will be alright if we just optimize our energy consumption. It ain't gonna happen. People won't meaningfully reduce their energy-consumption, at least not in a way that would justify the use of fossil fuels.
So what are we left with? Nuclear is the only good bet you could make right now, while waiting out on fusion.
edit: I often think of this meme which goes around, talking about the fact that people are much more willing to donate to a single child in need, rather than a group of children who equally need help. People are prone to take action when they feel like their individual action makes an impact.
I feel like this is similar to the fossil fuels - vs - nuclear debate. We know, that about 20mil ppl die every single year due to air pollution. We also know, that a very small, countable number of people died of nuclear accidents, in the complete history of humanity, ever, in total.
Yet we seem to think that the few nuclear accident's fatalities are worse than the ones caused by air pollution. Why? Because we are in some way biased to give more meaning to individual events, rather than rates of change that are around us. And it'll break our backs if we don't carefully examine the problem at hand.
Germanys relationship with Nuclear power had been one with Tons of absurdity from the get to go. To name a few examples (in no specific order):
- When West Germany decided where they should (temporary) store nuclear waste they had a list of potential abandon mines. While this list wasn't quite up to modern standards it was well thought out. But in the end they choose a mine which not only wasn't on the list, but was known to not be well suited. Reason: Pettiness, east Germany had just done so too, so they choose a mine at the border to east Germany.
- The Anti-Nuclear Power movement in West Germany was partially sponsored and instigated by East Germany (through so where most non-small movements).
- after Fukushima plans to stop using Nuclear Power where moved up costing the State millions due to existing contracts and being questionable. I mean the danger of Atom power had been well understood at that point in question, Fukushima didn't change this, nor did it unearth any (not already well known) huge flaws. So this asks the question if it is so important why wasn't it started years earlier, if it isn't why move so abrupt?
- Germany loves importing nuclear power, not only from France but also from other countries with lower safety standards of which the reactors aren't that far of Germany (geologically seen).
> 1. Coal
Yes, from Poland
> 2. Renewables
Yes, definetly
> Solar
Already plans underway to force every new home to have solar panels on its roof, regardless of the direction of the gabel and regardless how non-significant solar energy is in Germany anyways. Existing home-owners love the idea of increasing construction costs for future home-owners...
> Wind
Already plans underway to massively increase density of windmills per km, regardless that the existing mills already are turned off for most of the year (because it would melt the grid to keep them running), regardless that we're chopping down huge amounts of trees to make room for them, regardless of the environmental impact of planting unremovable kilo-tons of concrete footing into the ground
> Ocean Currents
No, for two reasons. One: Maintenance costs make this technology inefficient (rust). Two: Since we're world champions in moral soundness our whole tidal-range-gifted coastline is deemed a national park and as such is forever excluded from any such infrastructure work
> 3. imported oil
Already doing that.
I fear, unless there is some crucial pain of whatever sorts on behalf of the average German, our nomenclatura will continue to proceed with the current polciy of "nearshoring responsibility". Because:
> It ain't gonna happen. People won't meaningfully reduce their energy-consumption
German consumers still don't do that, despite paying the highest electricity bills in the developed world (almost twice of what the French pay). Apparently we can still afford to kick down the can (or rather to kick it across the border).
I'm not familiar with this. Is this a common problem in Germany? Are southern states like Baden-Württemberg more afflicted or less compared to more northern ones like Schleswig-Holstein?
1. Renewables: 41%
2. Coal: 26%
3. Natural gas: 17%
4. Nuclear: 12%
https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-energy-c...New solar and wind have fallen drastically in price over the past decade and look like a very good bet right now.
That’s usually not true fwiw, germany tends to export when nobody needs the electricity e.g. fair weather with high winds, especially week-ends.
And it’s not so much exporting as dumping, german electricity prices regularly go negative because winds crush the grid and they need to shift it so they don’t melt.
The “collaborative” aspect is that france has a large and resilient grid well connected to less provisioned southern neighbors (wholesale prices in spain and italy tend to be quite high), so they can arbitrate and profit some.
But they also must, because continental europe is a synchronous grid so if germany melts down it fucks up the entire continent.
Russia will provide them all the energy they need, and the US will provide them defense against Russia. Perfect!
- edit -
Is it still morally sound if you outsource the immorality elsewhere?
If that's what it takes to be morally sound - then bring it on destiny, I say, bring it on!
Edit: This a German's attempt at sarcasm, please indugle me!
I get German Greens have a very specific agenda for historical reasons, but sheesh.
[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cutting_off_one%27s_nose_to_...
The demand for power in India and China is outstripping everyone else. And it is still stuck using coal power. India and China do NOT have land (for renewables) commensurate with the population or energy demand. Also one of the biggest sources of renewable hydro power is a geopolitical flashpoint for India vs China (https://www.indiatoday.in/news-analysis/story/china-proposed...). Almost a hundred soldiers died in an India vs China battle recently around this area.
Both India and China have unilaterally rejected COP26 restrictive measures from developed nations... simply because it is not possible to reduce the power demand coming from populations (the size of Europe) being lifted up from poverty.
The only answer for the next 50 years is nuclear tech. And France is literally the only game in town right now. So let us pray, this happens sooner than later. You do NOT want coal from 2 BILLION people in the atmosphere.
The last point, we just don't know how to build nuclear economically anymore. The process is so bureaucratic and slow it becomes infeasible to finance without major interventions. Letting Chinese or Russian companies build it from the standpoint of Europe is a geopolitical challenge and a security risk.
All this time and money would be perhaps spent better elsewhere. In Europe, we are not able to build a nuclear powerplant in 15 years, so that is lots of time for research and development and even building something useable. It is very likely, most of the renewable sources will become more economical and nuclear less even less. We might devise a scheme to store energy by e.g. splitting salt (NaOH) into sodium metal, hydrogen and oxygen and later combining sodium with water to NaOH again, while getting hydrogen as a byproduct and lots of electrical current. It is a simple process, we "just" have to scale it and develop it further. The first half of it is well known for 100 years and was used at industrial scale. Currently, we just split NaCl directly to obtain sodium... The second half is described in patents by Lockheed-Martin that are long expired. You can read more in this diagram: https://www.orgpad.com/s/iV3vbi
Btw. Slowakia has a lot of nuclear too and here in Czechia, we have a conversation about building new reactors in Dukovany too. For Czechia, the approach seems to be misguided as you can read here (Google Translated from Czech): https://denikreferendum-cz.translate.goog/clanek/32812-cesky...
The usual pro-nuclear argument says that nuclear plants are only unsafe if managed incorrectly. However, the West doesn't have the political or economic framework to ensure they will get managed correctly: if you are the leader of the executive of some country, are you going to decomission a plant built 30 years ago that gives the country a lot gW of energy and raise energy prices for everyone, or are you going to risk the very low chance of a serious accident to keep prices down and pass the ball to whomever governs next?
If nuclear is the future, we need an effective process of automatic decommissioning that can bypass governments. That process doesn't exist yet.
You are misunderstanding the growth in power needed. If India and China move towards electric vehicles..... just New Delhi has 12 million cars. Just to compare, London has 2.6 million cars. New York has about 4 million cars.
I don't think people grasp what 2 billion people really means.
“China has reported overnight to be planning 150 new nuclear reactors over the next 15 years — more than have been built around the world since 1980 — a signal that uranium production needs to be stepped up, fast and soon.”
That’s a reported planned investment of $440B.
https://smallcaps.com.au/china-supercharge-uranium-race-150-...
And actually doing that as we speak, instead of "planning".
If not, I hope France seriously considers using breeder reactors to reduce leftover radioactive material.
Otherwise, I think this is fantastic news. In fact even if they build light water reactors I think it is the ideal base load solution to bridge the gap from oil and coal.
France is one of the few countries that do recycle spent fuel. https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/frances-efficiency-in-t...
France is a nuclear capable country, so the proliferation risk is fairly low from what I understand. They could even sell the plants abroad and bring the waste back to France to be recycled.
Germany is not a nuclear capable country, and I am not sure how they feel about France being their primary source of energy (or enriched uranium, if they have their own plants). Hopefully they prefer French nuclear energy to Russian oil and gas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8ApH-0YHkA
After Superphenix I don't think they are in any hurry to develop the LMFBR.
(Answering again as the previous answer was attached to the wrong parent when the articles were merged)
I know there are cases of decommissioning too early, or even a reactor that was fully built but not even started operation (I think Tom Scott had a video on that?), but I don't think that's the common case.
There was also a scandal a few years ago when the state-owned nuclear construction company Areva acquired Le Creusot Forge. It turned out that there had been a decades long coverup of weaknesses in the steel forged there for nuclears plants, and falsification of documents.
The problem here isn't "political will".
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamanville_Nuclear_Power_Plan...
The last delivered reactor was Civaux-2 (generation II), in 1999. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civaux_Nuclear_Power_Plant
Then in 2002 the project Flamanville-3 was launched (a generation III reactor, the "EPR", first one of its kind), and the building phase started in 2007. It is a major failure, not delivered, at least 11 years behind schedule, and will cost at least 19.1 billion euros (initial budget: 3.4 billions €). See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamanville_Nuclear_Power_Plan...
However, they were not expecting this much. The reasons that they are pushing are:
1. Lack of proper trained personnel
2. More constraints imposed during the projects due to Fukushima
3. First design of that kind
And as you said, the last nuclear reactor to be finished in France was 20 years ago[0]. The people who worked on that last plant were probably the one who worked on plants during the 70s, 80s and 90s and retired right after. It fits with reason 1.
[0]: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centrale_nucl%C3%A9aire_en_Fra...
It was scheduled to take 54 months to build when construction started in 2007:
https://web.archive.org/web/20110613091002/http://www.neimag...
The last reactors to enter commercial operation in France, the 2 units at Civaux Nuclear Power Plant, took 13 and 11 years from construction start in 1988/1991 to commercial operation in 2002:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civaux_Nuclear_Power_Plant
I wonder if EDF succumbed to hubris in thinking that they could build a new reactor design twice as fast as the last-completed reactors, or if they published optimistic numbers because they thought that there was more institutional tolerance for constant slippage than for estimating unhappily large numbers right at the start.
No, it officially is a "tête de série" (meaning among the firsts of a series). It cannot be a prototype because this very model, the EPR, was sold to Finland and the corresponding project (Olkiluoto-3) started 2 years before Flamanville's.
> the one who worked on plants during the 70s, 80s and 90s and retired right after
In such huge heavy industry projects occupying tens of thoosands persons there is a constant stream of newcomers. Moreover this industry must maintain existing (exploited) reactors, and a non-neglectable portion of skills needed when building are also needed during maintenance. Also: many critical specialties, especially outside the nuclear isle, are qualifications built upon a non nuclear-specific trade (concrete, welding...): a "standard" professional can be trained in nuclear-specific skills in months. In any case the industry (which isn't exactly a low-cost lo-margin one...) has to manage human resources, and to find ways to maintain critical and very specific skills.
Honestly I don't know if we can really build nuclear plants anymore, at least for a reasonable cost in a timely fashion.
[1] https://www.franceculture.fr/economie/scandale-de-la-forge-d...
It was expected to cost 3.3B€, but in the end will probably cost around 19B€.
Hoping for companies like NuScale, maybe they can get a continuous operation going and churn out cheaper and cheaper plants.
Some in the community seem to think that the market will 10-20x due to the world waking up to the immediate, pressing need for nuclear. (Insufficient wind/solar capacity, storage, transmission, etc.)
There are also some interesting behaviors going on in the uranium market, where certain players are buying up all of the supply. It's short-squeezeish in nature.
China announcement, French announcement. US uranium exploration. Lots going on.
https://josephcollinsul.medium.com/the-uranium-bull-thesis-c...
- shut down the Fessenheim plant, one of the most reliable one. Yes it was the oldest, but not by far, and reports from the nuclear authority are pretty clear that this plant was in a much better shape than others built just a few years afterwards (Bugey, one year later which is now older than Fessenheim was when shut down, and Blayais started 4 years later).
- promised to reduce the share of nuclear in the electricty mix to 50% by 2025.
- shut down Astrid, the French research project for 4th generation nuclear (which is the only long term viable path for nuclear, since there will never be a shortage of fertile material (U238 or Thorium) whereas fissile one is pretty limited. Breeding reactors also solve the very-long lived nuclear waste issue).
He did all of this when he was trying to seduce electors from the green party. Now he don't seem to care about them, but who knows for how long…
Regarding the closing of Fessenheim, it seems like a sensible decision. The central was designed to last 40 years and long exceeded its expiration date. In the last 10 years it had roughly one incident per year with graver and graver consequences. And in any case, France would have started lose a lot of money because, due to the geographical position and the risk it pose, its neighbours, Switzerland and Germany were not really happy with it and had started to repetedly attack the decision to maintain it open in courts.
The fact that a politician had to take this decision (and not engineers) is in my opinion the most shocking part. It shows that the ANS probably became complacent with the state of security of centrals. Probably similar to finanicial markets or aviation regulators. And generally when that happens it's the begining of catastrophes.
I wish it was it, but it's not what's happening. Macron is currently campaigning for his reelection and has decided to adopt a really conservative tone for his campaign: it's all about “fighting islamism”, reducing welfare, etc., etc., the strong nuclear narrative fits clearly in this tone.
> Regarding the closing of Fessenheim, it seems like a sensible decision. The central was designed to last 40 years and long exceeded its expiration date. In the last 10 years it had roughly one incident per year with graver and graver consequences.
It was designed for 40 years, but so did every other plants that were given a extended lifetime approval. Actually, it's not uncommon at all to design a power plant with a specific lifetime in mind, and extending it afterwards when you realize it hasn't wore out too much (fun facts, some systems were dead long before reaching the 40 years span they had been designed for, and have been replaced even though it wasn't part of the original plan). And as I said, Fessenheim was one of the best plant of that generation when it comes to incidents, it had a much better rating than several plants built a bit later and which will still be in service for the next decade.
> And in any case, France would have started lose a lot of money because, due to the geographical position and the risk it pose, its neighbours, Switzerland and Germany were not really happy with it
I don't know where you take that from but in reality, France have to pay a huge sum of money to Germany as compensation for the shut-down because part of Fessenheim's plant (17.5%) was owned by the land of Bade-Wurtemberg. The overall price that will be paid until the end of the compensation period (supposed to last until 2041) is still unknown because it will depend on the market price of electricity on that period, but it's expected to be between a faction of billion to a few billion euros.[1]
> The fact that a politician had to take this decision (and not engineers) is in my opinion the most shocking part. It shows that the ANS probably became complacent with the state of security of centrals. Probably similar to finanicial markets or aviation regulators. And generally when that happens it's the begining of catastrophes.
This is indeed a serious risk with regulation authorities, but in the case of the ASN it's proven pretty reliable in recent days: rthe 50 years lifetime extension was granted in exchange of a huge overhaul of the existing plants (“le grand carénage)” costing several billions, to add a lot of new safety equipment, most of them designed with the Fukushima accident in mind.
[1]: https://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2017/04/05/20002-2017040...
Fessenheim had been a thorn in the back of previous governments for years. Sometimes political move are not logical from a technical standpoint but can be seen as intermediate step in a larger plan. I don't blame him for that.
Astrid though seems to be the real mistake. The new CEA boss at the time said that[0] we don't need that kind of reactor because uranium is cheap as nobody wants nuclear anymore since Fukushima. This is such a stupid reason that I cannot believe to be the real one.
[0] https://www.lefigaro.fr/sciences/nucleaire-le-patron-du-cea-...
New timeline means 16 to 17 years between planning and operation, thus 16-17 years of CO2 and pollution before a single kWh
https://www.wabe.org/new-delay-for-georgia-nuclear-reactors-...
we are running out of time! the transition to WWS is faster and cheaper.
see: https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-...
Perhaps we can invite Slovakia or Russia to build in other countries, but there's no knowing if they could train local workforces accomplish what they have.
Same from people all over europe who for decades pushed down France for its Nuclear efforts
Now that the US is working toward catching up, they all voice they pro-"US"-nuclear
It's very sad, europe is full of cowards
But yet again China ahead of everyone else because they are free from these little "marketshare" fights
There's been a lot of talk about nuclear (both fusion and fission) recently, and it's great news!
Germany never had a substantial nuclear deployment. It peaked around 20GW. About 8 remains. The disappearance of 16GW from the grid was a complete non event. No blackouts. No instability. It just happened gradually and now its gone. The remaining 8 are tiny compared to daily fluctuations in wind and solar that are also not an issue. In terms of base load it is completely irrelevant whether it stays or goes. It's certainly not worth paying a lot for. If you replace 20GW with a few hundred GW of wind and solar, you end up with plenty of capacity and baseload. That's more or less what happened in the last few decades. The French already import excess power from Germany and elsewhere below the price they are selling their own nuclear power quite often.
Nuclear never mattered in Germany other than for military strategic reasons that stopped being relevant when Russia withdrew their tanks from the DDR 30 years ago. All that remains is cold war era obsolete plants that are expensive to keep going. Shutting them down was going to happen no matter what (because they are obsolete and near end of life) and the decision to not build replacement plants was pretty much a constant. The debate around that was pretty much over before Fukushima already. All that did was fast track some of the decision making. It remains a popular and uncontroversial decision in Germany.
Macron is announcing intentions and plans in the middle of an election season where Macron is under a lot of pressure from right wing populist parties. This nuclear push is very much motivated by nationalist sentiments and Macron is in damage control mode as he's losing voters to several right wing parties; some of which you might classify as far right or even neo fascist.
We'll see what remains of those intentions and plans after the elections. Election time posturing is not to be confused with actually policy to spend many billions on nuclear. Assuming he actually wins, he might find himself once more forming a government with a few other parties that will have strong opinions on this topic and not a lot of budget to allocate to a wide range of topics competing for attention. Until that government is a reality, all you have is a politician trying to stay in power trying to appeal to voters currently entertaining the thought to vote for someone else. Even with these announcements, we're still talking a net decline in nuclear capacity over time. It's just slowing it down slightly.
Personally, I think it is wise for the French to keep the knowledge to build reactors going for another generation. Additionally, exporting that knowledge to e.g. the UK is good for their economy. Hinkley Point C is being built by French EDF. Of course, there are plenty of scandals surrounding that particular setup related to cost overruns, delays, etc. That seems to be a constant with nuclear. One thing is certain, it won't be cheap power. Gas is cheaper, even with the recent price increases. Saving money is not a reason to go nuclear. It never was. Whether the UK ends up buying more is very much up in the air. The drama around Hinkley Point C is probably not helping the nuclear case currently. And having to send the money to France is probably not helping that case.
thorium won't last much more, and it's not even viable at this point, this seems like a desperate attempt to maintain the power consumption per capita for some more years before the inevitable collapse.
Are you talking about the sale of its power sector to GE in 2014? It is mostly about turbines, not the nuclear aspect, which is more typically under the expertise of Areva NC / Orano Cycle <https://www.orano.group/en>.
Turbines used in nuclear power plants as well as nuclear ships. That sale was/is a major scandal in France.
He is a realist, but in this field we need to go beyond and to open big money for the research into small and decentralized nuclear power.
Every citizen have to know the pros and the cons, and be educated to the risks. Energy provide good living standards, but we have to know the drawbacks and we have to account for externalities in every business model.
This will be the only way to keep our standards of living and keep an habitable home.
> This will be the only way to keep our standards of living and keep an habitable home.
Jancovici uses physics and maths to prove we definitely won't have western standard of living for 8B people. Even for 2, not for long.
There was ASTRID, another sodium cooled fast reactor design, that was cancelled a couple of years ago before it got off the drawing board.
I have a question around waste management though: Do we know if there are big improvements here? IOW - https://apnews.com/article/washington-business-nuclear-waste... bothers me.
Injuries and death are sadly a part of life at all large industrial plants.
In France there are reactors, now they are OLD.
OLD is a cost, and also a risk.
France already has gaz (cost is hight), or hydrolic (water daws are all in use at its max in France), but it seems France doesnt want to go the german way and switch on the coal power plants.
The press article mention green peace, while most of people think gren peace are communicant people who doesnt get aware about science news and will applause germany for leaving nuclear (but going COAL) and blame france for keeping nuclear (but having low CO2 energy ratio) like if wastes are worst than CO2 while CO2 is nowday issue.
Government tryed to open the energy market in France, but since it has done that, the consumer prices are only getting highter and highter while the historic company EDF is making profit, and not the new comers who are often at the edge to termination plan. Also, Having a company not being EDF (governement has 80% part of it) to own a reactor is a risk, because profit always come first for a company.
Having new reactor will give more low-CO2 emission energy and give more time to have more decent work (r&d) on renewable energy and stockage (not daws since we already use them all here) probably.
There are risk to have reactor, and also wastes, but the CO2 costs look the best until there is something else.
PS: I'm not a macron side voter; I think many french people think like this; I'm not backing anything with source, because it's just what it is on people minds i guess and i agree a bit to that; so I'm just sharing this here for the discussion
>France derives about 70% of its electricity from nuclear energy, due to a long-standing policy based on energy security. Government policy is to reduce this to 50% by 2035. [1]
according to the target set in the "Energy transition for green growth" bill.
[1] https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-pr...
Flamanville has been super disappointing however in France.
Assuming they really set this project in motion, there's plenty of time for the next government to cancel it.
https://www.google.com/search?q=epr+emergency+feedwater+syst...
I guess they have to build with the tech they have, but it would be nice if they'd spent the last few decades researching better designs.
Based on first principles, nuclear is the cheapest. Its historical path dependency that it isn't.
Fission breeder reactors have the potential to use the least amount of land, be the safest form of energy, have the lowest cost of fuel (essentially free)and use the least amount of total resources (steel, concrete and so on).
These could be used for all kinds of applications, including creating of medical isotopes, nuclear batteries, industrial heat and power.
Non if this is new, these insights are from the 70s and in 50-100 years people will look back and ask 'why were these people don't doing it? They had all the technology, it makes no sense'.
France were about to build new nuclear energy reactors anyways. They had a 5-8 new plants in planning for this decade.
At least we'll have a debate topic during next year election cycle that is not immigration or Islam - that will be a change.
The job of the nuclear security agency will be tricky next year : they'll have to double their effort ("The President does not want an accident making the news") but also stay quieter than usual ("The President does not want any kind of small incident making the news".)
They're independant in theory, of course, and they want to do their job well, but they have biases and bosses who have bosses, etc... I doubt they'll let anything big slip just for électoral purpose, but the scrutiny on their job (especially from the left wing press) will be interesting to see...