I was just about to shrug the whole last 6 years off as a huge waste of my life, but I just learned that IBM recently put together a research group specifically dedicated to this idea. But no matter how much money or manpower they have, I know enough about this area to know that they missed some windows of observation that will neve be repeated, and I can count on one hand the people (aside from myself) who have intelligently documented this phenomenon and have given it enough thought to gain some possibly practical insight into the topic. So in a way, I finally feel vindicated. As weird as the idea is, at least I'm not the only one who thinks it may have some profitable, practical application.
To throw in the towel in this uphill battle, or not? Or pick up the phone and call IBM and see if they'll give me a consulting gig? In other words, something that 99% of people I've come across have considered a completely useless area of specialty has suddenly become interesting and I feel like I have the advantage since the insights I've gained are the result of unique events that will never be replicated.
I feel vindicated, yet the last 6 years or so have been soooo frustrating trying to convince people of something that seemed so intuitive and obvious to me, but left most people I spoke to scratching their heads. And yet, I imagine that in the next few years, even more people will be looking into this area.
Anybody have any ideas? Any perspective and experience in a similar position would be appreciated. The "I told you so" factor is good ... but I've spent soo much time and personal resources on something that has progressed at a glacial pace. I guess what I'm saying is, throw in the towel and call IBM, or keep trying the startup attempt route?
Not saying it's because I'm smarter or anything, it's just a freak accident that resulted from my background and personal interests which came together in some unexpected ways to give me insight into what was worth paying to in this area while most people would have dismissed the whole area as not worth paying serious attention to to begin with.
So - question is:
a) Screw it, it's taking too long
or
b) It may be an uphill struggle but this is a good sign that it's at least worth continuing
Then why not reveal the idea? I'm curious...
If it is really a good idea, find a partner who complements your skills. Assembling a team is probably the hardest part. If you can't assemble one, all odds are against you, no matter how good the idea is. If you don't have people at your disposal, you have to convince other people the idea is good; you'll have to prove it some way or another.
If you're like my friend, who has extensive knowledge beyond what competitors would have in several years, the idea is unobvious enough that even if you outline it understandably, you don't have worries about competitors. If it isn't at that level of sophistication, my bet is that even if competitors haven't thought through things as thoroughly as you have, they will have implementations that are simply good enough.
Yet another is to publish your idea and possibly get hero status when someone that understands the relevance of your idea and has the necessary resources/skills to make it happen does so. You'd probably feel good about those 6 years spent thinking about it and researching it not being completely in vain.
I'm a bit freaked out thinking that great ideas can die with their originator if they never publish...
And since the legal departments of most major corporations use game theory in analyzing transactions, their lawyers would easily tell them it's in their favor to pay me what I ask for just to get me to agree to shut up.
That's just crazy enough to possibly work. I wish I could up vote you like 20 times for inspiring this thought.
Going it alone is hard. It's necessary if no one agrees with you, or no one else would do it right. But here? I don't see the compelling reason not to team up with IBM. You'll cooperate with people and see valuable work done; you'll be part of something good and effective.
btw don't make threats lightly, and maybe you shouldn't post about them in public in advance.
edit: i don't know why it's dead. and your reply to this is dead too and i can't reply to it. but the parent of this comment is not dead.
One of the guys running the project works at an office on Madison Ave. I'd love to start a startup based on this, because I just know it'll be cool, yet I can't say since finding out about this recent development I haven't spent, oh, 5 hours or so since fantasizing about what it would be like to pay off all my credit cards, have health insurance, benefits, etc. and go to work on Madison avenue near Central Park every day.
And instead of arguing with people about the idea, I would be in an environment where people who understand it would appreciate the insights I have. Plus they have a pretty big budget to play with from what I understand.
Just getting paid to do what I've been doing for fun ... and appreciated for once instead of seeing the usual "What the hell are you talking about?" look on people's faces when I've tried to discuss it.
> The try and fail route is more rewarding imho.
I suppose you're right in a way. Maybe both? Maybe, "I've tried, it didn't work out because of timing, but now I can apply my insights and sell out in style!" (?)
When I started, I was initially a bit distraught at the fact that there were a lot of people taking, and making a lot of money in my space; Everybody with any experience told me "They are solidifying the fact that there is value in that space, go do it better"; If you honestly believe that you can do it better, and you have the option, eh, why not?
About the do it better part, a bit harder. They have resources, but if they're just now starting to figure out what to do ... I know exactly what to do, but ... kinda hard to do it. So far it's a draw outcome wise, but they're making nice salaries doing something I like, meanwhile I lose interest in my gig while I spend more and more time doing this as a side project for free.
So it was more like 6 years observation and thinking in a sort of real-world lab experiment, and only the last year or so of "apply lessons learned".
But since I'm not a programmer, and most programmers I've come across are working on their own projects, I couldn't figure out exactly how to proceed ... and based on the limited feed back I got, whether it was even worth proceeding or if I was just fooling myself and seeing an oasis.
Plus regardless of whether I cared enough, now that I found this out I realize it's a valid thing to more than just me. So now I care more. It's just been a long, unrewarding (except the intellectual curiosity part), clumsy, guideless trip so far.
My "adult" self tells me to give up and move on, or perhaps profit from it by working for "the man" ... but then again, what if I wind up 10 years ago in a situation where I say, "Dammit - I should have tried for just one more year - but instead I gave up and now look what happened - it took off right after I gave up and somebody else is doing it."
However, it sounds like you need two things (er...people). A star programmer and a star evangelist. The first can be had (for a price). The second is harder to find. Either you need to become one or you need to hire someone that already is one.
Reference: http://blog.guykawasaki.com/2007/06/by_the_numbers_.html
Even if the market hasn't changed yet, I'd say that them devoting brainpower/budgets into looking into it full-time might meand that they, too suspect it may change this way. Quite honestly I can't believe it didn't change this way a long time ago.
Instead of having you convince people, why not have some evidence to do the talking for you? Learn to put ideas into UI flow charts, functional specs. Show a paper prototype to customers and see if it is something they would pay for. Do whatever you can so that other programmers won't look at you like a "dreaded idea guy that wants 99% equity."
As for call IBM or try the start-up route, I would at least call them to see where they are with their research.
Stop worrying about programmers. If you have been toying with this idea for 6 years, take another one year and learn how to program. if you're cash strapped there are plenty of online tutorials and good old manuals. If have some cash outsource it to india or elance. if people are paid with money, they sometimes tend not to 'care' what they are working on, but give results.
The fact that IBM is doing research in this field means that they think that it might be worth it to work on this.
I think you need to act on it and if you spent that amount of time mulling it over, checking into things. get it done and see what people think, let the market decide. If someone doesn't get it, explain to them why they should. people thought blogs were stupid, all the other search engines didn't buy into google, now they wish they had.
I was in a similar thought process when i started my site, after i started it i kept coming across competitors i never even heard of. the fact that people are using my site and getting results was my 'vindication', after all there are a lot of other services that guarantee so much but didn't work for some people.
as far a i know ideas are worthless. pg talks about it some where. put it out there and see what happens, if IBM looks into what you are doing and blatantly copies you, sue them, but expect a long drawn-out legal battle that you won't win.
Lastly, people might have a hard time helping you out here if you don't talk about your idea. People might be interested in helping you out, by closely guarding your idea people might not help out.
I ran my previous business for nearly seven years, before throwing in the towel. It was profitable for about six of those seven years, and it kept me in food and houses...but it wasn't a success, by my definition, and I won't twice make the mistake of continuing a business that I don't believe can win in its market...not just get by, but win. Perhaps you're not making that mistake, but I'd suggest you change your tactics immediately. Six years is an awful long time to have nothing to show.
I don't understand why many people are so determined to keep their ideas secret a secret. First off odds are somebody has also though of the same idea. Not every great opportunity is immediately obvious in the early form of the idea. An idea alone does not make a killer startup imo -- execution is very important. Second, if only you have the expertise to make this idea work then all the more reason to share it and hope to find someone that buys into your dream.
Just my two cents worth. From my experience there is nothing more frustrating then not iterating towards your goal.
If what you know is as important as you say it is, then either (a) IBM should be happy to pay you a handsome sum for it, possibly without needing you to commit an endless day job, or (b) you will be able to raise money and finally get that startup off the ground, provided that you can convince investors of your personal ability to start the company. Both of these options are better than what you had on your plate before IBM joined the fray, so I am puzzled by the attitude that comes across in your writing. You sound like you're sulking, which is not only very unattractive to any would-be co-founders or investors, but also contradictory to a rational account of your situation: didn't you just "win"?
* Also, talking to IBM need not imply agreeing to what they want. Find out what they'd offer for your expertise, and what kind of commitment you'd have to make. If it sounds good, take it. If not, do it yourself. You don't lose any of your advantage until you actually spill the beans. Certainly don't use threatening language. Simply based on how you've written this posting and responded to comments, I already have a strong gut-based bias against working with you.
In 96 I did my first startup, based on an algorithmic way of sorting links. Basically somewhere in between Google and del.icio.us. Me and my partner thought that Altavista, which at the time was the best search engine out there, fell short. We secured seed founding in the amount of ca. $100.000 and developed a working prototype of the technology. After this we needed venture capital to create and promote the product. This proved impossible to get. We talked to every VC out there, but the result was the same: "nobody needs another search engine", and "you can't make money on that" I was, however, convinced that the idea was sound so I carried on for almost 1½ years after funding ran out. In the end I had to give up.
It seems to me like you are in a similar situation.
Based on my experience what I think you should do is assess the situation seriously, and have someone you trust help you do this. When you're in the middle of it it is really hard to see the pitfalls and shortcomings of an idea. Look at what alternatives you have, try and write them down with pros and cons of each. Then take a decision. And do it.
Most important: Once you've made the decision don't look back.
Another observation I'd like to point out is that in 6 years, you could have learned to program and done it yourself. I've learned to program and started 3 companies in the past 4 years.
So, my question for you is, do you really believe in this idea enough to do what it takes to make it happen? If not, then go to IBM and milk what you can of it.
And hey, I like applied math, so I’ll probably enjoy coding well enough.
