1A small economic forecaster trained from raw Fed PDFs beat GPT-5 (opens in new tab)(blog.lightningrod.ai)5bturtel17d ago0
2Show HN: Open-source LLM and dataset for sports forecasting (Pro Golf) (opens in new tab)(huggingface.co)7bturtel2mo ago0
3Show HN: Trained an LLM to predict "What will Trump do?" (opens in new tab)(huggingface.co)10bturtel2mo ago2
4What can't be automated? The Last Human Bottleneck (opens in new tab)(bturtel.substack.com)2bturtel2mo ago0
5Future-as-Label: Scalable Supervision from Real-World Outcomes (opens in new tab)(arxiv.org)17bturtel3mo ago0
6TMLR: Outcome-Based Reinforcement Learning to Predict the Future (opens in new tab)(openreview.net)4bturtel5mo ago1
9Foresight-32B Beats Frontier LLMs on Live Polymarket Predictions (opens in new tab)(blog.lightningrod.ai)6bturtel8mo ago0
11Outcome-Based Reinforcement Learning to Predict the Future (opens in new tab)(arxiv.org)99bturtel11mo ago15
13Why humans are still much better than AI at forecasting the future (opens in new tab)(vox.com)5bturtel1y ago1
14LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future (opens in new tab)(arxiv.org)176bturtel1y ago86
15Show HN: Sculptor – Python library for LLM structured data extraction (MIT) (opens in new tab)(github.com)9bturtel1y ago0
