brntsllvn

I'm building a tool that predicts the value of a tax strategy, the 83(b) election, and am trying to understand the return distribution for vc-backed startups at various stages so I can ballpark how valuation evolves the 5 years following when someone joins.

Assuming Gaussian price movement (for Brownian motion) is probably very wrong unless the startup is late stage.

Some research from Angellist suggests power law distribution but does not include failed startups, only those with positive returns.

YC companies seem like a biased but good proxy for what I want but I'm not seeing any consolidated analysis of survival and exit.

I'm looking for high quality analysis, not random blog posts about how 90% of startups fail without attribution.

I'm a tax nerd and software developer. What startup tax questions would you like answered?

Example: what the heck is 83(B) and will it save me money?

I'm building a niche payroll service and need to transfer cash from employers to employees.

Does any provider handle bank verification (e.g. plaid) and cash movement (dwolla) together?

My (brand new) product solves a regulatory compliance problem using GPT.

How would you defend it against competition?

* Competition includes customers building the thing themselves and third party competitors.

* Don't worry about product market fit, distribution channels, audience targeting, MVP features, or any other very valid concerns for early-stage startups. This post only concerns moat.