It has happened, so the probability is non-null:
http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-20037554-93.html
Some Gmail users complained yesterday of suddenly and mysteriously losing e-mails, contacts, and folders. Google originally said 0.29 percent of the user base was affected by the issue but has since revised that figure to less than 0.02 percent, or about 40,000 of the service's 200 million accounts.
They do say that the data would be restored, but I couldn't find a confirmation of how much was not restored. They say that they keep copies of data in multiple data centers as well as on tape.