Note the tide has changed considerably in the Ukraine war in Ukraine's favor once Starlink locked down access - this proves how vital internet access it was to both sides, as once Russia could no longer use stolen terminals their manpower advantage became moot.
So I simply don't get this manufactured outrage - the vast majority of US retirement savings are already tied to the military sector (RTX, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman) via index funds. I personally would have more concern with those laggards in the new age of drone warfare vs the likes of SpaceX and Anduril (when they ipo).
I think this is coincidental correlation. In the same period drone warfare was evolving until it reached some stalemate with an optic-fiber strewn killzone where none of the belligerents have an upper hand, and Ukraine's ballistic missile industry picked up pace, allowing Ukraine to hit far into Russia without relying on American long-range munitions, or needing American permission to use those munitions.
The deep attacks inside Russia would be significantly more difficult without starlink.
Does that justify the price?
Spacex price/sales: 100x-130x
RTX Corporation's (formerly Raytheon Technologies) Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio currently hovers around 2.74 to 2.76. Boeing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio sits at 1.86, Lockheed Martin's (LMT) trailing twelve-month (TTM) price-to-sales (P/S) ratio sits at 1.64. Northrop Grumman's current Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) price-to-sales (P/S) ratio sits at approximately 1.76 to 1.89
So based on the peer comps you provided, SpaceX is overvalued by 50-100x. Your $185 shares are worth about $2.
Fine if you want to take that bet. Not fine if you force (via indexing) the majority of US pension savings to take that bet.
The combined market cap of those four companies is maybe $500-600 billion combined. The total S&P 500 market cap is roughly $45-50 trillion.
So defense contractors represent maybe 1-1.5% of a typical index fund portfolio.
Their current valuation makes absolutely no sense given the size of their business and the next century of business unless they’re going to pull the rug on the US and its allies and increase costs 100x.
I don't hear any concern about SpaceX due to military ties, it's that it seems like financial tricks are being used and forcing it into the markets and it might be seriously unstable.
No.
It's really helpful, but it's not vital.
WRT Ukraine - the drones are now (AIUI) flown with a tethered fibre connection (inside the Ukraine) - because jammers have made radio traffic with drones near impossible for operators
The consumer/ad tech bias of HN is really showing. The app I use to share photos of my kids with my elderly relatives is worth $1.45 trillion, but somehow companies that make freaking EVs, robots, and rocket ships, and AI can’t possibly be worth that much? I’ve been in HN for 16 years and heard so much breathless cheerleading for web apps “changing the world” but now we have companies that really might change the world and it’s a scam?
The sky-high valuation of SpaceX is almost entirely related to it's estimated TAM from AI entreprise solutions, not robots and rocketships. HN news comments have a similar bias against the sky-high valuations of OpenAI and Anthropic.
That’s not how TAM works. The valuation of each business unit isn’t just a simple proportion of its TAM like that. In the SpaceX/xAI merger, which was just a few months ago, the rocket company was valued at $1 trillion and the AI company at $250 billion: https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/how-math-works-175-...
EDIT: To elaborate: TAM is not a valuation for a specific business. It’s a ceiling in the size of the market the business targets. AI has an astronomical TAM because you can sell AI into almost every market. E.g. shipping and logistics is a $10 trillion business. You could sell AI into that market and capture some of that revenue. But if one business has a $10 trillion TAM and another is $5 trillion, that doesn’t mean the valuation of the first business is double the second one.
https://indexes.nasdaqomx.com/docs/2026_May_NDX_Changes_FAQ....
Q: What is the purpose of modifying the liquidity and seasoning requirements? Could this change result in the inclusion of illiquid securities in the index?
A: Most indexes require a liquidity threshold for new constituents, often as a minimum share count or average daily trading value. For the Nasdaq-100®, securities must have a three-month average daily traded value of at least $5 million. Since only very large companies – typically with full market capitalizations over $100 billion as of March 2026 – would have qualified for fast entry, they are expected to easily and quickly meet this requirement. However, an average daily traded value of at least $5 million from the time of listing will still be required for fast entry candidates. Many indexes have included seasoning requirements to ensure that traditional IPOs undergo price discovery and stabilization before being included. These requirements were originally intended to prevent small or little-known companies from entering too soon. However, there is now a trend toward IPOs being larger and more mature than in the past. Companies expected to meet the fast entry threshold are likely to be among the world’s most significant and well-known firms. High investor interest and trading volumes should accelerate price discovery, further supporting a shorter seasoning period. Note that the seasoning period for companies outside of the Top 40 remains at three months.
Several indexes have changed not just Nasdaq, but it’s one more people have heard about.
Edit: Ops SPY didn’t change their rules.
Short spacex is the only answer I've heard but I'm wise enough to know I don't have the mentality for derivatives.
This largely being my gripe about the Trump accounts in that you're allocating funds into them that can't be touched without penalties until like 50 years later. And for most people this probably isn't even a benefit because you can lifetime gift ~$15 million so like unless you're Bezos just invest the money yourself and gift your kid whatever large value item they wanted.
The biggest issues are the effort and tax implications of balancing the SpaceX short.
It was proven to be a good strategy on the SP500 [1, 2]
With 500 companies, it's work. But you can probably approximate it with a top 100.
[1] https://rodneywhitecenter.wharton.upenn.edu/wp-content/uploa...
[2] https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0015198X.2023.2...
"Time to drop the really big bomb: @realDonaldTrump is in the Epstein files. That is the real reason they have not been made public. Have a nice day, DJT!"
And to be clear, I’m not saying it’s a good thing. I just don’t think it matters so much.
Satellite launch business has $4.1 billion in revenue, but only growing 8% annually. Most of the revenue is from Starlink. It has $11.4 billion in revenue, with around 50% growth. Blue Origin will offer them competition soon.
X, formerly Twitter, has around $2B revenue, limited potential.
The massive 2030 projections ($474B total, $144B Starlink, $322B AI) are Goldman Sachs' IPO roadshow model. The projections are so aggressive they feel scammy.
SpaceX's 2025 revenue is $18.7 billion. A typical premium valuation for a top-tier tech company might be around 10x to 14x revenue, which would imply a strong IPO valuation of roughly $187 billion to $262 billion.
The reason for the outlandish valuation is because of naive retail investors who believe Elon Musk has never failed at anything.
Many people say you should stay invested in the SP500 anyway and I won't argue against that. But funds like VTV, DGRO, VIG, SCHD etc don't have the same level of exposure to tech, as well as international funds like VEA. Many 401ks allow you to invest in them through brokerage "link" options. Of course, do your research or talk to a pro before considering these.
VVIAX (Vanguard) or FLCOX (Fidelity)
to reduce your exposure to the highest of high-flying stocks.
Of course, many small company 401Ks limit your investment options to a small family of high expense ratio funds...
SpaceX is just another one on top of the pile, whenever it gets included.
Valuation multiples always mean revert on a long enough timeline... you can position for it today if you care to.
Of course Musk isn't doing it himself. He already bought Twitter so he could control what is said about him. And, as the wealthiest man in the world, he'd be stupid if he hasn't hired tens of thousands of people to monitor posts about him or his concerns and to downvote them (or whatever he wants). The cost to him for doing that would be similar to us spending ten cents.
