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0 pointspetilon3d ago0 comments

SpaceX is being valued as an AI company and yet they don't have a frontier AI model. Goldman Sachs is predicting 100x growth in 4 years for xAI, but it is a failed company with no frontier model. Top employees have left, and the company is renting out datacenter capacity.

Satellite launch business has $4.1 billion in revenue, but only growing 8% annually. Most of the revenue is from Starlink. It has $11.4 billion in revenue, with around 50% growth. Blue Origin will offer them competition soon.

X, formerly Twitter, has around $2B revenue, limited potential.

The massive 2030 projections ($474B total, $144B Starlink, $322B AI) are Goldman Sachs' IPO roadshow model. The projections are so aggressive they feel scammy.

SpaceX's 2025 revenue is $18.7 billion. A typical premium valuation for a top-tier tech company might be around 10x to 14x revenue, which would imply a strong IPO valuation of roughly $187 billion to $262 billion.

The reason for the outlandish valuation is because of naive retail investors who believe Elon Musk has never failed at anything.

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burnerRhodov32d ago· 2 in thread

2025 revenue, $18.7B. 2026 revenue is going to be ~$60B+ with the neocloud deals. Profit margins are going to be around 60%. 300% growth in a year and improving profit margins from a negative number to a $40B in profit in one year is... wild.

Plus, terafab and merging with Tesla is a pretty big forward looking narrative.

Arbing tokens instead of selling them to the consumer turned out the be the better business model. Turns out you don't need to have a frontier model and is actually the worse business model and letting everyone else burn the energy to compete.

petilonOP2d ago

Neocloud is a low margin business. SpaceX has no advantage over competitors such as Oracle, Microsoft, AWS and others. Renting out hardware purchased from Nvidia will give them 15% profit margin. Terafab does not have any advantage over TSMC. TSMC has massive economy of scale and mature supply chain.

In short, there is nothing to explain the massive overpricing of SpaceX stock, it will come down to earth at some point. Don't be left holding the bag at that point.

burnerRhodov31d ago

$2.5B a month for a $12B (collosus 1) buildout is very high margin? Electricity is about 15% of opex... Microsoft and Amazon are able to strong arm Open AI and Anthropic into giving up huge chunks of equity for their neoclouds, and have also made hundreds of $B's once they IPO? Coreweave is projecting $30B in CapEx to fulfill $99B in annual rev.

Where are you getting the 15% margin from? Can you provide any sources where thats the case? Because all the neo clouds are making insane amounts of money from what i can see.

Also, Terrafab is not about margin but access. TSMC is perpetually booked out for 2-3 years in advance.

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