Pensions fund a significant part of PE and they do so because they need around a 7% return in order to look solvent. If they do not have the higher PE returns, they basically go out if cash in 10 years and everyone would scream bloody murder. But with the higher returns from PE they have 40-50 year runways and people can pretend everything is fine.
So PE firms exist to extract value from basically all high quality goods and services to show a high ROI to prop up pensions. They extract wealth by buying up companies and gutting the “extra” things in them - for luxury goods, it’s quality, customer service and warranties (like my venta humidifier or reformation dresses), for services it’s stripping the underlying excess risk management and quality control. One can argue that PEs make the business more efficient but in my opinion they just turn worker or consumer related benefits into profits (stakeholder and business benefits). It’s a transfer of value from worker and consumer to business and asset holders at a massive scale.
But sadly it’s not some evil dudes at the top doing this transfer, the market force behind it is because we promised old people way too aggressive paychecks when they retired. Pensions need to invest massive amounts of money into higher rates of return and PEs just happened to be the medium that is the most successful. Sure the people running the PE firm extract a ton of value drying up all luxury quality and robust services from the daily lives of working families, but their take home is a tiny fraction of the wealth they extract (but yes they take home a massive amount of wealth for an individual). Instead the wealth extracted shows up on a 1400$/m for some old person probably living in a retirement home somewhere.
So if you wanna fix or ban PE, solve pensions.
We solved pensions. People have defined-contribution plans now. I would expect insurance float to dwarf pensions as a source of PE funding.
The real reason PE exists is because it charges high fees. The financial industry does not make products to serve customer needs, though by happy accident that sometimes happens. It makes products to charge fees. Index funds removed a big chunk of the fees that active mutual funds used to charge, so financiers went looking for a replacement.
Even if you snapped your fingers and all remaining pensions (and insurance float?) disappeared, PE is aggressively going after individual retirement accounts, now. Most insidiously, trying to work their way into the "target date" funds that are the defaults for most plans. So "solving pensions" will not make PE go away.
Like millions upon millions?
They need to be paid out somehow.
I've seen PE make businesses more efficient by reviewing all contracts and dropping or renegotiating ones that no longer align. Closing product lines that aren't profitable. But that is year 1-2. By year 3 they start the squeeze, layoffs, asset selloffs (stripping), and lowering quality, raising prices. That is where the real teeth of wolf are shown.
Currently in PE hell myself. Company I work for was bought out few years ago when the owner cashed out. Right out of the gate it was a numbers go up game. New sales person was hired and their first order of business was - drum roll please - triple prices! Customers balked. Some walked. In addition, some employee benefits evaporated, vacation time cut drastically, shitty health insurance switch, employee perks like the monthly pizza Fridays were canned as if ~$500/mo in pizza was going to bankrupt the company. Meanwhile, employee morale is at an all time low and quality has faded.
Perhaps there is good PE out there. Somewhere. All I see are vampires.
In principle, I don't think there's anything wrong with this. All investment expects a ROI over some time horizon. Public companies do the same thing. Anyone who founds a start-up is doing it too. The only real distinguishing feature of PE is how successful they have become at aggressively optimising for market value.
The issue is that the sale value at the end of the cycle can be massively influenced by cynical financial engineering. This seems to me to be more of an issue with how every institutional investor apparently now prices companies purely on reductive metrics like EBITDA x the industry standard multiple.
The cause of the rot is widespread over-confidence in dumb financialization models shaping the system.
(Or, since it's HN: if your machine learning model is training well, but misaligned with real life: do you blame AdamW?)
To play devil's advocate:
Doesn't this also open the market to new entrants?
e.g. young person looking to start a HVAC company in the old days couldn't compete with the established firm that already had contracts and the local market wasn't big enough for two players.
If the established firm gets bought by PE and driven into the ground, wouldn't the newer more nimble firm now have a better competitive market position?
Or maybe by then nobody trusts the name of the original company and it's just useless
Does it begin with A and end with X? ;0)
Effectively it’s burning all of the trust built up with consumers as firewood by tricking them into buying mediocre products at high prices.
People have to eat. They need water. They need a roof over their head. Nobody has to buy out all the veterinarians in an area at rates they can't say no to, have them sign non-competes and them jack up all the prices by 300% because, hey, you now own all of them. Nobody has to buy up all the trailer parks, which are normally peopple's last stop before being homeless, and then jack up the ground rent because, hey, where else are they going to go? Nobody has to buy up utilities, spend big on capex because legally you can pass on that charge and effectively double people's electricity bills.
Hannah Arendt coined the term "banality of evil" [1] decades ago and, in all honesty, I think it applies to the predatory nature of PE. It also goes for working for Palantir and a bunch of other companies. "I need to pay my student loans", "I'm just doing data science", "I'm just writing AI software that identifies when somebody is home" and on it goes.
PE serves no useful function in society. It's pure rent-seeking and incredibly predatory in many cases. ~15 years ago, there was a story about Goldman Sachs invented a derivative on the price of wheat and then essentially conspired to jack up the price of wheat [2]. This wasn't just manipulating a ticker on a Bloomberg terminal. It had real-world consequences. People starved and died because of this decision.
Yet I'm sure there were people who argued "I'm just doing legally allowed financial engineering here".
[1]: https://aeon.co/ideas/what-did-hannah-arendt-really-mean-by-...
[2]: https://theecologist.org/2011/sep/13/how-goldman-sachs-start...
The irony goes way deeper than that.
A large part of PE clients are university endowment funds.
Harvard for instance has close to $60B in its endowment fund, 40% of which is invested in PE. At this point, Harvard is more an investment fund, with a university as side business.
But… if you were to say hey we need to pay our old people and we desperately need some way we can deploy massive amounts of money at higher rates of return, people will say… hmm well it’s broken but the alternative is worse so we’ll ignore it.
But now imagine you have a way to deploy large amounts of money and get large returns off that money. Every large amount of money (endowments basically) will jump on it because why not? That’s literally an endowment dream scenario.
So pension funds are the moral reason these other huge chunks of money to get large returns. PE firms have become a streamlined business model because they continue to improve what they are good at doing, and it’s insane that we haven’t passed laws against it yet. Except of course we can’t mess with it because it touches government workers.
So yeah even if we wanted to policy it out of our society it’s practically impossible from a social point of view.
Do you have any evidence for this claim?
> Pensions fund a significant part of PE and they do so because they need around a 7% return in order to look solvent.
Again, please provide some sources for this claim. The S&P 500 index has returned about 15% on average over the past 10 years, and historically returned about 10% on average. [1]
> So if you wanna fix or ban PE, solve pensions.
This is a misinterpretation at best. Pensions do not make operational decisions at PE - PE management does.
This statement mistakes a funding source for the whole business model, which is problematic. Pensions supply capital, but PE’s behavior is from the general PE model: buy companies, use leverage, extract fees, seek exit in 5 to 10 years, and earn management fees plus carried interest. That structure exists whether the capital comes from pensions, sovereign wealth funds, insurers, endowments, family offices, or wealthy individuals. Public pensions are one major funding source, not the whole machine.
This statement also implies that PE is mainly a pension-funding response, which would be a falsehood. PE did not buy nursing homes or hospitals or vet clinics or prison telecoms or ambulance companies or dental chains or infrastructure-like services merely because pensions put in capital.
Lots of things are profitable but immoral. People will do crazy immoral and illegal stuff for money, but we outlaw and slander the more abusive stuff, like monopolies and such.
If it wasn't pensions that were funding PE, I'm sure PEs would get a lot more criticism and would not be allowed to do what they do.
No but there would be a lot less PE dry powder available. To the parent's point - there is currently a trillion dollars in dry powder that is allocated to acquiring businesses. If that trillion dollars drys up then less businesses get acquired - it's that simple.
Pensions fund PE because PE can do a short term cooking of the books in order to smooth out the growth curve. So the return is usually positive each year, not raising problems.
Also what does significant mean? Pensions are the main mechanism non-wealthy people are investing in PE. Being that millions are involved, you would expect pensions would have a sizable portion of the market, but family offices and high net worth offices dominate. If it offers above average returns, why would they not invest? PE is like every other asset class other than housing, the top 1% own a large chunk, the top 20% own the majority, and the bottom 50% own very little. Decisions are not driven by sone fireman, they are driven by the wealthy like everything else. And the origin and continuation of pushing for retirement to come from capital investment comes from the wealthy as well.
Its been awhile since I worked there, but CalPERS and CalSTRS were the two biggest LPs Blackstone had while I was there.
Isn’t this just what happens when you have an inverted pyramid (older population is larger than the younger population)?
> One can argue that PEs make the business more efficient
I’ve never seen it (I agree with you). To improve something they’d have to understand the business and do a bunch of work. Mostly they show up at quarterly meetings and want spreadsheets that measure some number that will go up (regardless if that number means anything).
> if you wanna fix or ban PE, solve pensions
How does one solve pensions?
I was thinking that Covid and widespread antivaxxer mentality would have.
But no. This will be the latest ladder-pull by the boomers and silents to extract the last bit of wealth from all the younger generations. And this will impoverish gen-x and all younger generations even more so than we already are.
When you turn 65/70/whatever, your pension/IRA/401(k) isn't paid out as a monthly cheque, but instead as a lifetime lease to an apartment in a retirement complex with subsidized services, and a relatively tiny cash stipend.
The quality of life remains comparable, except we've removed the ceremony of passing most of the money through the hands of the pensioners on the way to landlords, medical providers, etc. But because the goods and services can be preplanned and bulk-contracted and managed long-term, the operation can get get more value out of $1000 than an individual buyer would get out of $1400. This reduces the pressure for high returns.
This also eliminates the risk of outliving your money. With a prepaid obligation to be fed/sheltered/taken care of, the risk is transferred back to the pension scheme, or society as a whole through a state-insurance-backstop fund, which is probably better resourced and capable of swallowing the risk than your typical individual 85-year-old in failing health.
I’m sort of kidding about the PE here us particular. But institutions that aren’t run by people who personally care about services tend to be really bad at maintaining things like food quality or ventilation or furniture or any of the hard-to-measure attributes that make for a nice housing situation.
And like FIRE devotees, maybe they should model a lower withdrawal rate.
If a company being purchased by PE meant that they lost the vast majority of their customers as soon as contractually possible, then the possible value extracted by PE would drop off a cliff.
This isn't necessarily the fault of the customers - we're all dealing with a lot of information to process.
And, up until recently, it was reasonable to attach reputation to brand instead of to owners.
And I think that's a lot of what PE exploits - the gap between people's belief about a brand's reliability/reputation, and the fact that the actual reliability has been a function of who the actual owners of the company are for many years - but people are still attached to the old mental model.
(there may also be some value for PE to extract from assets aside from customer relationships and the higher-order "brand value", but I suspect that that's secondary - if I'm wrong please correct me)
Well, yes, that's how any retirement (or any social benefit, really) system works: people who actually do work support the people who don't. Those latter include children, the elderly, pop-stars, politicians, etc. So unless you make people work until the day they die (which is possible, and have been done in the past, mind you — it just severely decreases the average life expectancy), we're going to transfer some of the created wealth to the elderly. The exact form of how this transfer is performed is a fascinating topic for discussion (make their direct descendants care for them! make a state-, or charity-funded fund to feed them hot soup once a day! make them save up for retirement themselves! lots of options, really) but it will still happen one way or another. After all, some people simply do have lots of money (and keep getting more) with doing no labour; some of them are retirees.
https://www.psprs.com/uploads/sites/1/AIC_PublicPensionRepor...
Some interesting details:
- "Nearly 50 percent of the private equity investment dollars that make their way into American businesses come from public pension funds", which substantiates OP's thesis.
- "U.S. public pension funds invest 9% of their portfolios in private equity, on a dollar-weighted basis." 46% is in public equity, so obviously the lion's share is in still in public markets.
1. If you assume that P.E is uncorrelated/has a low correlation to the stock market (subject of many years of diatribes), then you decrease volatility of your portfolio by adding it.
2. Because a pension fund has a lot of years until they need start to paying out, then it is natural for it to attempt to harvest the illiquidity risk premium.
3. The (edit: removed extra words) "high required rate of return problem" is really a defined benefit problem. A DC plan can (and probably should) just be in mostly straight indices unless it's so big it can negotiate a good fee with asset managers for other classes.
Answering the implied statement - pensions invest in PE only to the tune of about 14%. [1]
The pension people aren't being scored on doing well for their clients. They're scored on money. They don't care.
Ain't no different than some jerk in an insurance/regulator office cooking up a rule about PPE based on first order assessment of a bunch of crappy data. The guy who gets mashed by a forklift he couldn't hear coming doesn't hurt their KPIs. He didn't suffer occupation related hearing loss. MissionAccomplished(TM)
Pretty much every industry that deals at the statistical level whether it's PE making investments or something else runs in this manner.
It's just a ploy for the wealthy to extract even more wealth from the rest of us, while stripping the country for parts and dooming the actual economy for years to come.
On the subject, if you have 50 minutes to waste: https://youtu.be/tyNFosOFUDM?is=hwDH5tFCAYc7soHG
You seem to be quite confused about pensions, not only "old people" have pensions. Actually the vast majority of contributions to pensions funds come from people who aren't old at all and are actively employed.
> If they do not have the higher PE returns, they basically go out if cash in 10 years and everyone would scream bloody murder.
Where would they "scream"? On the internet? And who'd hear them? The answer is nobody in any PE cares about anyone screaming.
PE's operations have nothing to do with screaming old people, that viewpoint simply avoids the real issues and replaces them with red herring age baiting.
This is exactly how pensions work: newer members to the defined benefits plan pay for older members. This isn't surprising.
> Where would they "scream"? On the internet? And who'd hear them? The answer is nobody in any PE cares about anyone screaming.
At the ballot box. There is a reason that public pensions are exempt from the PBGC reserve ratio requirements. People with pensions aggressively vote their interest.
I really appreciate this perspective as It helps fill in gaps in my mental model of where our economy has gone wrong the last 50 years. Unrelated but - I've read an interesting paper on how allowing private banks to create money has led to the infinite profit growth goose chase...
I live in a working-class southside neighborhood. The people who are complaining about property taxes for SFUs in the city are people in neighborhoods with skyrocketing home values.
Those people stand to receive a massive windfall when they sell. And while it may be annoying for them if they find themselves having to sell when they didn't want to, the they're vastly better off than all then renters in that neighborhood who got priced out much faster with no windfall.
So what's your alternative proposal for people in retirement?
PE is a bogeyman, emblematic of a problem but not the problem per se. The problem is leverage. Critical services should have a borrowing limit and prohibitions on any pay-outs to owners while any leverage is in place.
Kicking out private equity and replacing them with family offices doesn’t solve anything; removing the debt does.
[0]: https://fixedincome.fidelity.com/ftgw/fi/FIYieldTable?popupM...
They moved around the year 2000 to accounts that don't have the AT LEAST clause, and they earn what they earn, but due to the backlog of people still retiring that were grandfathered in, its wrecking our state.
My city has a huge budget deficit, but 24% of its total payroll budget goes to the public retirement system to 'catch up' from years when it did not make 8%. Next year or two, that is supposed to jump to 28% of payroll.
Problem won't start getting better until something like 2034 when the boomers start 'leaving the retirement system'
(it's a blog summary of a much longer, and rather esoteric, academic article)
Who do you think is buying .. everything? They're holding substantial fractions of both the whole stockmarket and national debt.
It's the corporate businesses that have gotten rid of pensions in favor of 401k plans.
There are also many benefits you don’t notice because they don’t bother you
Mass index fund investment is basically socialism but stupid. My retirement money is going to get invested in the SpaceX IPO against my will. The market is not efficiently allocating capital, it's structured to allow elites to skim off the top while forcing middle class people to subsidize them.
In my area PE is gobbling up mom-and-pop apartment complexes, plumbing companies, restaurants, and generally making customers and employees alike pretty miserable.
Hard-working founders should be able to cash out, but there has to be a better system than this one. Succession, maybe. Not that we should push an unmysterious destiny on our children, but maybe more ought to consider pulling one?
The large PE buyouts that came from the ridiculous ZIRP period could deliver better financial stability than handing the business down.
I know two families with businesses that attracted huge PE offers in the past few years. One of them took the buyout and the family members slowly left their jobs at the company because they effectively been early retired by their buyout.
Now the kids are looking at new businesses to buy and start for themselves with this new financial freedom that has come to the family. One of their considerations is starting another business in or around their old line of work that was sold off. They have to wait until the contractual non-compete expires, but if the PE owners are really making both the employees and customers miserable then it becomes a golden opportunity for experienced operators to come in and run a good business in the vacuum. Even many of the old employees have expressed a desire to join.
The bad PE phenomenon buyout is annoying, but businesses that become miserable for the customers and employees are not stable long-term businesses. When they decline because competitors show up to do a better job and retain better talent, it becomes a transfer of money from the lenders to the old owners and an annoying churn in the local business scene. As we see more of these failures, the willingness of banks to lend for these buyouts will go down.
What happens when those businesses are hospitals, for example? I've read too many stories of hospitals getting bought by PE and either shutting down or staying (while offering increasingly poor service). In one outcome, it reduces the accessibility to healthcare. In the other, it forces those most unable to choose to stay with subpar care. In both cases, it's not like other health systems are rushing in to replace what has been lost. We just end up with fewer and shittier hospitals.
Instead of succession, I wonder if there is a way to make it easier for these people to sell their company when its time to retire to someone who is looking to start the next step of their career. A lot of software engineers joke about becoming farmers, but if they could instead make an easy transition into a small business by buying a small business, we could prevent PE from raiding things.
And that’s before you even make it to the question of “can the person that manages to buy it actually live off of it as a lifestyle business?”
This leads to them pushing their kids to be employees even though that's...really contradictory to their actual lived experience.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Employee_stock_purchase_plan
Family businesses have traditionally gotten around this by having their children involved for 10+ years prior to taking over. That way, you slowly transfer your "social capital" to the new owner (in this case your kid). This is understandably harder to manage with a stranger, because you can't transfer the value before they buy it, but they won't buy it if they can't guarantee you'll help them transfer the value.
The entire SBA loan program exists to solve this.
The door refused to open. It said, “Five cents, please.”
He searched his pockets. No more coins; nothing. “I’ll pay you tomorrow,” he told the door. Again he tried the knob. Again it remained locked tight. “What I pay you,” he informed it, “is in the nature of a gratuity; I don’t have to pay you.”
“I think otherwise,” the door said. “Look in the purchase contract you signed when you bought this conapt.”
In his desk drawer he found the contract; since signing it he had found it necessary to refer to the document many times. Sure enough; payment to his door for opening and shutting constituted a mandatory fee. Not a tip.
“You discover I’m right,” the door said. It sounded smug.
From the drawer beside the sink Joe Chip got a stainless steel knife; with it he began systematically to unscrew the bolt assembly of his apt’s money-gulping door.
“I’ll sue you,” the door said as the first screw fell out.
Joe Chip said, “I’ve never been sued by a door. But I guess I can live through it.
- Philip K. Dick, Ubik
"In developing countries, everything is possible and nothing works. In developed countries, everything works and nothing is possible."
Why? Operating a successful business should be remunerative on its own, or else it's not successful. Owners who don't want to do it anymore can let it become worker owned. If they don't want it, it can dissolve. What else do you need? The very concept that the end of a successful business is a big payday for its creator is itself the poison here. There is no end just another workday, success is ongoing not final. This is natural and correct.
When they retired they didn't have any money in the bank besides the proceeds from their final harvest, but all their loans were paid off. That's where the profits went -- paying off the loans.
The farm was their retirement savings. They sold it off for high six figures, and that's what funded their frugal but comfortable retirement.
The neighbor's son bought the farm; I hope he's pretty much paid off the loan he took out to buy it.
It's the same with gentrified zones: yes there are some dark patterns going on as well, but mainly is previous, smaller owners that want to make big bucks by selling to someone with money from outside rather than someone local like themselves for less money.
My guess is owner-operator selflessness is a key ingredient in a lot of beloved small businesses. I don't know for certain that the winning personality for getting a business off the ground on all the bad days is the same one that raises rates proportionally with their success.
So it becomes all-or-nothing. It's my friends and neighbors when I'm working, when I sell-out it's purely business. No in-between.
As a business owner, if you want cash today because you are done with a business. You could go to a bank and get a loan to pay dividends. This is a bad deal for the bank as you have no incentive to operate the business after you cash out the loan. A private equity firm comes in and operates the business on the model that they still keep some of the profits after the loan value.
The crappy side comes in as a customer, the PE firm can do this to an arbitrary number of firms in the area and raise prices on each/cut services. PE firms can trivially build out monopolies. Many of these monopolies will be invisible as they leave the existing branding etc. in place.
> As a business owner, if you want cash today because you are done with a business. You could go to a bank and get a loan to pay dividends.
If you are a business owner you could borrow yourself using the business as security.
One correction is that it’s not like paying for the company with money from the company you’re buying, because that obviously wouldn’t benefit the sellers. The money comes from a lender and they get terms to take the business if the loan terms aren’t meant. The lenders are the effective new largest owners of the company with the PE firm being a smaller owner but the expected primary operator.
In an analysis of "European companies around their buyout event in the period 2000 - 2008," private equity was found to "select companies which are less financially distressed than comparable companies prior to the transaction and that the distress risks increase after the buyout" [1]. Critically, however, "the distress risk in private equity-backed companies does not exceed the distress risk in comparable companies three years after the buyout," and, "despite this risk increase, private equity-backed companies do not suffer from higher bankruptcy rates than the control group."
More broadly, an analysis of "17,171 worldwide leveraged buyout transactions that include every transaction with a financial sponsor in the CapitalIQ database announced between 1/1/1970 and 6/30/2007" found bankruptcy rates around 6% [2]. This isn't exceptionally high.
[1] https://madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/31366/1/dp11076.pdf
[2] https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.23.1.121 Table 2
Even 3% or 0% down mortgages?
That's why the parent is saying "It is like paying for the company with the money from the company you are buying.".
It’s possible to “understand” mortgages by understanding that conditions for stable home markets don’t arise by themselves—we collectively make them possible because the outcome is desired—then wonder WTF because what social function is creating conditions for private equity getting us.
The "consumer harm" standard is idiotic.
Most of the R&D that laid the future of the world happened during that period. The middle class grew to its largest portion during that period.
I don’t think the economy was hamstrung in the least
The US economy generally did very well with those standards, maybe the best it ever did, especially considering distribution of benefits.
For the record: national economic policy shouldn't revolve around Y Combinator classes and similar startups.
I'm totally fine if it turns out a sensible antitrust policy completely destroys the acquisition exit pathway for tech startups. I'm not saying one will, but I'm saying that's a cost I'm willing to pay.
https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...
A company doesn’t have to make billions per quarter to be solvent, it only needs to beat inflation. Beyond that, the people running the company should have some basic human decency. If they don’t, we as consumers, employees, founders, whatever can and should cease doing business with them.
I'm spitballing here, but what if we created a browser extension that gives users the option to block various monopolistic/oligarchic tech platforms. If the browser navigates to a blocked platform, we show a "consider these alternatives" page instead. Competitors to the monopolies could offer incentives (raffles, discounts, etc) in exchange for promotion on the recommended alternatives list, creating an incentive to participate in a boycott.
Example: a user opts into an Amazon boycott, but later clicks an affiliate link that leads them to a book listing on amazon.com. The browser extension intercepts this and displays a list of other places to shop for that book. Barnes and Noble offers a 10% discount for people who boycott Amazon, so they're the top recommended alternative, and the user gets the book for a discount.
It was a Chrome extension which allowed a user to upload a list (pluggable community-maintained lists, akin to ublock). It would light up when a user was on a site in the list with details about the site, the ownership/board, recent news, etc.
It also had a space for recommended alternatives. I built it because I was tired of giving money to companies who used the profits to make society worse.
I’d be down to pick up work on it again and get development going in the open or shift to work on the more commercial oriented design you describe. Lmk a good way to reach you if you’re open to it.
If you’d rather I can set up an email for this alias I just don’t have one handy to post publicly at the time of writing.
It's basically impossible to boycott amazon completely because of AWS which powers everything.
The hard thing needed is better politicians. And to get better politicians we need a better and more politically literate voting public. To get that, we need better journalism.
It's a real hard battle to win especially since a huge portion of the electorate will vote for the incumbent and the incumbents will deploy every dirty trick in the book to stay in power. Including getting people to run to split tickets.
But that's ultimately what must happen. The thing Amazon or Walmart actually fear is a government willing to regulate them or their employees unionizing. And the only way to get regulations is voting for politicians that do that and voting out politicians unwilling to do that. For unions, you have to convince people that even though it may cost them their jobs, it's worth it to drive the likes of Walmart out of town to support more local businesses. It helps to get union friendly politicians into office.
(Un)fortunately, there's a pretty big generational divide. As boomers expire, I have hope that Gen X and Millennials will make things better. The question is how bad things will get before that happens.
Most of the Trump supporters most everyone here knows are also the oldest folks they know. Funny that.
Intergenerational war is stupid. Why be angry because someone lived in a time they gave them a benefit? In the case of the boomers, they were also the generation beaten by cops, water cannoned, and shot for being antiwar and pro civil rights. While many boomers are crappy, they’re are also every bit as diverse as any other group.
Finally, the old folks I was thinking of were born in the 20s and 30s, not the 50s.
> The first ever Roman fire brigade was created by Crassus. Fires were almost a daily occurrence in Rome, and Crassus took advantage of the fact that Rome had no fire department, by creating his own brigade—500 men strong—which rushed to burning buildings at the first cry of alarm. Upon arriving at the scene, however, the firefighters did nothing while Crassus offered to buy the burning building from the distressed property owner, at a miserable price. If the owner agreed to sell the property, his men would put out the fire; if the owner refused, then they would simply let the structure burn to the ground. After buying many properties this way, he rebuilt them, and often leased the properties to their original owners or new tenants.
I wonder if the incidence of fires increased during this time.
For the curious, above is how Crassus died.
TLDR: Got over his skis and mad with power and money. Decides to invade Parthia. Gets wrecked by horse archers. That ends up being typical for Romans, but this was the first-ish time that happened. Some of those captured legionaries may have ended up in China, though it is unlikely.
I don't think the Western Romans ever really learned from it did they? The Huns ended up wreaking them pretty hard.
I know the Eastern Romans did learn at some point out of necessity by creating their own professional units and hiring mercs.
in some sense I even respect that decision
sigma
What keeps a newly graduated Veterinarian from opening her own clinic and undercutting the PE competition? With no massive loans on her books, she can profitably offer lower prices than PE can. She may even drive the local PE clinic out of business.
Except every newly-graduated veterinarian does have a massive loan on their books, in the form of student loans. And even if she didn't, where does the startup capital for her clinic come from? Whether in human or animal medicine, starting your own practice--especially as a new grad--is usually the course of action with the highest-risk-to-lowest-pay ratio.
Depends entirely on fixed vs variable costs. Rollups (which are very common now) work mainly because most "mom and pop" businesses can easily be "unlocked" by pooling the treasury, HR, accounting, commercial banking, supplier negotiations etc.
Why would the retiring dentist selling their practice be a trust or collusion problem?
How would you know this attention is getting paid or not unless you are consuming local news from the places this is happening?
1.Shareholder primacy. Under Delaware corporate law (which governs most large U.S. public companies), once a board decides to sell, directors have a fiduciary duty to maximize the price shareholders receive. A premium cash offer from a PE firm is hard to refuse without legal exposure.
2.Interest deductibility. The tax code lets companies deduct interest payments but not dividends, which makes debt-heavy capital structures more tax-efficient. LBOs exploit a feature of tax law that exists for many reasons unrelated to private equity.
3.Freedom of contract and limited liability. Sponsors can put a thin equity check into a holding company, have that company borrow on the target's assets, and walk away if it fails, because limited liability is the foundation of corporate law generally.
The UK high street has been a notable victim. Gradually, over the past couple of decades, company after company has been snapped up by PE. Not just shops, but restaurants too. Suddenly you realise that the 5 or 6 high street chains that were competing are now owned by the same fund. Quality collapses, prices rise, not just at one chain but everywhere. People stop going, the chain collapses, another empty unit, the fund moves on. It's easy to point at Amazon and internet shopping as having degraded the British high street, but there are several other factors, and PE is a big one.
PE is often just legalised larceny.
Same for Amazon vs going direct to the manufacturers, which is more often than not, China.
1. No one forced these people to sell. Is the idea that you can’t sell to an entity with more money? If you block that good luck with the world economy.
2. If above is ok is the idea that the new owner is inherently worse because they have more money, whereas as the smaller would be OK then where are the new entrants?
3. Going to the article it is clear enough. These industries just are not lucrative to begin with. PE buys them and raises prices, but this only works because people complain instead of starting rival business.
4. Somehow leaving money on the table in the form of a backlog is bad? Why don’t others start a business and take those orders? Why don't they? Not profitable or worth the hassle.
Well there you go.
Separately, American manufacturing just seems very uncompetitive.
This reads like fiction. When they corner the market it's of course trivial to just jump in and take that share. No way they will try to be disruptive to you or sue you to hell and back and of course the bank will loan you the pile of money to start a new company since there is no giant corporation to compete with who can squeeze you out in an instance.
My family doctor underwent that along with several of her local peers and got out from under it and started her own practice. I'm obviously not her only patient, so yes, heightening stress on caregivers by demanding more work to drive profits higher is justifiable of a bad reputation.
Leaving things like medical care, food, water, shelter at the mercy of for-profit dynamics leaves the possibility open that those services stop being provided because it is unprofitable at the expense of the population.
America is deciding it likes profit over its population.
Ultimately the influence of rent seekers has grown and the category of people who can take risks by starting a business was the first to collapse, leaving only the wealthy who don't care and the people who can't risk their own survival.
Why do we need antitrust laws? Why do mergers need government approval? Or are you a libertarian who believes in unfettered capitalism?
Where does it end? What if I threatened you with violence to sell your business? Is that OK? You might correctly say "that's illegal". If so, does that stipulate we do need laws? How far can coercion go while still being legal? What if I also own your key suppliers? What if you run a veterinarian practice and I jack up the price of all your meds, radiological film, etc if you don't sell? What if I own the major pet insurance providers and decide that your practice, if you don't sell, is no longer covered by my insurance?
> 2. If above is ok
It's not.
> 3. Going to the article it is clear enough. These industries just are not lucrative to begin with
They're engaged in anticompetitive behavior but on a local level so it tends to escape scrutiny. Unfortunately, if you dog is sick and you like in Cincinatti, you don't really have the option to go Reno where there's (for now at least) a cheaper option.
This is all just rent-seeking behavior. Nothing about this is productive. The people who engage in this should be treated the same way profitters are in wars and natural disasters, which historically hasn't been a fine or legal sanctions. I'll put it that way.
> 4. Somehow leaving money on the table in the form of a backlog is bad?
That's what rent-seeking is. It's unproductive extraction of wealth by removing all other options.
Wait until PE comes for your ISP and suddenly a 1gig fiber connection is $300/month. What are you going to do then? Start your own ISP? Good luck with that.
> The result is a backlog that reads like a financial opportunity in earnings calls and a crisis in every fire station in the country. As of 2025, REV Group’s backlog stands at $4.5 billion. Wait times for a custom fire truck run to four years. Prices have doubled in a decade: a pumper truck now costs around $1 million; a ladder truck runs over $2 million. Profit margins in the industry have tripled — from the historic 4-to-5 percent range to over 13 percent.
The article goes on to talk about how a backlog is actually genius. Here's a quote from a senator:
> “This didn’t just happen to you accidentally. This is a business decision, isn’t it? You keep these backlogs like this. […] Another word for this would be a heist. This sounds to me like private equity came in; bought up all of these small companies; combined them; shut down their production; rolled up a huge backlog; massive profits; stiffed these guys; and now you’re making out like bandits.”
So you make money by ... not delivering? I'm missing something.
> The fire truck industry is the most publicly documented case, but the underlying playbook — acquire, consolidate, reduce supply, extract margin — appears across essential sectors with alarming consistency.
Sure, anyone can reduce supply and increase prices if they're a large enough supplier. But companies don't produce up to the point where marginal price is equal to marginal cost out of the goodness of their heart. It's the profit maximizing level. This is economics 101. The article doesn't even try to explain beyond hand waving. No one cares about profit margin, they care about maximizing profit, and you don't do that by creating backlogs. So something is off here and the author is either too incompetent to ask basic questions or just wants to write another PE bad article
The buyer (who PE sells to) is "thinking about" collecting on the backlog.
Obviously, the backlog is "fake".
EDIT: The backlog is fake or worthless in the sense, that dollars worth of reputation (a.k.a. Brand) were given away to get pennies worth of backlog. Customer satisfaction is real, even in a business valuation sense.
> So you make money by ... not delivering? I'm missing something.
Precisely. Let's review imperfect competition. Although it's you who so unpleasantly insists on framing the discussion in econ 101 terms, it's your comment that is sunk by a misunderstanding of elementary economics.
What you're missing is evidently the things one learns when they go past chapter 1 of an intro textbook!
> It's the profit maximizing level.
Not all markets match the assumptions of the simple "perfect competition" ideal you learn about first. The efficient equilibrium you describe requires an assumption that there are no barriers to entering the marketplace as a producer. An extreme example breaking this assumption is the "monopoly market", where there is only one seller of the good because barriers prevent other sellers from viably entering the marketplace. That's why the consolidation in OP is relevant to the discussion...
In the extreme case the market equilibrium is reached when a monopoly jacks up the price and produces less than it would in a competitive market. Deliberate scarcity! The (single) producer makes more money in this kind of market. The consumer is worse off. But the every extra dollar the monopolist makes in profits takes more than a dollar away from the consumers. Deviating from the perfectly competitive equilibrium results in a market inefficiency called "deadweight loss".
The article also nodded to the price-inelastic demand for the equipment enabling emergency services. Inelastic demand makes this phenomenon more extreme. It's pretty intuitive that fire departments' demand for firetrucks would be price-inelastic.
So anyway. Your comment implied that you don't want to be mad about the consolidation and price gouging for e.g. firetrucks if you're in the "woohoo go free markets" tribe. Couldn't be more wrong. You should be just as mad if you're in that tribe. The extraction of monopoly rents from emergency services is not just dangerous, and not just unfair, but also a textbook case of market inefficiency.
Some modern economists have suggested this should work theoretically if properly implemented. See Helmut Creutz, Das Geld-Syndrom (1993) and “The Natural Rate of Interest Is Zero” — Mathew Forstater & Warren Mosler.
LOL, read up on how baking and loans in Islamic countries work. Banks buy whatever you want and then sell it to you partially at a higher rate. The customer then pays a rent for the portion owned by the bank till the principle is paid off. No interest charged technically, but effectively they do pay; except it is now kosher/halal. We humans use language to work around every such restriction by debating on the literal meaning of any such religious restrction.
There's also a strong argument that charity transfers to the poor does far more harm than good. How do you price a field worth of wheat, a mill, or even a local grocery when an airdrop of processed flour and food rations can arrive at any moment with no warning? And how do you get the capital to start one of those when it's illegal to get a loan?
Of course there are solutions if you have enough tenacity, but the overall result is far fewer businesses started because the friction is just so much higher.
Hoarding of what?
Commodities? Should I be taxed for hoarding firewood before winter?
Money? Only poor people hoard money. The wealthy invest it.
I (and leaders at my PE-owned company) cannot say enough bad things about private equity. How anyone who managed to make money in their life decides PE is a good investment blows my mind.
We are now on our 5th PE firm in 10 years, and just completed a "PE lifecycle" of buy -> merge -> sell -> part out -> merge.
None of these PE firms bring anything to the table. Even the hundreds of billions AUM giants. They have zero interest in tangibly improving the company, and lots of interest in cheap window dressings meant to fool other PE firms. Not that they could do much else, because it's mostly business grads with minimal real world exposure, and hunger to be rich above all else.
The most critical thing to understand is that they pay themselves "advisory and oversight fees" for the incredibly difficult work of increasing sales targets 300%. These fees can eat 10% of our revenue, and is one click above theft. Trust me, they will lay-off 75% of the company before even considering cutting back their personal take. Never mind the fees they take from investors too. They bill both sides.
Also, if they kill some of the companies they acquire, it's the investors loss. It is not their loss. They still collect all their fees just the same.
There is a total misalignment between investors and PE firms, where PE firms just want to maximize their looting while investors think they are actually trying to improve the acquired companies. If the invesotrs do see gains, it's mostly because the firm successfully conned another firm into overpaying.
Run from investing in PE, run as fast as you can. Recently they changed the law to allow regular people to have PE in their retirement. They are running out of useful idiots, and want access to the general public. DO NOT FALL FOR IT
I make a good amount every time the company changes hands so I’m kind of complicit but I also try very hard to run each company the best it can be run from the perspective of all stakeholders. Sometimes they just live in la la land with their expectations. They put together an investment thesis prior to investing and cant wrap their heads around any deviations from some stupid excel model they built with 5-10 year financials all on rose colored assumptions. One business I was a part of had a new government regulation immediately erode 40% of their revenues and every month explaining it over and over why we were down to plan was ridiculous. Then the annual budget we told them would be a readjustment to reality. When we presented it they acted flabbergasted. This same thing went on over and over until I just got fed up telling them I didn’t care about their investment thesis and would only discuss reality and left the company purely because of the investors. Stuff like that is pretty common
So you're looking to attract investors with smaller margins on specialized $500k trucks that don't yet exist for a sector already monopolized by PE?
Nobody has that kinda cash lying around, banks can't justify such high liabilities, and VCs are not interested in "stable", businesses.
Does anyone know about the source?
https://rubbishtalk.com/media-kit/
Whoever put this together couldn't even be bothered to compete the template they were using.
Why would anybody expend time reading something that is probably full of hallucinations? And what's crazy is clearly only a few of us have enough experience with Instruct Mode LLMs to even spot it. The rest of these guys don't even know they're reading slop.
Quote (from article) “This didn’t just happen to you accidentally. This is a business decision, isn’t it? You keep these backlogs like this. […] Another word for this would be a heist. This sounds to me like private equity came in; bought up all of these small companies; combined them; shut down their production; rolled up a huge backlog; massive profits; stiffed these guys; and now you’re making out like bandits.”
https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/did-a-private-equity-fire...
The last part never made sense to be. Where do they find willing buyers for these debt laden, hollowed out husks?
This just seems wrong. The buyer takes out a loan, how does that become the responsibility of the company they purchased? I thought loans used to buy a business treated the business as collateral, like a home mortgage. What lender would participate in this? and why?
Because the company they purchased is now a part of them.
As for why a lender would agree to it, it's because these transactions are not as simplistic or universally disastrous as they are usually described. A lender will obviously only make that loan if it has a reasonable expectation of being paid back, and most of them are. They may get additional collateral like parent/affiliate guarantees and the loans will have covenants relating to financial performance etc.
If you just keep gutting companies with leveraged buyouts, you're not taking on any real risk.
If you're buying up firms that deliver "essential services", you're likely engaging a monopoly. Again, low risk, high reward. A direct violation of the rules of how investments should work. Regulate the monopoly and this goes away.
And that debt financing bears an interest proportional to the riskiness of the asset's cashflows.
There are lots to hate about LBOs but they aren't entirely devoid of value
Cost insensitive customers with bizarre business requirements, what could go wrong?
0. https://www.slashgear.com/1890538/why-american-fire-trucks-b...
1. https://www.pulsara.com/blog/why-does-911-send-a-fire-truck-...
2. https://sf-fire.org/our-organization/division-support-servic...
https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/did-a-private-equity-fire...
> When a fire truck fails to deploy in a burning building and four people die, the cause isn’t just mechanical failure. It’s a business model.
leaves
PE funds seem a bit like the latest manifestation of the 80s corporate raiders to me.
You can take the cash flow, take debt against the companies own cash flow to buy it, pay yourself back, consolidate, then raise the prices on a captive market.
2017 my city bought a Pierce ladder truck for $1.1M. The same-specced model that we ordered at the start of 2025 was $2M.
Our ambulance costs have gone from $250K to $250K. Engines from $400K to $800K.
And everything takes years - we're having to order multiple years ahead of time. Even a "simple" brush truck we waited for 30 months for delivery (and that's counting day 1 being "the day the Ford chassis was delivered to the factory for the brush truck build").
The new PE overlord will do things like send you a bill for inspection after you inquire about their pricing ("Well, our guy was in the area so he took a look!") while billing you for gas from their home location.
This is disgusting on so many levels—no competition here at all, just oppression by those with a lot of money.
Please edit out the AI-isms in your article. If you do, let me know and I’ll come back and read your thing.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
Another anecdote is private equity buying up psychologist firms providing therapy to people. The dude told me people walk in with their chat gipity transcripts. The goal of the PE firm was to buy out and make money and then somehow offer some software to give these people a "productive" chat gipity conversation
Just get the fuck out of here already? How many fingers up your own ass do you gotta have to keep up that kind of work?
If it sounds substantial, it’s because it’s paraphrasing actual reporting, or it’s hallucinating. I found one of article it’s plagiarizing [1]. Other “articles” on the same site link to the real sources that the AI is regurgitating.
The topic is interesting and discussion is thoughtful, but I’m saddened to see it under a fake article like this.
[1]: The intro is an AI rewording of this: https://www.atlantanewsfirst.com/2025/12/08/burnout-fire-tru...
It's a good thing that profit margins for manufacturing have increased, it's a bad that cities don't want to pay what a firetruck is worth in a post-industrial country.
Now they are buying fire stations, dentist offices, ski resorts, whatever the fuck they can think of and then raise the prices. Something needs to be done to stop this.
Other examples not mentioned: eggs, kids athletics, I’ve heard stories in fintech services as well
There are other greed-based systems which also eat themselves, but we live in the era of capitalism as the vehicle of self-destruction.
Many of us won’t be alive to see it, but it will result in the fall of the US. Maybe it will be 50 years from now, but I suspect sooner.
Once enough safeguards get systematically removed, the rate of growth of the beast becomes unstoppable.
Eventually the few who have not been crushed and who have the (illusion of) control will have to wall themselves off in heavily guarded compounds to prevent the masses of desperate poor from overrunning them. It will be like so many dystopian stories that have already been written.
I see no way to correct it now, at least not in the US. Moneyed interests clearly have control of the government. The few good civil servants and elected officials are increasingly under pressure to give up their principles and accept pay-to-play, lest they lose their jobs or what little power they had to do good.
This isn’t just a right wing problem (US right), because the same money flows to the left. At the end of the day, one side may indeed be more cruel, but they both support the same system.
