If this is the case then we better have full AI generated code within the next 10 years since those "juniors" will remain atrophied juniors forever and the old timers will be checking in with the big clock in the sky. IF we, as a field, believe that this can not possibly happen, then we are making a huge mistake leaning on a tool that requires "deep [orthogonal] experience" to operate properly.
As for whether it's a mistake, isn't that just the way of things these days? The current world is about extracting as much as you can while you're still here. Look around. Nobody is building for the future. There are a few niche groups that talk about it, but nobody is really doing it. It's just take, take, take.
This just seems more of the same, but we're speeding up. We started by extracting fossil fuels deposited over millions of years, then extracting resources and technology from civilisations deposited over millennia, then from the Victorians deposited only a century or two ago, and now it's software deposited over only mere decades. Someone is going to be left holding the bag, we just hope it's not us. Meanwhile most of the population aren't even thinking about it, and most of the fraction that do think are dreaming that technology is going to save us before it's payback time.
There are no shortcuts - you are not an accountant just because you have a calculator.
That's also the huge difference between AI and brains: AI does not work on the real world but on our communication (and even that is limited to text, missing all the nuance or face to face communication includes). The brain works based on sensor data from the real world. The communication method, language, is a very limited add-on on top of how the brain really works. We don't think in language, to do even some abstract language based thinking, e.g. when doing formal math, requires a lot of concentration and effort and still uses a lot of "under the hood" intuition.
That is why even with years of learning the same curriculum we still need to make a significant effort for every single concrete example to "get everyone on the same page", creating compatible internal models under the hood. Everybody's own internal model of even simple things are slightly different, depending on what brain they brought to learning and what exactly they learned, where even things like social classroom interactions went into how the connections were formed. Only based on a huge amount of effort can we then use language to communicate in the abstract, and even then, when we leave the central corridor of ideas people will start arguing forever about definitions. No matter how the written text is the same, the internal model is different for every person.
As someone who took neuroscience, I found this surprisingly well written:
"The brain doesn't like to abstract unless you make it"
http://howthebrainworks.science/how_the_brain_works_/the_bra...
> This resource, prepared by members of the University of London Centre for Educational Neuroscience (CEN), gives a brief overview of how the brain works for a general audience. It is based on the most recent research. It aims to give a gist of the brain’s principles of function, covering the brain’s evolutionary origin, how it develops, and how it copes in the modern world.
The best way to learn is to do things IRL that matter. School is a compromise and not really all that great. People motivated by actual need often can learn things that take years in school with middling results significantly faster and with better and deeper results.
Trade schools and certificate programs are designed to churn out people with journeyman-level skills in some field. They repeatedly drill you on the practical day-in-day-out requirements, tasks, troubleshooting tools and techniques, etc. that you need to walk up to a job site and be useful. The fields generally have a predictable enough set of technical problems to deal with that a deep theoretical exploration is unnecessary. This is just as true for electricians and auto mechanics as it is for people doing limited but logistically complex technical work, like orchestrating a big fleet of windows workstations with all the Microsoft enterprise tools.
In software development and lots of other fields that require grappling with complex theoretical stuff, you really need both the practical and the theoretical background to be productive. That would be a ridiculous undertaking for a school, and it’s why we have internships/externships/jr positions.
The combination of these tools letting the seniors in a department do all of the work so companies don’t have to invest in interns/juniors so there’s no reliable entry point into the field, and there being an even bigger disconnect between what schools offer and the skills they need to compete, the industry has some rough days ahead and a whole lot of people trying to get a foothold in the industry right now are screwed. I’m kind of surprised how little so many people in tech seem to care about the impending rough road for entry-level folks in the industry. I guess it’s a combination of how little most higher level developers have to interact with them, and the fact that everybody was tripping over themselves to hire developers when a lot of seniors joined the industry.
