2025 Daily Surface Air Temperature Looking Bad (opens in new tab)

(climatereanalyzer.org)

35 pointsbarrettondricka1y ago20 comments

20 comments

The last two years of climate data from sources all over the world has been completely out of distribution. Recently scientists have struggled to understand it because it's worse than the worst predicted trendlines in their models.

rUsHeYaFuBu1y ago

I'm far from an expert. However I wonder if this is partially tied to under estimates in methane leaks in natural gas delivery and CO2 connected to concrete construction

toomuchtodo1y ago

I believe it is positive feedback loop tipping points being reached (thawing permafrost, for example), which is accelerating change beyond was was previously modeled.

https://salatainstitute.harvard.edu/thawing-permafrost-what-...

https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...

1 more reply

emchammer1y ago

I am not an expert either. However I cannot imagine that those sources come close to the volume of methane leaked from clathrates.

Hammershaft's comment is disturbing to me, as that is how the lines in the graph appear to me as well.

1 more reply

trescenzi1y ago

There was also the thing about low sulfur shipping causing a spike in temps? No idea if that’s potentially related or not.

1 more reply

romaaeterna1y ago

Long term warming trend. We might get up to the previous peak at the beginning of the Late Pleistocene 125,000 years ago before it's all over.

defrost1y ago

Short term (within a century) warming trend directly caused by additional atmospheric insulation (CO2) added by human activity.

We've already reached and are now starting to exceed:

  The global average temperature during the Last Interglacial period, which peaked around 125,000 years ago, was about 0.5–1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels.

romaaeterna1y ago

The proxies we have for ancient periods don't allow us to state very much about what rates of warming looked like on a short-term scale. It's hard to rule out that it might not have been very much like today. And the CO2-driving argument is predicated on null-warming in the 1800s, which is hard to establish (actually counter-indicated).

1 more reply

_dark_matter_1y ago

Haven't you heard? The new president will fix this too! No more of these suspicious graphs!

In all seriousness, wish there was more happening to fix this.

nojvek1y ago

I feel really bad for kids. If every year the temperatures are breaking records, that's not a pretty world to live in.

jiggawatts1y ago

He's got a whole box of Sharpies.

defrost1y ago

and, by the Commutative Law of Relatives he's at least as much of a stable genius as his uncle who was a great professor for, I believe, 40 years at MIT.

jemmyw1y ago

It looks like the northern hemisphere is the outlier and southern, tropics, artic and antarctic are, well not cold (relatively), but not over the long term trend.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

20 comments

Hammershaft1y ago

rUsHeYaFuBu1y ago

I'm far from an expert. However I wonder if this is partially tied to under estimates in methane leaks in natural gas delivery and CO2 connected to concrete construction

toomuchtodo1y ago

I believe it is positive feedback loop tipping points being reached (thawing permafrost, for example), which is accelerating change beyond was was previously modeled.

https://salatainstitute.harvard.edu/thawing-permafrost-what-...

https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...

1 more reply

emchammer1y ago

I am not an expert either. However I cannot imagine that those sources come close to the volume of methane leaked from clathrates.

Hammershaft's comment is disturbing to me, as that is how the lines in the graph appear to me as well.

1 more reply

trescenzi1y ago

There was also the thing about low sulfur shipping causing a spike in temps? No idea if that’s potentially related or not.

1 more reply

romaaeterna1y ago

Long term warming trend. We might get up to the previous peak at the beginning of the Late Pleistocene 125,000 years ago before it's all over.

defrost1y ago

Short term (within a century) warming trend directly caused by additional atmospheric insulation (CO2) added by human activity.

We've already reached and are now starting to exceed:

  The global average temperature during the Last Interglacial period, which peaked around 125,000 years ago, was about 0.5–1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels.

romaaeterna1y ago

1 more reply

_dark_matter_1y ago

Haven't you heard? The new president will fix this too! No more of these suspicious graphs!

In all seriousness, wish there was more happening to fix this.

nojvek1y ago

I feel really bad for kids. If every year the temperatures are breaking records, that's not a pretty world to live in.

jiggawatts1y ago

He's got a whole box of Sharpies.

defrost1y ago

and, by the Commutative Law of Relatives he's at least as much of a stable genius as his uncle who was a great professor for, I believe, 40 years at MIT.

jemmyw1y ago

It looks like the northern hemisphere is the outlier and southern, tropics, artic and antarctic are, well not cold (relatively), but not over the long term trend.

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse