Whatever you think of the truckers' position or protest tactics, any punishment for their actions ought to go through the laws and court system. Trudeau instead essentially told the banking system "You can't do business with those people, they're terrorists." Patio11's words of what happened next:
"The assistant deputy finance minister...said...'The intent was not to get at the families', and when a democratic government starts a sentence that way something deeply #*&$#ed up has happened."
I'm not on the pulse of Canadian politics, so I don't really know what sins or political circumstances have led Trudeau to this point, or if he has any redeeming qualities. Personally, I'm glad to see him gone.
[1] https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/debanking-and-debunki...
(You'll have to Ctrl+F trucker as this blog doesn't seem to have <a name> for headings, as is customary on e.g. Wikipedia.)
The Emergencies Act is part of the laws of Canada:
* https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/e-4.5/
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emergencies_Act
And there were court orders:
* https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60356461
* 2022 ONSC 1001: https://www.canlii.org/en/on/onsc/doc/2022/2022onsc1001/2022... ; https://www.attorneygeneral.jus.gov.on.ca/english/docs/ISSUE...
Declaring the Emergency acts was overwhelmingly popular in Canada and remains one of the most popular things Trudeau ever did. The moves to restrict access to banking affected less than 20 people (and I think they were generally funnelling money from international propaganda groups or committing similar financial crimes).
We put up with the occupation for about two weeks, but we saw a steady escalation and decided to leave town. We stayed with family for two weeks until the convoy was cleared.
I'm very proud of the residents who were brave enough to put up a resistance (the so-called "Battle of Billings Bridge"), and I'm appalled by the response by the local police and the province. I absolutely believe the federal government made the correct choice, and this was proven out in the public hearing after the fact on the use of the Emergency Act.
The convoy drove across the country, broadcasting their intentions on social media. Yet, everyone acted shocked when they did exactly what they said they were going to do.
I hesitate to call them protesters because I don't think they had a permit or a cohesive message beside F* Trudeau, but they were completely disrespectful to other citizens, and I could never defend their actions. However, irrespective of how unpopular their actions were, the courts have deemed the federal government's response unreasonable and unconstitutional, and I agree with that assessment.
The government could have dealt with this earlier and more directly, but whatever passes for "leadership" these days in Canada has proven itself completely inept.
Personally, I would like to see an inquiry into foreign interference in our elections, but I guess that’s not considered a pressing issue anymore.
Blocking a road is a fire hazard and should never have been tolerated by local police for that reason alone. You cannot impede transit in a city.
Also, it takes a couple of hours to get the police to unblock a road. Last time I checked, money movement in bank accounts does not block roads.
Where on earth does this stat come from?
I agree a police response or similar was sensible for the situations you mentioned, but they didn't rise to the level of national emergency.
Similar concerns happened when Harper and Ottawa mayor at the time denied the rights and freedoms of protestors of the G20.
It's concerning how the "true north, strong, and free" is losing that last part.
Read more at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_G20_Toronto_summit_protes...
Maybe it's just because I'm part of a minority but your entire comment is exactly the issue with Canadian politics. We basically have 0 rights the moment a majority decides that we don't. I guess that's the perks of having an incredibly ineffective constitution.
I take exception to the framing of “attempts to settle this.” The government used violence and threat of violence to make the problem go away. There wasn’t an attempt at compromise. Do what I say or else isn’t an attempt to settle.
This is what a protest is. (French here). If protesters go as far, and in Canada it was because you did them dirty, then you must sit at a table and negotiate. You must sit at a table and negotiate with everyone in a country. You cannot do someone dirty then complain that they protest.
It’s effects removing the right to protest, and therefore, removing democracy itself. Go live in Singapore?
By your logic they should be.
Isn't that why you have the police, army, etc? You use force to remove those people breaking the laws, not go after their families. That's some USSR shit.
This seems like a pretty big conclusion to reach based on one article and one topic, no? Especially when you, in the same sentence, also recognize that you don't follow Canadian politics?
docs: https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/URI/Fragment/Te...
your link: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/debanking-and-debunki...
Find this extremely annoying, especially in search results: I want to start at the beginning of the article/post, and not some random place in the middle—which is where the highlighted snippet in the search results are from, but not helpful for learning the larger context.
It also tends to mess up URLS that you may want to copy-paste as it has that text parameter garbage at the end (often with a sizeable amount of text that needs to be removed).
I think this is important regardless of whether you believe in their specific target of protest or not. The right to peacefully protest is very very important, and your feelings on a specific protest should be wholly divorced from the importance of preserving the right to protest in general.
Nobody was held hostage. People unhappy with their rulers took peacefully to the streets and made noise and peacefully and temporarily interfered with some business activity.
This is the furthest thing from “holding the government hostage”. It’s the adversarial relationship between the populace and the state working exactly as intended and designed.
Wait, are people that shocked that their democratic governments are wiling to act like mobsters/dictators against a minority group just to get their way and appease a majority, when the history books are full of such examples? People must have a short memory then and why history repeating itself is a fact.
Also how 'dangerous' was the convoy perceived to be?
Were the actions of the Government deemed to be overreach?
Is KD unhealthy slop or delicious, and how do you feel about adding hot dogs or other toppings?
> It's a story of everyone going way too far.
> The government(s) went way overboard with Pfizer proof of purchase QR codes to get lunch. Especially when uptake was 80%+
> They also went overboard by locking down again over the holidays when everyone was already catching the most contagious Omicron. People not being able to go to a gym to stay fit, that already needed a barcode, swayed a lot of the public that things were going on too long.
> But the obnoxiousness of the truckers also went too far for too long. The news of rifles and arrests in Alberta was (obviously) too far.
> I don't have a citation on hand, but at one point more than a third of Canadians did support either the truckers explicitly or their aims, and that's a higher percentage than voted for the current governing party. Support was higher among younger people, sometimes over 50%. But this percentage decreased as time went on.
> The government also completely failed to act diplomatically or to de-escalate the situation. Instead we had inflammatory rhetoric and a focus on some silly flags (which should be condemned, but a lot of people have doubts as to their sincerity, and I've seen some pretty gross signs against the unvaxxed too)
> Some people, even in this comment section, take their rhetoric and opposition too far.
> There is no doubt in my mind that the more time passes, the more we will look at Canada's response to the pandemic (especially in its later years) as a horrendous failure that harmed trust in public health, harmed social cohesion, and harmed our democratic and civil institutions. Everyone failed and everyone suffered as a result.
Meanwhile Trudeau did what... airports and borders. The feds influence here was not high. ArriveCAN was a debacle, obviously. But the trucker thing was US initiated.
I don't think there's anything the feds could have done to head this off. They couldn't make the trucker vax thing not happen, not with Biden insisting on it. They had no control over what was happening in workplaces and schools across the country. Their biggest fault, I think, was being weak -- which the opposition took advantage of to create mayhem and try to bring the govt down.
That the people organizing the protest were in part former oil industry lobbyists and had previously been involved in climate change denying anti-carbon tax protests should also make one pause about what the motivations might be and where the money might be coming from, as well?
Regardless, I think we agree: by January with Omicron showing that it would transmit like crazy regardless of vaccine, mandates everywhere should have been dropped.
The handling of the trucker protest is not why he resigned. It is not why he is unpopular.
I think we need to be careful when reading these opinions to not mix up Americans’ views, Russian trolls with legitimate Canadian discourse.
Canadian politics (not uniquely here) is plagued with petty squabbles. The really meaningful political and social issues don't get any airtime.
120dB train horns at 2AM in the morning in a residential area is not a minor inconvenience.
This just illustrates why pure/Athenian democracy doesn’t work. Madness of the crowds and all that. Decide most issues by plebescite and you get an emotional outcome.
The trucker protests were right in the middle of the Covid supply chain issues. Not defending the actions taken in particular, but it had the potential to be a much worse issue than a minor inconvenience.
people who are geniuses at one thing may be completely out of their depth in other areas
I think this is sadly a demonstration of one of those
Your personal opinion seems to be completely uninformed or misinformed, by the way you tried to frame it as something done to truckers instead of what it actually was: lifting a blockade.
It's even more baffling when taken into account the alleged motivation: COVID-19 restrictions.
> I'm not on the pulse of Canadian politics, (...)
It shows.
> I don't really know what sins or political circumstances have led Trudeau to this point
> Personally, I'm glad to see him gone
Why do people do this? You don't keep up with Canadian politics and you don't know what led Trudeau to this point, yet you're glad he's gone? Is it not OK anymore to just not have opinions either way, and people have to take a stance on everything?
Now it's all "You should be a 51st state" and "Oh your Trudeau is a COMMUNIST and needs to GO!"
- Wow, for no reason you're glad to see him gone?
Canada is not the US. Why would it matter when the judiciary is not a co-equal branch of government?
i.e. When there is Parliamentary sovereignty/supremacy?
An inferior authority can never legally overrule a superior authority by definition.
Then there is an external guarantor of the rights of the people against the government.
Uh really? Is this another version of “Both sides” claiming you don’t know the pulse whilst amplifying a more right leaning, niche, view?
He could have rested on his laurels knowing history would likely forget his shortcomings & scandals, and be remembered as the prime minister who got us legal weed, navigated the covid pandemic, brought clean drinking water to FN reserves and advanced social programs (childcare, dental care).
Instead he's likely going to be known as the prime minister who had to be forcibly walked to the door by Canadians and his party, while leaving the country in a precarious position during tumultuous times.
This is an interesting statement in that, sadly, the person making the threats is not joking yet to those that have not drunk the kool-aid it is an utter joke of a concept.
If Poilievre gets elected, will he willingly join the USA? It seems that the world is more and more aligned by political spectrum rather than national allegiance.
Particularly look at the projected Liberal seat count.
This gov was propped up by a supply agreement with the NDP in order to maintain parlimentary confidence. The NDP leader becomes eligible for a generous pension scheme if he stays an MP to some point in February. As such the timing for all this is no coincidence, and people have been expecting this for a while, but it is shocking just how shamelessly self serving it all is.
One of the final nails in the coffin was the resignation of Chrystia Freeland, his last standing ally and Finance Minister.
This video from CBC a couple weeks ago on Freeland explains the rifts in Trudeau's government well https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SuZTLWNlpc
Canadian prime ministers often expire after 10 years for one reason or another
There will likely be an election in 3ish months with a new liberal leader in place of Trudeau
At earliest, May 5th (March 24th parliament comes back, instantly votes no confidence, governor general issues writ the same day, the shortest possible campaign period is 37 days and election day must fall on a Monday).
At latest, Oct 27th (regularly scheduled election is Oct 20th, but that might be delayed by 7 days due to scheduling conflicts - see Bill C-65).
Likely somewhere in between there. All the opposition parties have been signalling that they intend to vote no confidence. Assuming that doesn't change though, there's likely at least a few days lag between parliament coming back, and that happening. The campaign period is likely not to be as short as possible (with an allowable range of 37 to 51 days).
Was it expected? Eh - kind of. In the last few weeks much of Trudeau's cabinet has resigned or voiced their disapproval. NDP has signaled they would support bringing down the government.
Both the opposition Conservatives and the supporting NDP parties (NDP in particular was holding up the Liberal Minority Govt) have been planning non-confidence motions this month that would result in a new election.
There was no path to victory for Trudeau after that, so the next best move is to resign and hope the liberals can pick a new leader before the next electoral cycle is too far along and avoid the issue the Democrats had by rushing to select a replacement candidate and alienating some portion of voters by doing so.
There is no term limit for PM or members of parliament.
They stay on until they lose the support of their party.
He lost the support of his party due to his extreme unpopularity and the impact it will have on the future election. As seen by polls and bye elections.
More often the leader loses party support after an election loss.
However in this case, a loss is so likely and expected to be so bad that his party would rather go to the polls with a different leader.
I suppose standard procedure in a Westminster parliament is to have a non confidence vote and an election - which is what the opposition parties said would happen when Parliament sits again. Poroguing parliament and having a leadership race is probably a way to try and avoid that or at least go into the election with a less unpopular leader.
Proguing parliament is probably the best thing for the liberal party to avoid an election with an unpopular leader. But I don't think it's good for Canada as it states down Trump's tariffs
For many months liberal backbenchers have been calling for him to resign. Though obviously not 'likely to happen'
Only weeks ago(mid december) Trudeau refused his own caucus' call to resign. Saying he was staying on to fight for Canadians. Freeland quit with a flaming public letter and he still said he's staying in the game.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberals-renew-calls-trudea...
Didnt really do much, it took weeks more before he finally resigned yesterday. Despite this, still no resignation. Now parliament has been mostly suspended due to the liberal's failure to submit documents. A significant scandal.
The reason his caucus is upset is because the vast majority of them will lose in the next election. Polling suggesting they hold onto ~20 seats in an Ignatief level of fail. Resignation will still be quite unlikely. From a strategic point of view, taking the L election night and then letting a new liberal leader rebuild their reputation over 4 years is the right move.
You'll now have a leadership race where nobody wants the career ending job. The rats that try to fight for it just want their name as prime minister.
Yet here he finally resigned. Change Control dictates it was the gun ban.
The polls post-gun ban put the liberals in single digit seats. It was over for him. The gun ban ended Trudeau.
However, our upcoming election is this year. It certainly does not surprise me that Trudeau is stepping down from leader of the Liberal party in light of the polling, since the polls are predicting that if an election were called today, the conservatives would win in such a landslide that I don't think many countries have even seen that before. Of course polling and actual election results are two very different things... but I think the Liberal party sees the writing on the wall. If they hope to have any shot of getting re-elected, they can't do it with Trudeau at the head.
... but that doesn't necessarily mean that we all saw him resigning as PM incumbent coming. He's also proroguing parliament until March. This is probably a move to get the other parties to step back and "STFU"; to not pass any motions during the party shift (particularly related to calling an early election etc).
Lastly, as others have said, the PM position is usually held for an average of 9-10 years (and that's multiple terms .. most incumbents just get re-elected into second and third terms). Trudeau was elected in 2015 so he's about due to exit anyway if we go by averages (though some have served longer).
I think if the liberals can delay the election until October, their results won't be so bad, especially if Trump keeps saying dumb things down in America (as he is prone to do), making alignment with the conservatives less popular (they will still win, just not the huge landslide that they can take now).
I guess it always ends bad if you stick around long enough.
There are many indigenous communities that now have water that are better off than before he was PM.
Speaking for myself I think things in 2019 were better than 2015. The pandemic and things after the pandemic (hi inflation and spiking interest rates) have not been quite so fun but these are global issues and people around the world have had a similar experience. Arguably there is more Trudeau could have done but some things are beyond his reach (eg. Bank of Canada sets interest rates).
If you're a person without an established home you own you probably feel things are disastrously worse than 2015 when you presumed that surely eventually you'd own one. If you already own a home you probably care quite a bit less.
Housing was deeply dysfunctionally broken in the major cities well before Trudeau became PM in 2015 and the lazy status quo approach of his government ensured that the contagion of housing shortage would spread Canada wide. It's mostly Provincial and Municipal governments that are at fault but plenty of fault for the feds too. Despite the fact that Fed housing policy right now is better than it's ever been the damage has been done.
The CAD is sitting at about $0.70 USD right now, which isn't really outside of it's typical range, and not really unexpected given the difference in interest rate now between Canadian & US interest rates. If you look at historical prices it looks more like business-as-usual, the CAD usually bounces between 0.70-0.80 USD.
This might be splitting hairs, but I think this is more about the strength of USD than the weakness of CAD. I don't know that you can say CAD has "collapsed" when every other major currency has seen a similar (or worse) drop compared to USD over the last 10 years.
The largely conservative provinces have done a very good job of blaming Trudeau and immigration for problems that are entirely their own.
If it was one or two provinces you would be correct, but when every province is facing the same issue(s), then the turd starts to stick to the feds... The immigration issue is a prime example, he announced higher than normal targets but didn't consult or work with the provinces about this, which caused many provinces to be taken by surprise and have their social systems overwhelmed by the influx of people. Many of these same systems where still recovering from covid... so yea recipe for disaster.
The feds run the RCMP, they set most criminal laws and sentencing, bail policy etc. As Poilievre repeats ad naseum, the same 40 repeat offenders are arrested thousands of times in Vancouver. It doesn't matter how good a job the police do if the justice system refuses to punish them.
I don't know what are the problems we're facing in education but I don't think that is on the top of the list of why Canadians are feeling frustrated with the Liberals.
No. Immigration reduces available housing. Immigration overloads the health care system. Immigration strains the education system. Immigration creates ethnic enclaves that are hard to police.
Immigration is a federal responsibility. Trudeau and the Liberals are to blame.
As you've already concluded, the answer is absolutely not. The Canada I grew up with, and mind you my family are immigrants from the 90s and early 2000s ourselves, is completely shattered.
What happened?
I hate to be repeat a meme but land value tax would fix this.
That's the problem with J.T., our economic growth has been vastly Government employees.. our private sector is dying..
"March 2016, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and U.S. President Obama instructed their respective cabinet members responsible for international trade to explore all options for resolving the trade dispute.[32] Canada's international trade minister, Chrystia Freeland, said that "what we have committed to is to make significant, meaningful progress towards a deal—to have the structure, the key elements there a 100 days from now"."
Then:
"April 24, 2017, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said his agency will impose new anti-subsidy tariffs averaging 20 percent on Canadian softwood lumber imports, a move that escalates a long-running trade dispute between the two countries...
"On April 25, 2017, the Trump administration announced plans to impose duties of up to 24% on most Canadian lumber, charging that lumber companies are subsidized by the government..."
Then:
"On August 19, 2024, the US raised tariff rates on imports of Canadian softwood lumber products from 8.05% to 14.54%".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada%E2%80%93United_States_s...
I can't. Seems like something else has been going on. Potentially you could name Ireland, by becoming a tax haven, screwing over everyone else instead.
But I do anecdotally agree with your point as a whole: it feels like there has been a slowing or potentially reversal of progress. Perhaps to be expected given the pandemic though.
https://www.ipolitics.ca/news/crown-corp-loans-500-million-f...
When Trudeau first took office, he was the meme of being Canada's young and handsome PM, and he enjoyed a good few years of "honeymoon" period that many leaders can only wish for.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=2015+justin+trudeau+handsome&df=20...
Let's face it. Most problems require patient approaches. Often changes that are made won't show their effects until years or decades later. Unfortunately that encourages short term thinking towards the next election in government and population alike.
You can just lie at a velocity never seen before on this planet, spread falsehoods via social media, breed outrage, spread conspiracies and then elected.
It's disgusting.
It's not a fun time, and I'd hate to be "in charge"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama_tan_suit_controve...
I follow US politics regularly, but I hadn't heard of this so I don't know how well it's known... but it has it's own page so maybe I'm in the minority here.
That and his choice of mustard, and other things. The "Thanks, Obama!" ads, and so on
Unfortunately the bitter partisan divide really amped up in that period, and we're living with the fallout still.
Probably big in some circles, unnoticed in others.
- Britain's Tory defeat.
- India's and Hungary's main party still winning, but by less than expected. India's main party no longer holds a majority in Parliament.
- In South Korea, the liberal opposition has won the majority of seats in the National Assembly.
Even in developing countries, incumbent disadvantage is almost everywhere. Look at the map in https://abcnews.go.com/538/democrats-incumbent-parties-lost-.... And in a couple examples where the majority gained (Mexico, Dominican Republic, Moldova) they are the left.
Relevant slides are #97 and #101.
Percentage of class with Full time positions outside of Canada: 71.5%
Median Total compensation for US positions is about double the Median Total compensation for Canadian positions.
Low compensation ranges here are in fact in part the fault of fed gov't policy. Industry freaked out about "labour shortage" and the government responded.
The database of LMIA (Labour Market Impact Assessment) applications is public. You can see for yourself how many thousands of software engineering jobs were filled this way. (Including by big "elite" tech companies like Apple, Google, Amazon, etc.) This was deliberate policy to bring in foreign talent from India, China, etc. in order to fill a "shortage" of us, which well, that shortage was less about "can't find someone" as "I can't find someone cheap enough."
In this case I don't actually blame Trudeau or the libs -- they're on the whole too stupid about our sector to understand that in fact these low compensation ranges harm our industry more than they help. I blame corporate interests who have the ear of the gov't and misled them into thinking that somehow this would make Canada "competitive" in information tech.
All it does is force good talent to leave the country, and encourage sweat shops to open up offering mediocre "IT" services.
We're subsidizing our own Canadian students to go through great schools like U Waterloo, etc. and then losing most of them the moment they graduate, as they go to the US on a TN1. And in exchange...
I've been in this industry long enough (25 years) to have seen things go up and down relative to the US a few times. This is the worst it's ever been. Especially because you can no longer make the argument that "I may get paid less but it costs less to live here" -- that ship sailed 10 years ago.
I guess you’re trying to say there is no money there because of Trudeau ?
Oh please, you had lots of time to address this and instead you've just handed us to the conservatives.
There was multiple systems being suggested. NDP preferred MMP. Personally I wanted STV, but the Liberal party wanted alternate vote, the system that would benefit them the most.
Once they realized public and other party support was for systems other than Alternative Vote they backed out.
Trudeau wanted electoral reform. But only one kind of electoral reform. A ranked ballot system.
When he couldn't get that, because the NDP and Bloc said "No F'ing Way" (for reasons I'll get into below), he sabotaged the whole committee and forced it shut.
After that he only had minority governments. So there was no way he was going to re-open the issue because he still wouldn't get the result he wanted.
Why ranked ballots, and why are the NDP opposed to them?
Because in a ranked ballot system the Liberals would be the 2nd choice of the majority of Canadians. It would effectively end the NDP as a viable electoral party. At least that's now the NDP saw it. I think a look at other ranked ballot system countries would definitely provide evidence that it tends to produce two-party system outcomes (see Australia, effectively a two party system)
The NDP's preference is for a Mixed Member Proportional system like in Germany. As a partner in a coalition minority gov't with Trudeau there is no way they would have accepted anything else. And key people in the Liberal party will never ever accept such a system, since it would mean governing forever along with the NDP, their ideological opponent (no matter what other people might tell you.)
So, yeah, screw Trudeau, and thank god he's gone (he should have resigned after he failed a majority last time around), but I think people need to dig more on this issue and why he might be saying this:
He wants "electoral reform" and regrets not getting it, because if they had accomplished what they wanted (ranked ballots), they would probably have a good chance at another election win. Yikes.
I agree that the conservatives are not a good choice, but apparently for the opposite reason as you - the conservatives are unlikely to be able to fix much of the damage Trudeau has inflicted on the country, especially w.r.t. unfettered immigration.
The PPC is the only one with any sensible policies IMO, but unfortunately they won't be competitive in the upcoming national election.
Since Trudeau has been elected the likelihood of purchasing a home or finding a job has drastically reduced and continues to fall. Rising tides raise all boats, given that the rent has risen everywhere too.
This creates a divide between the have and have-nots of property ownership and public or private employment. This divides ends in the individuals who have are happy since their investment skyrocketed while the have-nots are left with no hope for their future.
As for employment, the primary job growth is in public sector (government jobs) which are ultimately a parasitic value add to the economy.
Given this, it's easy to see the negative sentiment in Trudeau and his cabinet. This sentiment seems to have hit a crescendo with the recent release of the over-shot budget deficit.
Thoughts?
Washington D.C. now is only behind SF and Seattle in average income. If you want money you either work for a sector that is booming or the government.
IMO, altering immigration levels would have the most tangible affect on the housing and jobs (unsure about the US). I'm not bullish on the idea that we can build residences quickly and the government spending is hard to control with poor financial auditing among the current administration.
and prayers!
In this case he intends to stay on until his party selects a new Prime Minister
- Lower wealth inequality
- Safer, with lower crime rates, especially violent crime
- Higher life expectancy
It is much more accessible, much easier to get about, far less hostile and any loss in wealth is offset by actually being able to enjoy my time more.
The US is good to anyone who can pay. And my career made it such that I earn a lot more in the US that I would in Canada, so the US has been good to me. It's unclear how widespread that experience actually is. There's a lot of statistics that this is one of the best times to be alive (despite our very cynical / negative attitude about it).
But personally, I have no intent of going back, if only because of the weather.
Any tips or advice?
Being poor or sick sucks here.
The linked article isn't particularly helpful.
The strategy clearly worked for him until it didn't.
could have been a good time!
There’s a good chance Trump will say that he endorses Pierre Pollievre in the coming months causing a number of Canadians to turn their nose at him. This is also a calculated risk.
Often that happens after a devastating election loss.
In this case it is happening because of his extreme unpopularity before the election and his parties hope of improving their election prospects under a different leader
Overal Picture
Canada has seen gdp-per-capita decline for nearly every quarter over the past 3 years. Large stimulus spending during the pandemic fueled the housing crisis and added massive inflation. Stimulating the economy through similarly massive increases in Non-Permanent Residents has kept GDP afloat, but come at the cost of over-burdening public institutions and housing. Contiuing either policy is not possible and deeply unpopular. Canadians now pay more taxes than any US state, have housing more expensive than New York, but with productivity below that of the poorest state and our dollar running a major discount. This while our public instutions are struggling to meet demand.
1. Recurring themes in Canadian Politics
2. Recent history of the federal liberals
3. Current issues facing the government
Recurring Themes in Canadian Politics
- Unlike the U.S. where there are multiple strong centers of politics and commerce (East Cost, West Coast, Texas), Canada political power is centered largely along the St. Lawrence River where most of the country's population lives.
- Trends arising from this include: Quebec receiving, relative to its population, outsized benefits and influence in exchange for remaining part of the country and as result of French speaking requirements for the federal government. Quebec has nearly exited the country several times
- Canada is still largely a resource-based economy and possess an impressive amount of natural resources: oil, natural gas, largest uranium reserves in the world, more freshwater than all other countries combined, etc.
- The concentration of power in the East while most resource development happening in the West, creates a quasi-colonial between the Ontario/Quebec and the younger and resource heavy provinces, particularly the Prairies.
- Economically, Canada priviledges large incumbent businesses and most of its sectors are oligopolies. The reasoning for doing so historically has been to fend of larger, well funded US competitors.
Recent History of the federal liberals
- Liberals have historically have been centrist party, taking popular ideas from both socialist NDP (who have yet to win a federal election) and the federal Conservative party (itself a coaltion of social and fiscal conservatives created by Harper in the 90s).
- 2015 Justin Trudeau came in as the most popular Prime Minister in history with a majority government. Major legislation included legalizing weed and improvements to Child Benefits. The majority was lost in 2019 with Conservatives gaining the popular vote.
Overall Picture - In Detail
- Economic Issue #1: Lagging economy. Canada is still largely a resource based economy (see above) and business investment in that sector, and Canada overall, declined drastically starting in 2015, arguably due to increasing opportunities for resource development in the U.S. and the Canadian Federal Government stance towards non-reweables. Business investment is more a leading indicator, but still a major economic issue for Canada.
- Economic Issue #2: Increased cost of housing. Canadian housing costs in major cities has reached crisis levels even leading up to the pandemic. Our major cities like Toronto and Vancouver are some of the most unaffordable in the world. Most people who have been in Canada have seen housing in their cities go from achieveable-if-expensive (in major regions) to impossibly unaffordable. Most major cities now require 30+ of saving (at the average income) for a downpayment with a salary in the top 1% to purchase a home.
- Economic issue #3: Large inflation, combined with increased costs from consolidated markets with little competition. Not unlike other countries post-pandemic, but reports show major costs of living such as groceries have seen above-inflation levels of price increases due to industry consolidation. I.E. Many parts of Canada have one 2 major suppliers of grociers
- Immigration Issue #1: Non-permanent Residents. Canada has 2 classes of immigrants (aside from Refugees, whih make up a small number): Permanent Residents (PR's) and Non-permanent residents (NPR's). Our PR system is what is widely hailed as one of the best in the world and a point of Canadian pride. The NPR system has been substantially expanded under the Trudeau government and arguably exploited with millions of NPR's entering as temporary workers and university students. NPR's now consist of over 7% of the population (larger than then Indigenous population).
- Social Cohesion: most of Canada's public services (healthcare, teaching, even postal services, etc) have seen substantial degradation and a struggle to meet capacity.
- Lastly, it should be noted that Canada has tax system well above any US state. Historically, most Canadians have not have a problem with this because of the relative strength of our public institutions.
Current Issues facing the Goverment
- If the federal liberals have an election, they will lost most of their seats. They may even lose party status. They will likely avoid this at all costs.
- The federal NDP are not projected to lose seats, but will lose influence they gain by upholding the minority government. They gain little from a federal election.
- Given an early election is not likely and Trudeau is facing revolts internally (his key finance minister and deputy PM resigned publicly in the past few weeks), the choice is to stop parliment while they look for a new PM (trudeau may act as the interim). If they choose an existing MP for PM (maybe Freeland) they risk being associated with a deeply unpopular party. If they chose an outsider (like Mark Carney), they risk just as much backlash for an unelected PM.
> stimulus spending during the pandemic fueled the housing crisis
One caveat: as far as I know, taxation in Canada is pretty similar to New York or California.
2024 was a banner year for voting against the incumbent governments worldwide. Globally we have a cost-of-living crisis, a housing affordability crisis and a years-long decrease in the standard-of-living. Generally speaking, each country has 3 forces that are in play:
1. Progressives;
2. Neoliberals / centrists; and
3. Outright fascists.
The French election was a prime example of how this plyas out. Macron, a centrist, very much sided with the fascists rather than the progressives, such as who he picked to be Prime Minister after the snap election he called.
Some say the UK is an outlier with Labor winning a massive victory. It is not. The former Labor leader, Jeremy Corbyn, was weakened by a divided electorate so he could be character-assassinated in a coordinated campaign alleging anti-semitism to be replaced by a neoliberal centrist (Keir Starmer). Starmer actually got significantly fewer votes than Corbyn did in his two elections. All that happened was the right-wing vote got split between Conservatives and Reform.
The US election played out similarly. Despite evidence of Biden's cognitive decline being apparent as early as of Spring 2021, he ran for reelection and was supported by the Democratic establishment right up until a disastrous debate performance made clear his position was untenable. Nancy Pelosi reportedly wanted an open primary at the convention. Instead Kamala Harris was anointed as the Democratic establishment feared a progressive candidate would win a primary.
So we got a Wall Street approved centrist neoliberal platform that disrupted nothing and gave absolutely nothing to working people and had a policy platform on many issues (eg the death penalty, Israel-Palestine, immigration, deregulation) with almost no daylight between it and the Trump platform.
Unsurprisingly that platform lost, badly. Predictably.
The point here is that in every election, neoliberals are way more comfortable with (and will side with) fascists than leftists or pgoressives.
Voters, eager for change, will choose populism because they aren't being offered any alternative. But nobody wants to address the root causes here: housing unaffordability and massive wealthy inequality.
Too many people are invested in their house as an investment, as their nest-egg. House prices absolutely have to come down and nobody wants to hear that. Canada is a real estate bubble, just like pretty much every other Western nation.
People will cling to their house prices as society crumbles around them.
> Canada is a real estate bubble, just like pretty much every other Western nation
Exacerbated by the fact opportunities limited to a few geographic hotspots.
100 million Canadians is not a bad idea once it starts developing other urban centres. But the first 20 million is going to try their hardest to shitup the GTA.
You say this like it's a given, but I'm not so sure anymore. The word fascist has lost most of its meaning by being applied to everyone from Donald Trump to J. K. Rowling. Can you explain specifically what you mean by this?
Well then, frankly, given your apparent learning, try encouraging progressives to actually address the root causes, rather than constantly spouting progressive-sounding apologia for them. Not to tell you in another country how your politics works, but I know that in the United States and in some other countries I'm acquainted with, the progressive base in major cities are, if anything, even more attached to their housing nest-eggs than the homeowner/smallholder classes in smaller cities and more conservative states. This preference is visible in the differences of housing policy and rents between, say, California and Texas.
No need to get conspiratorial.
https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/s&p500-mean-re...
The Liberals under J.T. has proposed a ban on assault style weapons (not assault weapons, mind you which are already banned) that so far has cost over $70M without guns being collected. The estimate cost is over $800M to collect them.
The last time we had a gun control fantasy was also under the Liberals. They proposed a long gun registry that they estimated would cost $2M a year. By the time it was cancelled 20 years later, the total cost was over $2B.
Leftists want to be armed for community defense (and because Marx and other leftist writers wrote about the importance of being armed).
That said, if I show up at the range with a pride flag on my rifle people lose their shit about it, so I guess we have a ways to go before we've got left-right solidarity there.
Amongst the Canadian PMs I've experienced, Chretien, Martin, Harper, Trudeau made the most impactful and positive policy changes (eg. legal cannabis, childcare) while navigating the country through the challenges of covid and Trump NAFTA renegotiations.
The negatives of his term are recent and largely tied to global issues being faced by many countries right now (eg. inflation) and so I expect future historians to hand wave these away.
https://www.cicnews.com/2022/07/canadas-unemployment-rate-dr...
By all accounts he will be looked at as one of the worst considering the position Canada was in at the start and end of his government.
Inflation, unemployment, housing, homelessness, healthcare, crime, national unity, the overall economy. .. Just all of these things are significantly worse than 2015.
With that being said I do think cannabis + child care were both wins... but like at what cost.
Also feels like with cannabis all of society was already trending there seemed like a very easy win.
Then with childcare it is a win but it is also complicated as many daycares have unenrolled from the program because it doesn't cover enough of the cost.
I prefer the term: two-party state
Would love to see explanations of downvotes since this is factually true...
I mean it is kinda obvious that the system in western democracies is structurally flawed such that there's a selection bias for crooks and incompetent assholes (lobbying, i.e. legalized bribery), but still, how come the bad guys always seem to win? Or is this just a symptom of a deeper malady of modern society?
I've been working on a side project over the holidays related to this, but nothing to share yet unfortunately. Suffice to say, I would love it if we could frame discussions around specific policy issues, and focus on listening to one another and prioritizing and agreeing on problems as a first step before jumping straight into political rhetoric and speaking only to one's own base or those who already agree with you.
Also somewhat related - the history of decline of political discourse is staggering. Apparently in the US, Abraham Lincoln used to debate by having 90 minutes of uninterrupted complex analysis. This has been replaced by modern debate formats like those popularized by the Jubilee YouTube channel which optimize for 10 second clips.
Interestingly, there is a counter movement where long-form interviews are becoming popular again among niche crowds who actually want to hear and discuss issues. Joe Rogan, Jordan Peterson, Lex Friedman, Sam Harris, Destiny to name a few. I don't think we've seen the end of the changes for these discussion mediums. Hopefully we'll see changes for the better!
“Trudeau to resign as prime minister after Liberal leadership race”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-news-conference-1.7...
(The new link and headline are now accurate and reflect the actual situation.)
It has been, in the past customary for leaders of parties that fail to win a majority (after being in a minority) mandate to resign. That Trudeau a) called the last election at all and b) failed to resign after getting the same result as when they entered into it... is frustrating.
It certainly created an appearance of weakness that I suspect fed into the situation with the convoy.
Also probably tactically stupid, because he got to hold the blame for all the post-COVID problems.
It was always dysfunctional. It's just that it wasn't noticed early on.
What we've been watching for the last 18 months has been the slow collapse of the governing Liberal Party, led by Justin Trudeau (LPC) - Polling and projections have been turning heavily against the LPC since last summer (2023), and the internal party cracks started showing after a by-election (special election, to fill an empty seat) loss in Toronto this summer and then one in Montreal not long after. Both Toronto and Montreal are considered the LPC's "heartland" and losses there suggest that the polls are correct in predicting a huge defeat for the LPC in a general election. A few Members of Parliament (MPs) began pressuring Trudeau to step down as party leader (and therefore Prime Minister (PM)) and some announced that they would not run again. At time of writing, a third by-election has just been lost by the Liberals.
The next Canadian general election must be held no later than October 2025. That is because the last election was in late 2021. That 2021 election led to a "minority government" in which the Liberal Party won the most individual seats (districts, ridings, constituencies, etc.) but not more than half of them. As a Westminster Parliament with plurality voting (First Past the Post, winner-takes-all) coalitions are not common in Canada, and the minority government usually operates on a vote-by-vote basis with other parties, while allowing their party to form the government. Some votes, notably ones about the budget, are called "confidence votes" and if one fails, the government has "lost the confidence of the House of Commons" and must either call an election or allow opposition parties to try to gain the confidence of the house and form a new government.
Minority governments do not usually last the full length before another general election must be called by law. This one has lasted longer than average because the LPC signed an agreement with a smaller party called the NDP. The NDP demanded some new welfare policies such as subsidized dental care and some medications and in return would support the LPC in confidence votes. The NDP's leader, Jagmeet Singh, announced this fall that he was ending the agreement with the LPC and would only support the government on a case-by-case basis. This is likely to save some of his party's own polling numbers, as they have also faltered (the junior party in coalitions or similar situations almost always fall more than the senior party, worldwide) but do result in the NDP looking weak as they heavily criticize the LPC government yet vote to keep it governing the country. The NDP do not want an election right now for several reasons: their own polling numbers are not good, they can squeeze more out of a minority LPC than the Conservatives who are strong favourites to win the next election (we'll get to them, don't worry), the party machine is short on money (they recently spent a lot of their funds on a close provincial election in British Columbia) and possibly because Singh wants to ensure himself and a few of his MPs have been elected long enough to meet the minimum requirement for a government pension. This last point has been heavily debated and used in Conservative attack ads, so make of it what you will.
So, what are Canadians unhappy about? The biggest item is cost of living - most things boil down to how much it costs for a roof over your head and food in your fridge. Housing costs have been astronomical in Vancouver and Toronto for decades, but have been rapidly increasing across the country. Another is immigration - like many countries, Canada's population is aging and there has long been a cross-partisan consensus that immigration is a great way to counter this. But since the pandemic the LPC increased immigration levels massively, especially in 2 sectors: student visas which were being taken advantage of by "diploma mill" shoddy private colleges that promised immigrants a pathway to residence, and low-skill temporary foreign workers (TFWs) who are employed in fast food or other entry-level positions. Not only has this put much more strain on the housing supply in major urban areas like Toronto or Vancouver, but it also brings down wages and facilitates abuse of these unfortunate people who just want to build a better life for themselves and their family. The LPC has also faced a lot of scandals. Every government is corrupt and has scandals, but there have been a lot from this government: from SNC-Lavalin and WE Charity earlier, to ArriveCAN and a cabinet minster lying about indigenous heritage to win government contracts more recently. As in the US, opioids have been devastating to Canadians, with tent encampments and overdose deaths no longer limited to just Vancouver's infamous Downtown Eastside. Police departments complain that the justice system is not responding well to repeat offenders either due to bail reforms or bleeding-heart judges. Finally there's the anti-incumbent bias we've seen in elections worldwide throughout 2024 and the Canadian trend of voting out a government after around a decade in power.
So let's get into who are likely to come next - the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC), led by Pierre Polievre since 2022. The CPC was last in power under Stephen Harper from 2006-2015 and has a lot of support in the western provinces of Canada, plus competes with the LPC and NDP in the suburbs of major cities. Polievre is a pugilistic career politician who has very successfully channelled the anger Canadians are feeling into a commanding polling lead. Polievre has been called a populist because he has levied much more criticism of the LPC government than policy suggestions, and for his schtick of reducing issues into "verb the noun" such as "axe the [carbon] tax", "build the homes" and "end the crime." But listening to his earlier speeches in Parliament suggest that Polievre is much more of a policy "wonk" than his current campaigning suggests.
When Parliament returns in March with a new Liberal Party leader (and Prime Minister), it is almost certain to be defeated immediately and an election will be called.
Trudeau will ask for, and likely get, a prorogation to give them time to choose a new leader. Add the 51 days for the election and it's likely to be a fall election.
Ultimately, the Canadian democracy has wanted a new prime minister for years and it's abhorrent it has (and is) taking this long to let the citizens vote.
Quite a few accounts who have been here for many years have been breaking the guidelines rather shamefully in this thread. That's dismaying. If established users can't set a good example for others, what chance does this community have? If Hacker News is interesting enough to keep coming back to for years, you owe it to your fellow members not to contribute to destroying it.
p.s. We changed the URL from https://www.bbc.com/news/live/clyjmy7vl64t. Interested readers might want to look at both.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-gdp-per-capita-rich-...
https://economics.td.com/ca-productivity-bad-to-worse
https://financialpost.com/opinion/justin-trudeau-legacy-coul...
see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ns7EsDVNwA&t=262s for a view that every Canadian knew was coming since last summer.