undefined | Better HN

0 pointselihu2y ago0 comments

Avdiivka is a tiny fraction of all of Ukraine, but it's still noteworthy that Russia is making significant progress there, and pushing in at other points on the whole front. Ukraine's lines aren't at imminent risk of collapsing, but they have a pretty serious shortage of artillery shells and other equipment, and it's taking a toll.

If the U.S. were still supplying Ukraine they'd be in a much better place.

0 comments

5 comments · 1 top-level

jncfhnb2y ago· 4 in thread

It’s not that noteworthy though. Russia cannot sustain the war effort at this cost and this pace for the entirety of Ukraine. It’s a really small place with minor strategic value. Incessant meat waves do eventually work buts it’s not a winning strategy.

“Sustain” is a really funky term that’s hard to define. Like, they can keep refurbing tanks. They can keep funneling out meat. But they can’t replace the ships. They can’t replace the sovereign wealth fund.

Not to say the US shouldn’t be sending every last bomb it can find

lukan2y ago

"Russia cannot sustain the war effort at this cost and this pace for the entirety of Ukraine. "

That is something I heard ... since the beginning of the war, yet I see no signs of it. Russias economy is in full war mode, producing way more tanks and shells than the west. Ukraine has serious ammunition and manpower problems and the front can collapse. Also Ukraine prepared for a succesful offensive, and neglected the defense.

"It’s a really small place with minor strategic value"

And that small place was one of the best fortified places and succesfully defended since 2014. The fallback positions are not nearly as good prepared. And the chances are low, that they can even fallback with no more roads under their control. It is really not looking good at the moment.

jncfhnb2y ago

Russias economy is extremely far from full war mode. Not even close. It is producing extremely few tanks, but is rather refurbishing old ones from storage.

The rest of the post is fiction

1 more reply

riku_iki2y ago

> Russia cannot sustain the war effort at this cost and this pace for the entirety of Ukraine.

the question is who will starve faster: Ukraine or Russia.

jncfhnb2y ago

A complete abandonment by the US could cause it to be Ukraine. With ample supplies, possibly even just by Europe, it is likely to be Russia.

1 more reply

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse