Engaging in rational debates with these individuals proves challenging, as they often dismiss any evidence presented as a sign that you are 'woke', deluded, or part of a clandestine group intent on their destruction.
I would debate you, by pointing out a lot of "green" policies disproportionately affect the working class, including AfD voters.
> frustrated and resistant to evidence that their meat consumption contributes to climate change
Start with banning private jets and asking the very wealthy to curtail their carbon footprint. Then asking everyday people to change their habits might be less than hollow words. Once the very privileged start leading by example, then others might follow. But of course, they won't do.
Germany's energy policy, eschewing nuclear, has not brought in a stable renewable energy system. It has destabilised Germany's political standing and made Germany overreliant on Russian gas.
I consider myself an environmentalist, which is why I don't spend time asking people to wear hair shirts.
1. *Impact of Human Activities:* A preponderance of scientific evidence supports the conclusion that human activities are causing climate change. A meta-study by Cook et al. in 2013 revealed a 97% consensus among publishing climate scientists that humans are causing global warming. This is supported by organizations like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and NASA. Human activities such as burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) and deforestation increase the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to global warming and resultant climate change.
2. *Impact on Working Class:* While it's true that some green policies could disproportionately affect the working class, it's also crucial to recognize that inaction on climate change will ultimately have severe socio-economic impacts, including on the working class. Rising sea levels, increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events, disruptions to food and water supply, and an increase in climate-induced migration and conflict will have widespread impacts. Thus, a fair transition to a low-carbon economy is needed, ensuring that the costs and benefits are shared equitably. Government policies could help in achieving this by offering subsidies for renewable energies, facilitating job transition, and implementing progressive taxation.
3. *Carbon Footprint of the Wealthy:* You're absolutely correct that wealthier individuals have larger carbon footprints and should lead by example. A study in 2020 reported that the richest 1% of the population produce double the combined carbon emissions of the poorest 50%. Advocating for the reduction of carbon footprints at every socio-economic level, starting from the top, is integral to combatting climate change.
4. *Nuclear vs. Renewables:* While it's true that Germany's shift from nuclear power has led to some reliance on natural gas, this should not be viewed as a failure of renewable energy. Rather, it highlights the complexities of energy transitions, which are often fraught with political, economic, and technical challenges. Renewables, in general, have seen significant advancements, with solar and wind power becoming increasingly cost-competitive. They have also shown great potential in reducing emissions if deployed properly and coupled with adequate storage solutions.
5. *Individual vs. Systemic Change:* It's not about wearing "hair shirts," but rather promoting sustainable choices wherever feasible. Nevertheless, systemic changes are indeed needed to address the scale of the problem. Governments, corporations, and institutions have significant roles to play in facilitating this change. This doesn't exempt individuals from responsibility, but rather emphasizes that both individual actions and systemic changes are essential in mitigating climate change.
Addressing climate change requires a multifaceted approach that incorporates social justice, economic stability, and environmental sustainability. It's a complex issue, but the evidence is clear: human-induced climate change is real, and action needs to be taken now to prevent its most catastrophic impacts.
Remember that they caused the stopping of nuclear power plant.
Climate change is not a pressing issue, with the rise of renewable we will clean up our act way before it cause serious issues.
With regard to conservative voice (as a former liberal) I can tell you it’s the left voice that doesn’t understand the conservatives and the value they bring.
Changing things imply destruction, and the desire to change everything fast has consequences, thus a return to traditions has a lot of merits. I encourage you to look past your prejudice against them and see what is missing in your vision.
Where are you getting that image from? We're on a path to 2.0 Kelvin warming which will make large parts of the earth uninhabitable and displace billions of people. How is that not a pressing issue?
In Germany they didn't. The plan to exit from nuclear power was enacted by a conservative coalition of CDU/FDP in 2011.
Funnily enough the year before they had dismantled the original exit plan from the year 2000 that was enacted by a coalition of SPD and the Green Party. But Fukushima happened and the old conservative position of "nuclear power good" suddenly became very, very unpopular in Germany.
> Climate change is not a pressing issue, with the rise of renewable we will clean up our act way before it cause serious issues.
That's not the scientific consensus on the issue and could not be further from the truth. We're already experiencing serious consequences from a changing climate. When we don't change now this will escalate to catastrophic consequences.
> it’s the left voice that doesn’t understand the conservatives and the value they bring.
Oh the left likely understands those values pretty well. They just happen to consider the promise of "everything will remain as it was" not so valuable when there is a high price to pay for refusing to change and adapt to a changing world.
> Changing things imply destruction, and the desire to change everything fast has
We would not have to move fast if the mostly conservative governments running Germany in the past 30 years would have used their time to gradually enact sufficient change.
> consequences, thus a return to traditions has a lot of merits.
There really never was a traditional world view or a way to live where everything was okay for everyone. But I'm not surprised you'd say that. Looking backwards and not forward is the core value of conservatism.
There is already enough CO2 in the atmosphere to cause serious issues. It's not an instantaneous process, but at this point it will happen.
1. *The Green Movement and Nuclear Power:* While it's true that some green advocates have opposed nuclear power, it's not accurate to say the entire green movement is against it. Many environmentalists see nuclear as a necessary part of the mix to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially in the short term, while renewable energy capacity is being built up.
2. *Urgency of Climate Change:* Climate change is indeed a pressing issue, according to a consensus of climate scientists. Rising temperatures, increased frequency of extreme weather events, loss of biodiversity, melting polar ice and rising sea levels are all current realities. While the growth of renewables is encouraging, current projections suggest we are not transitioning quickly enough to avoid severe impacts.
3. *Understanding Conservative Voices:* I agree with you that understanding and appreciating diverse perspectives is essential for a functioning democracy. It's not about left or right, but about finding common ground and working collectively for the common good. Climate change is a shared problem that requires cooperation across the political spectrum.
4. *Change vs. Tradition:* It's not about destroying traditions but evolving them to meet current and future challenges. Traditions can provide valuable lessons and a solid foundation upon which to build. Yet, we should also be open to new ideas and solutions that align with the scientific understanding of climate change and its potential impacts.
I believe that it's essential for us to look past our preconceptions and work together to address climate change, an issue that affects us all, regardless of political or ideological leanings.
As a recovering conservative (of 25 adult years) I can offer that any deafness is not only mutual, one side is currently bullhorning it as a virtue. As far as bolstering our energy supply, it isn't at all clear how revenge-based, hostility-flavored culture wars achieve this.
My observation is that one side has conjured up a boogey man from the worst possible perceptions of the other and now models all of it's own behavior on it. I can not see how this advances one worthwhile goal.
- Coral reef collapse and loss of marine biodiversity.
- Accelerated sea-level rise, resulting in coastal flooding and displacement of populations.
- Ocean acidification, harming shell-forming organisms and marine ecosystems.
- Disruption of ocean currents, leading to altered weather patterns and increased extreme weather events, potentially causing massive oceanic dead zones leading to
- Release of hydrogen sulfide (H2S) from warming ocean sediments and decaying organic matter, a potential extinction event.
---
Peter Ward: “Oceans - What’s the Worst that Can Happen?”
GPT-4:
The phenomenon you're describing is associated with an event referred to as a "Canfield Ocean" or "Strangelove Ocean." The hypothesis is named after paleoceanographer Donald Canfield, who proposed that several mass extinctions in Earth's history might have been caused by an increase in hydrogen sulfide (H2S) produced by sulfate-reducing bacteria when the oceans became depleted of oxygen (anoxic).
Under certain conditions, this is a theoretical possibility. If global warming were to result in widespread anoxia (lack of oxygen) in the oceans, it could potentially trigger a large-scale release of hydrogen sulfide gas. This gas is poisonous to most forms of aerobic life (those that require oxygen), and a significant increase in its concentration could lead to mass extinctions.
However, it's essential to note that while this hypothesis is theoretically plausible, it remains highly controversial, and the conditions required to trigger such an event are extreme. It's not a certainty that global warming would lead to widespread ocean anoxia, and even if it did, it's not clear that this would necessarily result in a large-scale release of H2S.
Moreover, our understanding of the exact causes and progression of the various mass extinctions in Earth's history remains incomplete, and there's ongoing debate among scientists about the role played by hydrogen sulfide. Other factors, such as volcanic eruptions, asteroid impacts, and changes in sea level, have also been implicated in these events.
To summarize, while the scenario you're describing is theoretically possible, it's still highly speculative and there's a lot we don't know. It's not something that's likely to happen in the near future, but it underlines the importance of taking ac
Also, this: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/no-strangelove...
"Sepúlveda's team was able to tell that the carbon in these post-impact sediments could only have been assembled into these hydrocarbons (and other compounds) in a functioning open ocean ecosystem with plenty of algae photosynthesizing away at a pretty good clip. Since these sediments were deposited right after the impact, the "Strangelove" ocean theory, with a vast lifeless sea, is highly unlikely."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturnin...
"The impacts of the decline and potential shutdown of the AMOC could include losses in agricultural output, ecosystem changes, and the triggering of other climate tipping points."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturnin...
"The possibility that the AMOC is a bistable system (which is either "on" or "off") and could collapse suddenly has been a topic of scientific discussion for a long time."
https://www.livescience.com/gulf-stream-slowing-climate-chan... (2021)
"The Gulf Stream — one of Earth's major climate-regulating ocean currents — is moving slower than it has in thousands of years, a new study suggests. Human-induced climate change is largely to blame."
"If the Gulf Stream crosses its tipping point, it will continue to weaken even if we have managed to stop global warming," Caesar told Live Science. "Afterwards, it will slow down by a lot, coming close to a complete shutdown of the circulation."
ME: "Release of hydrogen sulfide (H2S) from warming ocean sediments and decaying organic matter, a potential extinction event." Is this a realistic possibility?
GPT-4:
Hydrogen sulfide (H2S) release from ocean sediments and decaying organic matter is indeed a plausible mechanism that could cause significant environmental changes. This process is often associated with a scenario referred to as "Canfield Oceans" or "Canfield Ocean events."
Paleontologist Peter Ward, for instance, has proposed that hydrogen sulfide emissions from stagnant oceans could have contributed to several mass extinction events in Earth's history. In such scenarios, increased oceanic warmth and decreased circulation might have led to anoxic conditions (lack of oxygen) in the deeper ocean. These anoxic conditions, in turn, would allow sulfur bacteria to thrive, which would generate hydrogen sulfide as a metabolic by-product. The hydrogen sulfide would then be released into the atmosphere, where it could cause significant environmental disruption, affecting life on both land and sea.
However, it is important to note that these scenarios are not straightforward, and various factors would need to align for such an event to occur. There are many potential feedback mechanisms in Earth's climate system that could either amplify or dampen the effects of increased hydrogen sulfide production.
In the context of contemporary climate change, we are indeed witnessing warming oceans and increases in oceanic dead zones (areas of low oxygen that can support sulfur bacteria). However, whether this could lead to an extinction-level hydrogen sulfide release is still a matter of scientific debate. Current research suggests that while an increase in anoxic conditions and dead zones is cause for concern due to their direct impact on marine life, a Canfield Ocean event is not considered a high-probability outcome of current climate change trends.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_gun_hypothesis
Not all ice is made from water. Some ice is frozen methane. If you melt it, you'll release methane.
Atmospheric methane is good a trapping heat (aka greenhouse gas). That heat warms the atmosphere, which melts more ice, which includes methane ice, which in turn releases methane, that heats the atmosphere more.
In this way you have a self-reinforcing effect where before you know it you have an exponential release of methane/exponential temperature increase and an extinction event like the Permian–Triassic one.
Edit: the jumps kind of correspond to moments in time when the solar insolation was on its upswing and the periods when it temporarily slowed kind of correspond to periods when insolation was declining, I think however I'm exceeding my training a bit, perhaps an actual climate scientist could tell us more precisely what's going on.
The cycle is very irregular and I doubt we have good prediction models for it. However, the observations of the ocean currents line up very well with ocean surface temperature readings.
On it's own, the ENSO cycle would not cause an overall trend of warming. However, it is very capable of being the cause of the "bands in the data" that you noticed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93Southern_...
What provides those meals is a system built on top of topsoil, fresh water, fish, oil, pollinators, and atmospheric conditions of humidity, temperature, precipitation, etc. And the absence of pollution.
Topsoil is not dirt, it's an habitat for organisms that make soil fertile. It takes many years to regenerate 1 inch of topsoil. Agriculture consumes topsoil faster than it regenerates.
Fresh water is water with low saline content. Desalination does not work at scale, and if it did, it would still make food prices rise. Fresh water is only 2.5% of Earth's water. Rivers are being polluted, groundwater is being pumped faster than it is replenished. Rainwater is not enough to sustain agriculture. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjsThobgq7Q
Sustainable fishing requires harvesting only fish above reproductive age. Fisheries do not care about this. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trawling
Pollinators everywhere are dying due to habitat destruction and products used in agriculture.
And on top of that we are changing the composition of the atmosphere via pollution, causing it to trap more heat, and causing oceans to become acidic, which in turn causes climate to behave differently in ways that affect agriculture.
In short, it's an ecocide. We are in the middle of an extinction event: the Anthropocene extinction, an extinction event caused by humans. Animals above certain weight are dying and that is an excellent indicator that we are next in line.
Each human has a stomach which is a chemical reactor, and food is its fuel. And as more humans are added to the population the rate at which we process (destroy) the environment accelerates. We are already beyond the point of sustainability and heading towards a predictable collapse.
Putting a single-use plastic container into a recycle bin won't do shit for the environment. Our civilization is just a giant ant death circle following each other's pheromone trails until we collapse collectively.
Not much can be done other than downscale your lifestyle, avoid traveling, go zero waste, stop buying from ecocidal corporations. But this will only delay the inevitable: more environmental impact, and ultimately, global conflict.
Remove the 3 meals from people's tables, and you'll get conflict over the resources that are left. The strategic pieces in this conflict are already being placed on the board.
This is interesting to me, could you elaborate what the pieces are? I’m guessing natural resources like freshwater?
The NOAA 1/4° Daily Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) is a long term Climate Data Record that incorporates observations from different platforms (satellites, ships, buoys and Argo floats) into a regular global grid. The dataset is interpolated to fill gaps on the grid and create a spatially complete map of sea surface temperature. Satellite and ship observations are referenced to buoys to compensate for platform differences and sensor biases.
It feels like I am very literally living the life depicted in sci-fi novels of my youth. Equal parts wonderful and terrifying.
But wasn't that always the case?
War was always around the corner and nuclear missile threat amplified it.
Btw. it seems the war made russia change its stance and some official "scientific" commitee has decided, that climate warming comes simply from radiation inside earth that follows a natural pattern. So no need to not burn coal then. So the hope is, that china who does believe in human made climate change will push them to still reduce CO2 somewhat. Indeed strange times.
All sides showed remarkable restraint in actually following up on the threats. While the possibility of nuclear war was part of the backdrop, at least the impression was made that everybody tries to be as reasonable as possible to prevent it from happening.
Compare to climate change where people actively try to sabotage stuff like renewables build out (e.g. "In 2019, the state tried to further penalize solar users by implementing a law that levied fines against solar users." [0] which was struck down eventually - but still, people considered that a good enough idea to propose, successfully vote and implement that?!?) to stick it to The Man (or something).
[0] I don't care too much about the specifics, so not naming and shaming anybody, but the source is: https://todayshomeowner.com/solar/guides/states-that-outlaw-...
Coal has, and continues, to cause more deaths then nuclear ever has and produces radioactive ash while at it.
I think the risk of nuclear war is higher now, with more nations having more weapons, fewer treaties preventing profession, and an increasingly multipolar power dynamic in international affairs.
Nope and it isn't the case now. End of the world cults are a common feature of human societies, pretty much all of them have/had them. My personal guess is that egos are so big that people can't imagine a world after them so it's easier to say the world is going to end.
The difference with climate change is the "peaceful" analog is vanishing. Humanity has always been able to choose peace. But we may soon not be able to choose to live on a healthy planet.
I’m more inclined to closely watch geopolitical events unfold, as US hegemony becomes slowly unstable and potentially untenable.
If climate change were really really as dire as some say it is, we wouldn’t be half-assing our way via renewable energies which don’t have a power grid or power store nearly capable enough to handle a “fully electric future”
We’d be spending more money than the likes of other world powers on proven nuclear energy (unlike Germany who has decommissioned theirs in favor of coal)
I think I read the nuclear waste of nuclear power stations we have today could fit in a big Walmart? That’s an insane amount of energy density. That doesn’t include the potential for nuclear diamond batteries to reuse the spent fuel rods, or other upcoming technologies to reuse the waste.
Don’t get me wrong, we should look into truly renewable energy. But needing vast amounts of rare-earth minerals for solar panels and batteries from China, or nickel and cobalt from child-labor mines in the Congo doesn’t seem to line up with the ethos of “going green”
We should “go nuclear”
Yes, this is why people are worried. It is dire and we are half-assing our responses.
Wait until you see what millions of people displaced by rising sea levels are going to do to political and economical stability worldwide. That's not going to happen in a far distant future, that's within 30 years. Bangladesh for example is expected to lose 17% of its land by 2050, displacing millions. Miami-Dade county will be 60% under water by 2060 when current projections come to pass.
> If climate change were really really as dire as some say it is, we wouldn’t be half-assing our way via renewable energies which don’t have a power grid or power store nearly capable enough to handle a “fully electric future”
The realities of climate change and its dire consequences aren't some doomsayers internet theories. We're completely half-assing our response to it despite the scientific consensus on the brutal consequences of our doing.
> We should “go nuclear”
That ship has sailed at least 20 years ago. Starting now with average construction times of 10 years plus they would come too late to make a difference.
Renewables are cheaper to build and faster to construct so that's were the world is heading.
https://www.iea.org/news/renewable-power-on-course-to-shatte...
I think we need less moralism and fear of complex systems, and more hard-headed, engineering-led cost-benefit analysis.
Yes it is outside of our sphere of influence. It’s bad parenting to make kids worry about things outside of their control.
And before you criticize me, know that I’m a cloth diapering, organic food growing back-to-land hippy. I’m happy to compare our carbon footprints.
As a related experience, I picked up my son from a birthday party and the birthday consisted of a rented massive trailer with big screen TVs and 7-8 different video game consoles for couch coop gaming. All powered by a generator. Very cool and very frightening all at the same time.
Our planet needs strong leadership that dictates what can and cannot be done. Instead we have leaders making up solutions that are not solutions, but are presented as such.
I thought the major issue was the speed of change, but we really don't know what life is thing to do in response.
According to this article, during the Cambrian, the earth was 10C hotter than it is today.
https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2022/09/20/you-asked-dinos...
We're going to need to adapt, and things will be harder, but I believe it's totally doable.
The population could have been very happy and rich with around 1 billion people — less garbage, less pollution, less extinction of species, less monocultures and farms, more biodiversity, sustainable resources, and not as much pressure on ecosystems.
But we live on an exological credit card.
His data suggests that the rate of rise in ocean temperatures can not possibly be due to man made circumstances and is instead due to earth core leakage.
They're cherry-picking an arbitrary year for comparison over an arbitrary time range. There's many years you can select to draw similar bad comparisons. For example, select 2021 & 2015 and look at Feb 28 - March 5. Are you going to believe a sensationalist claim that "90% of SST rise between 2021 & 2015 arrived in 2 weeks"?
Hopefully not, because that's a bad comparison and ignores that temperature fluctuates up and down
https://slate.com/human-interest/2014/06/how-not-to-be-wrong...
