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0 pointsThomPete3y ago0 comments

I use the same one as you. I conjecture based on my ability to explain why I think x will happen or wont happen.

No amount of putting percentages on X changes X. It either happens or doesn't.

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kqr3y ago· 2 in thread

So if I asked you whether you found it more likely that you'll ride a helicopter tomorrow, or that a Democrat will be elected president in the next US presidential election, what would be your answer and why?

ThomPeteOP3y ago

I would say "I don't know" and I would be lying if I said anything else.

I can tell you I don't have any plans of going on a helicopter ride tomorrow. I can also tell you that I have no idea if the next president will be democrat.

What formula do you propose we use to calculate the probability?

kqr3y ago

And if I proposed a bet where you pay me $10 now and I pay you $40 if there's a Democrat president next election, you wouldn't take the bet because "you don't know?"

(This situation could be put in a less abstract way: there's a business opportunity that costs some money to realise but you only reap the benefit in the right political climate.)

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