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0 pointskqr3y ago0 comments

And if I proposed a bet where you pay me $10 now and I pay you $40 if there's a Democrat president next election, you wouldn't take the bet because "you don't know?"

(This situation could be put in a less abstract way: there's a business opportunity that costs some money to realise but you only reap the benefit in the right political climate.)

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ThomPete3y ago· 2 in thread

I might take the bet but I would just be guessing or I might work towards trying to find a solution to turn the guess into an explanation.

At no time does probability help me with figuring out what the outcome is.

I can either explain what will happen or I can't. There is no 50/50. I just don't have the correct explanation i.e. an explanation that is hard to vary.

kqrOP3y ago

Can I interpret your taking the bet as an admission that it's a bet that comes with a positive expectation? (In the sense that if you took similar bets very many times, you would end up with an almost sure profit.)

ThomPete3y ago

No. Just like i dont go to the casino expecting to win.

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