Ask HN: Which startups are thriving in the downturn?

Knowing people that make under 60k a year, and how harder their lives got and how hard it is to pay back loans and other obligations they where ulitmately strong armed into taking to improve their position. Not to mention how alot of western nations have a large majority of people are pay check to pay check regardless of their tax bracket.

Working class is a good litmus of how the economy is doing vs S&P because speculation can ultimately make it look like everything is fine until it isn't

>Inflation was an issue for a while, but a lot of that seemed to be driven more by temporary supply constraints in certain sectors than any actual currency devaluation, and inflation already seems to be dying down anyway.

Man, this attitude is terrible. My life and all of my colleagues lives have been completely flipped upside down by this inflation. This comment just donwplaying it as a non-issue made me really angry. How out of touch are you? I can barely afford groceries anymore. And not the organic kind - the bottom basement price chopped discount kind.

I feel like everyone is freaking out because we went from almost unprecedentedly high tech valuations in 2021 back to ~historical norms today, which feels bad. Example: For all of the years that I was working in SaaS between 2008 - Covid, I assumed that I should plan for a ~10x revenue multiple in the optimistic case.

If you, like most people on hn, are in tech then you are highly insulated from the impact of a recession/downturn/whatever you want to call it.

You likely make significantly more than the nation average household and your job security and prospects are likely significantly higher.

I think the doom and gloom is a bit overblown too but who knows if tomorrow my company says xyz isnt looking good. Time for layoffs.

I think many of the impacts to the economy from inflation and interest rate increases take time before we see the full picture.

For example, the housing market seemed to still be hot even with increased rates, but that is because of the delay from sales to closings. Last month started showing decreases in sales in areas that were previously on fire. And anecdotally, listings in my area that would have sold in 1 day above the listed price which are currently still on market with multiple price cuts.

The other big factor that is lingering are the student loan repayments which have been deferred for now. That is a huge chunk of monthly expense if/when they are reinstated which will have an impact on discretionary spending, etc.

Regular people are concerned about affording basic necessities. Supply chains are absolutely fucked. The company I work for is so effected that the folks in logistics are talking to ship captains and port managers, and we’re pretty well insulated from most of the inflation. My colleagues and I are hurt more by inflation than my company is. This inflation is wild though. Large companies are posting obscene profits while fighting labor on every front, raising prices massively (just got back the store and some items are up 300% from last month), and have taken full advantage of government subsidies. Consumers are well and truly tapped out, look at target posting a massive decline. Target’s performance is a bellwether of middle class conditions and its bleak. Walmart is also reporting a decline. Companies should have been preparing for this 6-12-36 months ago, the signs were there. Instead short-term-ism won out again in board rooms and talking heads look like a surprised pikachu trying to talk around the problems effecting consumers and the obvious solutions. People need affordable: food, housing, transportation, and healthcare. The rampant and excessive profiteering in these industries has dug a huge hole that is going to be exceptionally painful to dig out of because so many people have had their lives wasted on truly frivolous endeavors. I expect the beatings to continue until morale approves or the proletariat finds their voice. All these people you hear fear mongering are the soundtrack to the game of musical chairs playing in the economy.

> We're at extremely low unemployment

Back in 2018/2019, when I got curious and looked at what signals people look at for recessions, too low unemployment was one of them.

The real "reason" for this "recession" is all those stupid articles about the "great resignation". I knew as soon as those appeared the billionaire ruling class would rather cut off their own arms than allow the notion of workers getting access to some of the wealth they create. Thus: "Panic! Recession! Work harder!"

> What exactly is everyone so scared about that we all seem to think the economy is headed for a major recession?

All the tech layoffs and hiring freezes that are happening. Whats the explanation for it if everything is fine and dandy.

Inflation is still a huge issue. The last numbers we got indicated 8% inflation. The fed target is 2%. That means that not only are people seeing huge decreases in buying power, but the fed is going to have to continue putting the hurt on the economy in order to get things back under control.

I think it’s easy to miss some of the very real pain lower income folks are experiencing right now if you’re not in their bracket. Inflation causes excess capital to flow into assets, which the poor don’t have and HN commenters do.

The inflation issue is absolutely not solved. A single month from 9.1 -> 8.6 is FAR too soon for victory. I suspect the recent rally in the market comes from the assumption that the Fed will back off and that we have indeed already experienced peak inflation.

CPI of 8.6 is still unacceptable and my guess is we’re gonna see more rate hikes and QT than the markets expect. That’ll mean mortgage rates go up, companies will have more difficulty servicing debt…etc

We’re not in the clear quite yet!

I think the gloom sentiment is also no good. Life is bountiful and joyful.

But I wouldn't build my case on the provided numbers. Inflation numbers, unemployment numbers are not yesterday's numbers, as in they are not derived the same way. They mean exactly what they intended to mean, for managing expectations in the present.

Inflation is still at 8.5% it is still an issue. Rates on 30 year conventional mortgages are extremely high compared to just a year ago.

Food and energy costs which are not considered in mainline inflation figures are still very high.

> and inflation already seems to be dying down anyway.

I̶ ̶d̶o̶n̶'̶t̶ ̶k̶n̶o̶w̶ ̶i̶f̶ ̶I̶'̶m̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶t̶ ̶o̶p̶t̶i̶m̶i̶s̶t̶i̶c̶.̶ ̶I̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶n̶k̶ ̶i̶n̶f̶l̶a̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶s̶t̶i̶l̶l̶ ̶8̶.̶5̶%̶ ̶m̶o̶n̶t̶h̶-̶t̶o̶-̶m̶o̶n̶t̶h̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶o̶n̶l̶y̶ ̶d̶o̶w̶n̶ ̶0̶.̶6̶%̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶p̶r̶e̶v̶i̶o̶u̶s̶ ̶m̶o̶n̶t̶h̶.̶ ̶W̶e̶'̶d̶ ̶n̶e̶e̶d̶ ̶s̶e̶v̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶m̶o̶n̶t̶h̶s̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶d̶r̶o̶p̶s̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶c̶l̶u̶d̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶t̶ ̶i̶n̶f̶l̶a̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶i̶s̶ ̶e̶a̶s̶i̶n̶g̶.̶ ̶I̶ ̶p̶e̶r̶s̶o̶n̶a̶l̶l̶y̶ ̶d̶o̶n̶'̶t̶ ̶s̶e̶e̶ ̶a̶n̶y̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶c̶e̶ ̶d̶r̶o̶p̶s̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶n̶g̶s̶ ̶I̶ ̶a̶c̶t̶u̶a̶l̶l̶y̶ ̶u̶s̶e̶ ̶-̶ ̶f̶o̶o̶d̶,̶ ̶g̶a̶s̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶h̶o̶u̶s̶i̶n̶g̶.̶ ̶A̶l̶l̶ ̶r̶e̶m̶a̶i̶n̶ ̶s̶i̶g̶n̶i̶f̶i̶c̶a̶n̶t̶l̶y̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶v̶a̶t̶e̶d̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶c̶o̶m̶p̶a̶r̶i̶s̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶o̶ ̶a̶ ̶y̶e̶a̶r̶ ̶a̶g̶o̶.̶

I think you know the answer:

> The recent interest rate hikes also didn't seem to have nearly as much impact on the markets as everyone feared they would.

Markets aren’t rational

Because what are we working on?

Amazon is running out of people willing to work in its warehouses; gig work gets old fast.

Low unemployment is unsustainable if it’s unfulfilling errand running.

There’s little net new invention going on in entrenched big tech; Bezos and co are riding high on mathematical inference by accountants; it’s a math scam being forced upon people who can’t “see” how he’s not really invented anything new; distributed computing under unified api; wow.

Capturing eyeballs is easy when the masses are oblivious; the biological quirk religion stumbled upon is being intentionally manipulated.

Except for nation state prestige, there’s little net new coming out of all these tech companies; writing apps and todo lists? Come on. Video games? 40+ years old. Better chat bots? Meh.

Story mode still rules; we’re iterating on the childhood nostalgia of 70-80s kids who also happen to be the early tech boom crowd; shock. Where is the net new? We’re getting faster with higher resolution.

Propping up the dollar in lock step with history. Which is why I believe all the pipe dreams about singularity and rockets to nowhere will never happen; kids growing up with these things will see sooner than the elders who were mesmerized by this stuff that it’s all “nuclear powered rocket cars” again.

Generational churn is what’s creating the rocky situation politically. Society will stabilize on a “new normal” as more of the 50+ crowd dies off. And the normal the 20-30s crowd wants is progressive; they’ve not lost their desire for political change as they age into their 30s like prior generations did as inequality still controls their life; prior generations lost their progressiveness as they bought houses and had families; something even 30 year olds cannot do; the elders have monopolized having a good life. The young want to be represented by like minded people and are just waiting out the resistance.

80% of last gens Fortune 500 are gone. Electoral turnovers flush corruption and open up economic gains for public: https://www.nber.org/papers/w29766

Same will happen as the elders with monopoly on politics die. Chip companies aren’t going anywhere, but HN is a filter bubble; there’s little dedication to these stupid software companies among the young; see FB use tanking among teens. No one I know under 40 cares about Metas verse, but it was on Today the other day! They’re gaming the clueless. The veil is pierced and frankly software as an industry deserves it; most is copy-paste work while everyone else grows their potatoes.

> What exactly is everyone so scared about that we all seem to think the economy is headed for a major recession?

The economy seems to be doing well in 2019 dollars. However you have to take account that almost 2x more money have been printed since then. And if you divide all our numbers by 2, we are already in an economic disaster.

Is this similar to Netlify? This has changed everything for me when it comes to deploying mini test sites or tools. No more nginx wrangling just to get a script available online.

Sort of. We do a lot on the graph AI + graph viz as powertools behind investigative teams here, and behind the scenes, it's not such a clean story. Some real growers, but most we've seen hit a surprisingly low ceiling:

- There just isn't that much KYC-worthy commercial+retail transaction volume, and a lot that does exist is from just a handful of big exchanges etc. So there is some revenue here, but not enough for standalone co's at current ecosystem's level. The "real" KYC play is still largely investors speculating on a future years from now and propping these co's up.

- There was a lot of crypto startups needing their smart contracts vetted. Still some $ overhand from last 2-3 years where these are still happening. A bunch of crypto companies cratered, and we'll probably keep seeing that, so uncomfortable inbetween period for these auditors too.

- Two big areas growing are (a) gov are getting more into chasing this stuff down and (b) banks are warming up to crypto offerings. The former is real revenue for teams who know how to work with tricky gov entities, and the latter is POC $. I'm seeing some compliance stuff happening (similar to how Stripe does taxes for you know, imagine someone doing KYC for you accepting ETH), but again, tiny market that's really a speculation for who-knows-when.

It's pretty "easy" to hustle $Xm in services contracts, but big recurring revenue is not so clear cut due to the market.

I don’t know about much about the space but my first impression is the initial pitch is confusing.

Fight NFT Fraud sounds like a service for company buying/selling NFTs, and needs to stop attacks on their system and is actually slightly vague.

Seems like people can check if a specific NFT is stolen or improperly minted?

Lead with that. CarFax for NFT (but even more important)

Is that NFT Stolen? Check now.

Then after the submission box can go into more detail.

Fanduel is hiring like crazy right now.

They have a lot of cash, but SBF theoretically could close shop and cash out if he feels the amount of money he will be able to donate will be down for the longterm. The entire point of FTX, ultimately, is to take money from crypto traders and put it into Effective Altruism charities.

In this context, do you mean SaaS for small and medium businesses? Or do you mean small and medium (sized) SaaS companies? Or is SMB in this context some other acronym I’m not thinking of?

Yes the SMB space, and the MSP vendor space (aka "The Channel"), that sell through to SMBs, seem to have not missed a beat.

I work in a healthcare startup too and can confirm that the interest in investing in innovative tech in this industry is only going up.

Can confirm, healthcare SaaS doing well.

This is downvoted but there is a niche of companies that thrive under federal money from various agencies grants and contracts, and these didn't really go down much. I would disagree with the "getting rich" as they have a mandate to serve whatever mission from the agency that gave them money.

Ah man, that's what every CEO says.