Given how far behind it is on electrification and their legacy cost structure, which includes massive pension liabilities and an outmoded dealership network, I have grave doubts about GM's ability to survive their next bankruptcy.
They could have been the market leader, with a 10 year head start on everyone else.
It's been a while since I read the book ("The Innovator's Dilemma—a classic!), but IIRC, Christensen disruptions are characterized by:
- worse performance, but...
- better reliability and other characteristics, thus requiring...
- new markets to be developed that can use the technology, resulting in...
- steady improvement, leading to...
- cannibalizing the old technology "from below" as the new technology's performance becomes good enough to take over the old market, resulting in...
- the old sellers fleeing "up market" to higher margin, higher demand customers, ironically creating some of their best sales years, but...
- the disruptive technology marches on, continuing to erode the old technology's performance advantage, until finally...
- the old technology disappears and the old sellers have nothing to sell, and...
- the old sellers die.
The old sellers have trouble embracing the new technology because of the complex existing relationships with middle management, suppliers, and customers. It's not blindness—it's a major cultural upheaval, and it's almost impossible to overcome.
Electric drive trains (mainly engines + batteries + chargers) appear to fit the definition of a disruptive technology perfectly. I think companies like GM and Toyota are in trouble.
We hear this since Tesla promissed EVs for the masses. I don't see pure EVs taking over anytime soon. Not until they reach parity of charging station with petrol station. And this will happen maybe, after the grid is improved. The issue is that electrical energy prices have started to rise and they will rise further when atomic and coal plants are decomisioned (fewer production) which will also slow the adoption of EVs.
> Given how far behind it is on electrification and their legacy cost structure, which includes massive pension liabilities and an outmoded dealership network, I have grave doubts about GM's ability to survive their next bankruptcy.
Well, some industries are strategical and I do not see the military industrial complex relying on vehicles from overseas.
One thing to remember is that all ICE cars need a gas station but not all EVs need a public charging station. I only use a charging station for long road trips the rest of my charging is done at home.
Though, at this point I have about 10 months left on my Bolt lease and if it wasn’t for supply issues on new cars and not knowing what to do next I would probably turn it in early. Due to working from home pre-Covid and not much changing during, I haven’t even put 4,000 miles on it after 26 months. It makes almost no sense to have a car, except kids.
