I'm not sure how it's gone from declining in Jan to super exponential in Mar/April?
There's not a lot of data yet on that variant's transmissibility and lethality but it has already been detected in the UK.
Thus far it doesn't seem to be as dangerous as the Brazilian P1 variant, but could be trouble just the same.
Speculation at this point to be honest.
Is this a thing that's known to have occurred in other viruses? It seems rather unlikely compared to the chance that it came from someone asymptomatic or someone who skipped over the border controls via boat or something like that.
I'd be careful speculating over demographics. There's been a wave of violence against Asian (largely Chinese, Japanese and Korean) people in the US, believed to be caused at least in part by our former president accusing China of accidentally releasing the virus. I wouldn't want some populist to latch on to this theory and start blaming Indian people for variants.
Multiple trails of evidence pointing to it's emergence in India, and right now the UK is not restricting travel from India so the most likely scenario is that it arrived in the UK from someone who traveled to India or another country where that strain is spreading.
Also when we say "Medical systems collapsing" then we should be specific. Because there are 700+ districts and there is a different story everywhere.
My father and mother went to the community clinic at a walking distance from my house and there was no queue at all. No wait. Now on 1st of May, it is my and my wife's turn.
- The majority of cases come from Maharshtra: 670388, UP:191457, Karnataka:133543, Chattisgargh:128019, Kerala:93683,Delhi:74941 (for a single city state these numbers are high) - which are non-election states. [Source]: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103458/india- novel-coronavirus-covid-19-cases-by-state/
- Poor vaccination drive: Nothing can be father from the truth. India is one of the countries which has superb last mile vaccine delivery capability and connectivity till remote villages. Currently vaccination for 45+ age group is being rolled out successfully (with Covishield and Covaxin both). If anything there was lot of anti-vaxx created by media and politically vested interests which resulted in vaccine hesitancy. Now, the same voices are crying hoarse why we cannot vaccinate 1.3 billion people in a single month?
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Kerala_Legislative_Assemb...
It is true that India has done a fantastic job at producing and distributing vaccines. The problem is that the Indian population is absolutely vast, so the fraction of the population that has been successfully inoculated so far is disappointingly small. There is hope that continued robust progress with vaccination could turn the situation around but that is likely to take several more months.
[0] e.g. https://youtu.be/ZVOV3sU8Ays