Do you have a strong prediction for the future with a date and count? I'm not sure what qualifies as "strict", and I'm only interested in counting deaths.
The outbreak is growing exponentially at this point, and basic epidemiological models say that it will continue to do so until a significant fraction of the population becomes infected. COVID-19 is estimated to have an R_0 of around 2.4, meaning that if nothing is done to lower transmission, the epidemic will only begin to recede once approximately 1-1/2.4 = 0.58 (58%) of the population is infected.
The current doubling time for the epidemic is 3 days in the US, meaning that the US will reach the saturation level of ~58% of the population infected sometime this May.
In the face of the cold logic of exponential growth in epidemiology, you can't try to reassure people by pointing to the current numbers of infections. You have to look at R_0 (~2.4), the level of preexisting immunity (0%), and the mortality rate (~1%), and act accordingly. I don't want to see 2 million Americans dead by the end of May. Pointing out that only a few hundred have died so far and asking me to ignore basic epidemiology doesn't reassure me.
Are you predicting 2 million Americans dead from COVID-19 by the end of May?
If you feel confident in your predictions, make a strong claim. If you're less confident, put some error margins around your claim. If you need to put some caveats (i.e. "strict"), be specific. If you're uncertain, it would be more intellectually honest if you indicated that when you post.
You're going around suggesting that maybe we can ignore basic epidemiology. There is a strong push right now in the United States to play down the epidemic and get people back to work.
The best information available right now indicates an R_0 of between 2 and 3. With 0% preexisting immunity, that means that around 60% of the population will be infected, unless strict social distancing measures are implemented. With the observed doubling time of about 3 days, the epidemic will burn through the population by early May. The mortality rate is around 1%, based on the available information, meaning that about 2 million Americans will die.
This can be averted, but not by pretending that epidemiology is potentially all wrong. It can be averted by things like the shelter-in-place orders made by certain governors.
