You responded to DanBC's comment, which extrapolated the exponential by a few weeks, by suggesting that he might be wrong and that somehow a logistic curve will set in.

I responded to you by pointing out that the only things that will break exponential growth are herd immunity or strict social distancing measures.

> I'm currently much more concerned about what will happen economically and politically because of this thing.

That's exactly what I suspected. I think your line of thinking, which is being pushed by a lot of people now (beginning with the President of the United States) is dangerous. You're asking us to roll the dice and hope that either the laws of epidemiology will cease to hold, or that the mortality will turn out to be much lower than is currently estimated.

The available information indicates that the death toll in the US from business as usual will be around 2 million people by early summer. That merits a strenuous response, even if it does damage the economy.

> There are real and awful consequences to all of this panic that have nothing to do with dying from the virus.

We're at the beginning of a pandemic, with 0% immunity, 60% of the population expected to become infected within several weeks, and around a 1% mortality rate. A bit of panic is justified. Better than panic, however, are strong measures implemented quickly. Luckily some states have taken those measures now.

> So you get to keep doing your fear mongering predictions of 2 million deaths, and then later you get to say, "well yeah, that didn't happen because we sheltered in place".

You simply can't accept the number of 2 million deaths because it's outside of your experience. It is what epidemiology predicts will happen without measures like sheltering in place. How do you think we'll avoid 2 million deaths otherwise? This virus is going to infect ~60% of the population in short order if left unchecked. Do you think the virions will suddenly decide that they don't feel like infecting anyone else?

I really do hope that I get to say in the end that "that didn't happen because we sheltered in place." That's what people are already able to say in China, because they sheltered in place and stopped the epidemic.

You're asking us to roll the dice and hope that the best information about the R_0 and mortality rate of the virus is incorrect. I'm looking at what happened in Northern Italy, where the hospital system was overwhelmed in two weeks, and I'm not willing to do that.