this is much riskier than just holding. stock prices are about expectations, not necessarily reality. for all we know, everything might spike back up to January 2020 prices the second there's an inflection point in the new infection rate, and you could miss your chance to buy back in.

Right. This is a "hold the line" situation. Unfortunately, not one aspect of American society suggests that we're going to have each other's backs as a break becomes more and more possible. Therefore, it may be better to assume that it's every man for himself, and grab what you can while the getting's good.

This is why you have a robust social safety net. Not because the liberals and hippies think lazy people are entitled to free stuff; because everything - everything - is built on faith that the bottom won't ruin "you," specifically.

Or hold and hedge by buying UVXY et al

That doesn't include dividends paid out by the companies in the NIKKEI.

You could take the absolute worst case scenario if you want, I guess, but every other peak in the history of world markets has come back faster than that... Besides, that's not even fair. Why are you assuming the parent is talking about holding stocks bought at the peak? The kind of people that hold their stocks for years tend to be the kind of people who don't buy at a peak. Long-termers tend to be more of the Buffett persuasion; he has said that he wouldn't care if the market completely closed for 10 years, because he buys businesses that grow in good times and bad, and he collects dividends in good times and bad. All the while the employees of the companies are spending their efforts in making his stock more valuable.

A few typically means 2. Sure you can cherry pick one stock that didn't recover from 1989, but on average the market as a whole always recovers. Yes, there are outliers with some individual stocks.

Their population demographics are different from ours.

We will continue to provide workers and consumers over the coming decades - economy-wide demand will return once the crononavirus threat subsides.

Isn’t that misleading given the price of the Yen?

The textbook definition of a recession may mean that prices will continue to fall until the recession ends -- in fact, as soon as prices rise it ends the recession. But by that definition, the "great recession" ended in the USA in June 2009.

I'm guessing the above poster meant something more like "period of society-wide economic hardship" by recession. By that more colloquial definition, you might say the great recession lasted through 2014. The stock price plummet, however, was largely finished for most of that period of hardship.

I have no crystal ball; I can't tell you where we are going to be. But if the above poster meant "We're past the plummet, all that's left is the slow climb back to normalcy" then their comment makes more sense.

First, there is always the possibility that I could be wrong. The markets could hover around these levels and fall no further. Second, I may not know when to buy back in. Do I back in after they have fallen 10%? How about 20%? Should I wait till 25%? What if it goes down another 3% and then starts to head backup.. and then back down again above these levels before falling another 30%?

What you are suggesting is market timing. I am not very good at it, and I don't think most people are. You not only have to know when to sell, but you have to know when to buy back in. You have to get it right twice.

Perhaps. A 30% spy drop is already in predicting recession territory (https://www.investopedia.com/a-history-of-bear-markets-45826...). Even if I was 100% confident there would be a recession, it's still not clear the markets are not undervalued at this point.

That's true but what's also true is that we found out in 2008 that there is much more correlation between asset classes than you might think.