Italy has 8,500 who are still sick. And yet, reports are that their medical system (which is good) is completely overwhelmed, to the point where treatable elderly are not even diagnosed [1].
Yet the numbers indicate they have about 3 hospital beds per 1000, or 186,000 beds, which are normally 80% full. So that means, 37,000 beds available.
So, 8,500 cases (not all of whom are in the hospital) should not overwhelm 37,000 beds, right?
Perhaps the number of _doctors and nurses_ are overwhelmed? Anybody know where to get reliable stats on that?
Anybody see what I'm missing? Or do you think I've gotten incorrect info?
I'm trying to arrive at a rational prediction of how bad things could be in the US, and how soon.
[1] https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/123714289107769753...
In my country we have ~12 000 hospital beds total, but only ~400 intensive care beds. Reportedly our capacity for immediately stretching that number is that we can muster ~1 200 intensive care beds. If the need goes beyond that (and everyone is seriously hoping it will not) then we will be overwhelmed like Italy.
37k beds are available across the entire country. However, the outbreaks are currently relatively concentrated. Some areas might still have capacity while others are overflowing.
As a whole, USA is around 11.5 days behind Italy. (some others say 14 days)
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkJHandley/status/1237144386569...
But this is not so simple to translate, because of the very different sizes between USA and Italy (population, geography, and pop density), and the resources available (if the federal gov finally reacts).
So, while that chart counts the cases per country, maybe the best thing here would be to consider the evolution in a single state, instead of the whole country.
It’s either the idea that this is a generally mild virus with some random severe cases and basically we’re all already infected, or this is going to be an endless, multi year spread and they’re accounting for that.
It's partly the latter, but it's mostly just the result of exponential growth. The number of confirmed cases doubles every ~5 days, if that continues there are over a billion infections in 10 weeks. Whether it plays out that way or not depends on our containment efforts.
2. Most of Italy's cases are in a part of it. They are not evenly distributed among the country. Hospital beds, on the other hand, are.
3. Most of those beds are not ICU beds. If you have COVID-19, and you're sick enough to need to go to the hospital, you need to go to an ICU bed.
The original is in German, but I can't say what it means exactly. They are currently at 0.0000175%.
I think it's more a warning that an "estimate".
With a little luck there’s a still larger group of asymptotic infections, because otherwise we are going to have to put up with large numbers of ICU patients for a long time.
Also, the flu is currently active in europe, which also filled up some of the beds already.
Preparing a country for this potential outcome is a good thing. If it didn't end up at 60-70%, it will be in part because of a very strong response.
The curve is still very much bent when we look at how early this started in the country and it will continue to be flatter than in any place not putting distancing and testing in place on time
"South Korea on Wednesday reported 242 additional coronavirus cases, almost double the number of new cases reported on Tuesday, as the emergence of a new outbreak in Seoul worries officials." from [1]
[1] https://www.ft.com/content/986b533f-1d3e-3920-ae80-da8dcd8af...
Already there... At least in Germany.
It's possible, but probably not ethical.
Either way though even if it turns out to be a too high a prediction at least she speaks plainly and I guess electing a physicist who understands how these dynamics can work was a good idea.
I've read several epidemiologists that said stuff among the lines that, while the objective is not to generate panic, leaders should not minimize the scale of this outbreak, and the consequences of downplaying it are severe. When politicians say stuff like "this is just another flu", then lots of people continue their lives as usual, and thus, it gets almost impossible to slow down the propagation.
Maybe it's OK to throw those numbers, as a wake up call for society. If the government ordered a full lock-down, many people that still think "it's just a flu" would get mad... but if she first announces this, then maybe the rest of society would be more open to accept the consequences of a lock-down. In the end, it's politics.
China was good at it because they really enforce drastic measures. People must stay at home, everybody outside wears a mask (they're made in China...), streets, transport & supermarkets are disinfected daily, people who leave hospital have even clothes disinfected etc.
Nothing like this happens in EU or USA.
He also constantly warned to flatten the curve, spreading infection time as long as possible - preferably over multiple years...
For those speaking german - there is a daily podcast update from Prof. Drosten https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLkKON9te6p3OpxqDskVsx...
*Head of the Institute for Virology at the Charité
Reminds me of a tweet I read today:
https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/123742407086352384...
Even if this outbreak is contained, either because of social policies or seasonal change, governments should prepare for a new wave next year (and the southern hemisphere should be preparing for a hit in a few weeks/months).
The math is incredibly simple. The idea is that right now you have an estimated transmission rate of 3 people infected by one person. (Of course this number has high uncertainties and can be changed by better isolating patients, but let's assume it's roughly correct.) If you want to stop the transmission this needs to go below one. The major thing that can stop transmission is immunity from patients that already had the disease (assuming, which is probably true, that most patients won't get infected twice, even though it may happen in rare cases).
So getting from 3 to 1 means 2/3 of the population need to be immune.
Postponing parliamentary proceedings is also a possibility, Merkel said."
wtf. This is what they are planning to do about it?
Neighbour states such as Austria are closing universities while in Germany they are still playing football matches in arenas with 50.000 people (yesterday).
I hate the "it's a dynamic situation" wording but yes, days matter here. Also yesterday, NRW, one of the most affected states put out the official recommendation to cancel major events with more than 1000 persons. Austria closed some universities at this point but many are scheduled to close next Monday.
https://mobile.twitter.com/henrikenderlein/status/1236748772...
(Several plots in the thread)
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-19-coronavirus-quaran...
