The estimate is from Prof. Drosten of the Charité in Berlin, a highly regarded virologe. His lab developed the first diagnostic corona test. Before that they also developed the tests for SARS, Zika and MERS.
Meaning that they are quoting from steady states in a model that uses differential equations. I am saying that the news article is misquoting the science. Merkel didn't make a prediction, she made a comment about epidemiology.
