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0 pointslowpro9y ago0 comments

This isn't necessarily true. The US dollar is actually increasing in value as people want their money to be safe. If Trump does bring back American jobs, meaning less jobs in Asia, the dollar buy will continue, depressing Asia and strengthening the US for now.

But you're right, the OP definitely needs to tread lightly with property and the contracts. The devil is always in the details.

0 comments

threeseed9y ago

The unemployment rate in the US is 4.9% which is basically full employment.

Now sure there are a number of people who don't report and those who wish to work more. But I don't think it's going to be easy to get those people back into work. Most are either in industries that are disappearing due to automation. Or they lack the skills/training to re-educate themselves.

And without tariffs (which will impact exports) there is little chance of US being all that competitive in most industries that compete with Asia (I assume you actually mean China).

bb6119y ago

Unemployment is only 4.9% because the participation rate dropped 3% points in the last 10 years: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

That's close to 10 million people who have stopped looking for jobs who we would otherwise expect to have them.

berdario9y ago

But the participation rate can float for a few different reasons

http://qz.com/286213/the-chart-obama-haters-love-most-and-th...

(clickbaity headline, but the contents seem sound)

krakensden9y ago

Baby Boomers should be leaving the labor market though.

1 more reply

FrancoDiaz9y ago

4.9% isn't even close to being the real unemployment rate.

StevePerkins9y ago

Nor does it reflect the stagnant/decreasing income of the jobs that people DO have.

1 more reply

5511999y ago

You want to look into participation rate. Compare participation and unemployment rate over time and it's clear '4.9%' is pure fallacy.

bigboris9y ago

Roughly 100 million people in the US are out of work or no longer looking for work. That's approx a third of the population. "4.9% is basically full employment" is a terribly naive statement. The trend clearly shows things getting worse, not better.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=4CRu

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse

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threeseed9y ago

The unemployment rate in the US is 4.9% which is basically full employment.

And without tariffs (which will impact exports) there is little chance of US being all that competitive in most industries that compete with Asia (I assume you actually mean China).

bb6119y ago

Unemployment is only 4.9% because the participation rate dropped 3% points in the last 10 years: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

That's close to 10 million people who have stopped looking for jobs who we would otherwise expect to have them.

berdario9y ago

But the participation rate can float for a few different reasons

http://qz.com/286213/the-chart-obama-haters-love-most-and-th...

(clickbaity headline, but the contents seem sound)

krakensden9y ago

Baby Boomers should be leaving the labor market though.

1 more reply

FrancoDiaz9y ago

4.9% isn't even close to being the real unemployment rate.

StevePerkins9y ago

Nor does it reflect the stagnant/decreasing income of the jobs that people DO have.

1 more reply

5511999y ago

You want to look into participation rate. Compare participation and unemployment rate over time and it's clear '4.9%' is pure fallacy.

bigboris9y ago

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=4CRu

j / k navigate · click thread line to collapse