Well! I take back what I said. Obviously "making a bunch of money playing poker" qualifies one as an expert in rapidly assigning probabilities of success to ventures undertaken in an increasingly complex world where the law of unintended consequences seems to be trumping everything else.
>> and his current startup has obvious money making potential
And is worth $0. Contrasted with, say, Google ... which until year 3 had no clue as to what their business model would be and therefore had, using your logic, no "obvious money making potential" ... but is now worth ... like, a lot - or so I hear.
If ideas are a dime a dozen then "potential" must be the stuff they use for shipping filler to make sure the ideas don't get damaged during transport.
In other words, he is no more proven than the people whose startups he belittles ...
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