> if I'm looking for someone to launch my satellite If you're looking for someone to launch a satellite, then you have good ideas about how much you have to spend, your willingness to accept risk, and the services you desire. Depending on how you feel about these and other factors, your decision might not be as straightforward as you are portraying here.

You're focusing on launching a satellite today. Those commenters are looking at satellite launches across the next decade, as ULA reliability doesn't change and SpaceX reliability grows (in theory).