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0 pointsryanx43511y ago0 comments

I know. sorry, I probably wasn't clear: it doesn't matter if he takes another bet or not, what matters is that he wishes that he would have had more restrictive requirements for who is able to accept his bet.

the logic being that, the more restrictive requirements, the less people who meet them, which means less probability that someone would take his bet, which implies that he never really wanted anyone to take the bet in the first place.

the subtext is that sam is not as confident in his position as he would like you to believe.

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6d0debc07111y ago· 1 in thread

If I understand correctly, his original offer was just to take one bet?

'This bet is open to the first VC who would like to take it' http://blog.samaltman.com/bubble-talk

Any bets taken beyond that would be a relaxation of the 'you weren't here in time' criteria which would have excluded all other gamblers.

ryanx435OP11y ago

trye, but the importance of the two criteria aren't weighted the same.

plus he isn't doubling down on the same bet: he's changing the new bet to be more in his favor, so the additional 100,000 is actually worth less than the original 100,000. (not monetary value, but rather the money's value as representation of the strength of his belief that the bubble won't pop before 2020).

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