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0 pointsdougabug11y ago0 comments

Globally private car ownership is soaring, especially in countries such as China where public modes of transportation have long been dominant. Self driving cars will be great, I can't wait to own one, but I disagree that renting something that I use on a daily basis will be clearly cheaper than owning. Short term rents for similar quality are generally more costly than purchases or long term leases. Renting furniture and appliances is usually something poor people do in spite of it being more expensive in the long run, because as Michael Caine said, "Poor people can't afford good deals." One thing that's true is that people are getting poorer in America. Maybe that will force many of them into higher cost rentals. But I don't see the people on the waiting list for Teslas deciding that don't want one. A self driving Tesla makes it more desirable, not less. Cars are one of the major ways people express their sense of aesthetics and status. People don't have to buy Apple iPhones or Burberry clothes, but they do. The most iconic brands deliver the highest profits.

Rental cars carry costs that I don't have with my own vehicle: frequent transactions, additional liability issues, wasted mileage driven between fares, uncertain transit times, daily cleaning and inspection for damage, commercial licensing and insurance, middle men, management, marketing, accounting, additional taxes, regulations, and covenants. If I leave something important in my car, it's still there the next day. I don't have to worry about vomit in the backseat. I don't face a transaction cost and a delay (or the uncertainty of a no show) to go to work, to drive home, to hop in the car and go to the mall, or grab a bite. I can leave things in my car. I have less exposure to pathogens and pests from surfaces in revolving contact with thousands of strangers from all over the world, lower probability of exposure to cold and flu viruses, fewer vectors for bedbugs to travel into my home.

I can't see rent seekers (esp short term ones) being so far under my costs that after adding their markup, it will be particularly cheaper for me. The 5 year TCO for a Prius (staple of the ridesharing industry) according to Edmunds is a little over $18 a day at 41 miles per day, 44 cents/mile inclusive of insurance, gas, maintenance, etc. The average fare mile on the Peninsula for a cab is $3. I don't see ridesharing companies finding an order of magnitude in efficiencies and still delivering any kind meaningful profit.

Maybe private toilets will seem quaint and ostentatious, and we'll be soon freed from the tyranny of private bathrooms by happier times of public lavatories.

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gojomo11y ago

You've convinced me that germ-phobic suburbanites will resist pay-per-ride services.

For city-dwellers, it's different, and the Edmunds TCO leaves out a lot. We pay $hundreds more per month for housing with parking. Then, we pay to find parking near our destinations in extra drive-time, money, and walk-time. And we ride for far fewer than the assumed 41 miles a day, 15K miles a year – so the fixed costs of car ownership are amortized over fewer miles.

That makes the per-mile costs of rideservices already roughly competitive or outright superior for many city-dwellers. That's especially true for the non-poor, who face a higher lost-compensation opportunity costs for every minute spent driving/refueling/parking/walking.

That's also before app-assisted multi-rider pooling, or automated-driving. Those could more-than-halve rideservice costs again.

dougabugOP11y ago

My self driving car will drop me off right at my destination, park itself, drive itself, refuel itself (at the lowest cost), pick up my dry cleaning while I'm busy, and pick me up again, so no lost opportunity cost there. I have a garage, and I'm not hurting for living space so no need to convert it (which would also raise my property taxes). No labor cost to handle all the micro transfers of responsibility/possession. No complex tracking, routing, and billing system required, no embarrassing privacy and security failures even with large investments and ongoing costs in that area. You don't think a family of 2 or 3 or 4 drives 15k miles a year in America? Maybe the number of cars drops from one per person to one per every other adult in a household. Maybe retirees pool their cars with their friends or share them with their working children. Looking at all the cars on the road with one person in them, I'd say we're pretty far from 1 car per household, let alone 0.

Parking cost when I'm away go down because the car can park itself somewhere cheaper (in automated facilities), or drive itself home, be at the disposal of friends/family, drop off or pick up things for me. Since in your world their are fewer cars, that puts downward pressure on parking prices. Parking facilities can be located in more economical areas, and pack cars more efficiently because they are automated and instrumented, and their own labor costs are reduced.

One of the main practical use cases for local cabs/ubers is a ride to the airport. Since my car can drive itself home, I really have no need for a ride for hire. Also, since giving a friend a friend a ride to the airport no longer a personal time investment, the odds of getting a ride from a friend increase. If you're worried about me not maximizing my 44 cents per mile, I can take someone leaving the airport home, assuming they meet my standards of reputation. At this point you're probably crowing victory, but note that is purely a highly infrequent, discretionary use of my excess capacity, perhaps less than 1% of miles driven for most people. It's more tax efficient to just swap (robo) rides with friends.

A self driving car will reduce all these onerous costs that ridesharing is supposed to save me from, plus I can earn money from it in your Renters Paradise, so I don't see any downside in owning a car. I hardly feel the cost as it is, even without driving anything close to the most economical, lowest TCO car on the market.