I think it's far more likely that the analyst has what we used to call "common sense" than they that have a master's degree in statistics, I'll admit. Of course Turing and his compatriots at Bletchley Park managed to win the war without all of them having a degree in stats, so maybe it's not actually the critical underpinning of the use of intelligence that you think it is.
Likewise since the NSA doesn't actually have LE working for it they'd have to pass off the juicy bits to some Federal law enforcement agency and convince some non-zero subset of that agency in order to "auto-SWAT" a house.
So yes, this is actually among the easier of bets I'll ever have to make. More difficult ones would involve policy on what should be a crime, what taxes should be, and how the foreign policy of the U.S. should be directed.
