There's no way to predict the outcomes. Options are little more than signals of intention. At point of exit, everything is in the air and you are not part of the negotiation. What's it worth? Do you have to move? Do you report the Chief VP of Total and Complete Meanness?

You get paid because someone is looking out for you.

The way to evaluate the deal you're getting from a founder is to ask yourself whether they would pay you out of their own pockets. There will be a moment when, in effect, they make that choice. The good ones won't be able to enjoy the money unless their team shares in the wealth. The bad ones will cobble together a rationalization about risk or how smart or deserving they are. You don't assess the offer, you assess the people. I know because I'm not very good at assessing the people ;)