Agreed, and I stated EXACTLY that in another portion of the thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7907637
> When you are designing a weapons system designed to kill people, you cannot just design something 'in a hackish fashion'. No, this shit has got to work correctly all the time.
No, with that part of engineering as with EVERY part of engineering: it depends. Do you want UNIT reliability or SYSTEM reliability? Does every plane have a literal 100% chance of intercepting every target it is tasked with? No, of course not. But the missiles do, you say? Again wrong. But surely SOME portion of the entire system will work ALL THE TIME! Nope, no engineer worth his salt will give you a 100% guarantee for anything as unknown as "stopping all possible threats".
Furthermore plenty of systems that are supposed to be very reliable are made up of less reliable parts. The whole Star Wars program was based on defense in depth where no one layer of system was going to stop 100% of the warheads but multiple layers acting in concert would be able to (presumably) stop them all or almost all. Hackish is fine provided that you've got substantially overlapping coverage from multiple command and control drones. No one drone has to work 100% guaranteed because even at only a 95% success rate (which is abysmal compared to the "all the time" demand you're making) with three overlapping zones gives you .05 * .05 * .05 = .0125% chance of failing. I'll take 1/8 of a chance of failure per thousand incidents as successful enough.
Again, I'm not talking about having 100 drones with 100 pilots but perhaps having 100 drones with 9 pilots for the command and control drones (one for every 10 mules) and some kind of a very rudimentary, randomized loiter algorithm for the mules.
> Kinda naive to think that you can just use SV start up philosophies in this application.
I want to say a bunch of really snarky stuff in response. I'm an outsider to SV; I grew up in MN, went to school in FL and now I live in TX. None of these places ever get accused of being even SLIGHTLY SV-ish in nature so I don't see how I deserve that kind of comment. Ultimately though you've made a lot of assumptions that don't necessarily hold. The idea that you're going to defeat the US using the same kind of procurement and whatever that the US uses is a non-starter. You don't try and beat the US at a symmetric war but you can defeat them with an asymmetric one. We're losing how many lives and how much money in Iraq and Afghanistan right now to IEDs which are what, 10 notches below the fancy shit we have? And yet all our fancy airplanes haven't saved a single soldier from an IED that I'm aware of.
I'm not necessarily saying that you absolutely 100% can use SV philosophies in war and win, but I am saying that the notion that the way the US military does it is the ONLY way to do it isn't correct either.
