see news about $100M exits ==> 0.5% == $500k
heard mention of a 10% success rate ==> $50k expected value
$50k == (market_rate - salary) ==> sounds about right
Which of course misses that (1) the utility of large amounts of money isn't linear (expected value doesn't work that way on single occurrences); (2) future money should be discounted by some rate; and (3) your equity will get diluted.And that the slaray difference is per year, and the equity is a one-time thing. And whatever else I missed.