> if a large population of geniuses in China starts to tip the technological and military balance and whether other countries would feel compelled to respond.
If all you needed to get an edge on other countries was a bunch of intelligent people, that would be known for a long time and India and China would be leading the world by now. But that's certainly not sufficient.
However, wouldn't you agree that China is getting closer to the US in technological sophistication? How does that picture look if a much larger proportion of China's population is geniuses?