I have always found the pan-spermia theories interesting. It still doesn't answer the 'where first' question but it allows for many places to share similar lifeforms without requiring a recreation of an improbable event in all of them. Of course it would be really weird if the universe was populated in this way with humanoids, and the original Star Trek was closer to the truth than not :-)
... without requiring a recreation of an improbable event in all of them
Just to add to your post: the probability of such a spontaneous event (life emerging from a cocktail) increases as you're no longer looking at a restricted area. If panspermia is the mechanism then you don't require life to originate on a suitable planet in a Goldilocks zone. Every square mm of (often porous) rock flying around is a potential point of origin, carrier or seeding station.What surprises me is that life can survive these trips. A rock ejected from the Earth would have to have tremendous heat during the escape velocity. Science is fascinating.
Science is very fascinating, but this phenomenon of life successfully leaving earth and arriving on other planets has never been demonstrated, so it's more idle speculation than science.
ALL THESE WORLDS
ARE YOURS EXCEPT
EUROPA
ATTEMPT NO
LANDING THEREIt's also a fair question, have we seen evidence from this on our moon? And if not is it really because of the limited exploration or some other factors?
[1]: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia
Billions of years forward. Intelligent life on multiple planets from same building blocks. They fight for dominance in a new natural selection. This time to see which planet was conducive for creating better lifeforms.
What this actually means, though, is that likely many other impact events in Earth's history could have done the same thing. Even going back billions of years. Which means that the probability of Earth life having landed on Mars, Venus, or Europa in a way which might have seeded locations favorable to life is very much non zero.
This sort of thing has been speculated about before but never modelled so rigorously using real-world impacts as examples.