There are 7 billion people.
So there is 0.003 bitcoin per person.
So if bitcoin will one day become "THE" currency, isn't it more than logical that 1BTC will become worth more than a million dollars or something like that (not that dollars would still exist at that time, but, 1BTC would be worth as much as an average group of 333 people owns)?
Or am I misunderstanding something about currency?
There are not 7 billion people that this will impact. How many of those have no access to a computer of any sort, including a mobile phone? How many are under the age of ten? That cuts out a huge chunk from that figure.
Then subtract all those too old to care about Bitcoin or internet anything.
Then remove from that those that have little faith in anything they can't touch and hold, physical currency, precious metals, or simply commodity items. Considering how reluctant some groups are to even use credit cards for online purchases, regardless of the enormous level of consumer protection provided by that service, this is an insurmountable hurdle for some.
There's at most a billion people in this market and for it to get that pervasive it will take an enormous upswing in popularity. At this point Bitcoin isn't even as popular as Cuban Pesos.
Bitcoin replacing the US dollar is unrealistic.
But if it's this valuable at the Cuban-peso level, how valuable will it be when it's as popular as, say, Canadian dollars or South African rand?
Irrelevant to your point, but less than you might think. Currency transfer using texting is popular and highly functional in several poor African countries. I agree with your assessment that these people won't be affected by Bitcoin, but using mobile phones to send money is actually VERY common in some poor countries.
That's the big question isn't it? Will bitcoin take over, or will another digital cryptocurrency conjured out of the ether take over? (bitcoin 2.0)
> So there is 0.003 bitcoin per person.
There's some bitcoin amounts that are likely lost forever, perhaps miners that lost their private keys or whatever, or forgot about their bitcoin wallet from the early days, which will skew the calculations and make the effective total less than 21 million. Also, as others have noted, you are likely to see inequality with bitcoin wealth, just like regular assets and currencies.
I was impressed with his prediction of the first top and drop. But if this will play out like the chart says it will. Well... impressive.
What do you think?
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses does not look bearish to me
See, e.g., the double top: http://www.forexhit.com/learn-forex/price-patterns.html
I think he is being rather short sighted here. Especially with news coming out that the Swiss parliament is investigating its potential to act as a legal currency.
