2013: Revenue $37.5B, Profit $7.5B (20%)
2012: Revenue $36.0B, Profit $8.2B (22%)
Loss of 2% net profit year over year. Just under a 5% drop per share on a diluted basis. So its becoming less profitable to be Apple which speaks to the margin pressure they are under from credible Android phones and tablets. I don't think the market expected that (or maybe they did, GOOG is trading over $1000 these days)Second, is this is really key, is that they started deferring more revenue because they are starting to give software away for free.
They guided for 36.5-37.5% margin in the next quarter and the stock tanked $30 after hours because the street wanted 37-38%. They then explained that they are going to defer an extra 900Mil of revenue on Mac and iOS because of moving the software to free. Without that, the revenue range would have been higher and the margin guide would have been closer to 38.5%. So they beat expectations for revenue, margin, and profit both this quarter and in guidance for next quarter, yet the stock tanked on release.
Once they mentioned this in the conference call, the stock regained all the losses and actually was up after hours for a bit. Now it's back down, but only slightly. I suspect just because more people are looking at the headlines and not reading or listening to the whole call.
Now, overall the margins are still lower this quarter than they were last quarter, but I don't see that as a huge problem. They changed the product mix. They had higher total revenue, large growth in total iPhone sales, and guided to revenue and profit growth for next quarter. They are still in pretty good shape. Oh and they have 150 bil in cash.
Overall gross margin is a blend of all your products, that gross margin is where you get the money for everything you do, pay salaries, buy capital equipment, etc. So it really doesn't matter if your margin is lower because you are shipping more inexpensive product (the mix), all that matters is that its lower. That changes the amount of revenue you must have to run the business and increases downside risk if you are close to the edge (as Dan Warmenhoven is famous for saying, you have much more control over margin than you do over revenue).
In the case of the iPad Mini it says that additional growth in the Tablet market is in the lower margin segment. That is accretive if you're holding on to your existing market share at the high end, and dilutive if you're losing high end share to the mid-range or bargain products. Same with phones, lets say the 5C turns out to be "good enough" and sales of the 5S plummet because it's extra cost (and margin) isn't "valuable" enough to the consumer to pay the extra money. Now you have to sell a lot more units to get the same profit, but that requires more "business" (and by that I mean more assemblers, more sales people, more trucks driving around, more logistics, etc.) You lower the price (which increases sales rate, but that also reduces margin, so you have to sell more to make the same amount.
Now I don't think Apple is anywhere near any of that, they are a very strong company with a solid brand. My observation is that the reduction in overall gross margin will come out of the business, whether it fewer product managers for more products, or lower salaries for retail staff, or what, the numbers have to balance.
Generally lower revenues but same margins is a sign so constraints in the supply chain. Higher revenue but lower profits is a sign of margin erosion. Lower revenue and lower profits and lower margins is perhaps one of the most alarming situation.
It is good to push back on folks who thought he tablet was just a fad? You know the ones who said "There isn't a 'tablet' market so much as their is an 'iPad' market." Well those folks have been shown to be mistaken.
I don't own any Apple stock (well I might in my blind 401k but I wouldn't know if I did :-) I've been tempted to pick some up after it dropped from the 700's into the 400's. But the thing that I keep wondering about is their ability to execute in a contested market by a competent opponent. This coming quarter will be an interesting one for everyone I expect.
Lower gross profit margins are probably better explained by either downward pressure on prices or upward pressures on costs of manufacture. It can also be driven by changes in product mix (e.g., higher sales of the lower margin iPad Mini). It's not unreasonable to attribute this to greater competition from lower margin Android products.
I imagine it's common among the Hacker News segment, but what about the average person?
Then we have the new iMac which also faced some supply problems and delays and offered customers something they probably didn't even care about -- a thinner desktop all-in-one PC. IIRC the Ivy Bridge update to the Mac Mini eliminated a SKU that offered a semi-decent GPU. Then Apple disappeared for a very long time and later in the year introduced Haswell updates to only the MacBook Airs leaving informed MacBook Pro would-be buyers facing old technology with a premium price tag.
Next we have the iPhone 5C which in most ways is a step backwards from the premium quality iPhone 4S (or would be iPhone 5) that occupied that price point. Contract free the device is totally non-competitive on pricing compared to better Android devices. The 5S was quite a good -S model upgrade however consumers are starting to get wise to the tick tock strategy and perhaps are choosing to wait for the iPhone 6 upgrade.
I've been watching Apple for quite a while now and FY2013 was not a great year for product upgrades. I'm actually kind of surprised they only took a 2% hit on profits.
They did not defer it to a later date, they recategorised software development as a cost center.
Also the big increase in iPhone sales year over year jives with what Asymco has posted about Android peaking. The easy growth from feature phones being replaced by low-end Android devices is over.
There is probably a big fleet of iPad 2 users out there who are almost ready to upgrade when their device dies. I think Apple have done right by the consumer by making iOS 7 work on the iPad 2... they could have chased profits and limited iOS 7 to only the newer iPads...
It's now that I don't really feel any compelling reason to upgrade -- even with iOS7 the interface is plenty fast enough, and I don't use it for games so any increases in performance wouldn't really matter to me.
"...someone pointed out that Kovach was comparing Apple's after tax net income to Samsung Electronics pre-tax operational income..."
typical mistake...
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/07/28/apple-samsung-profits...
I'm using net income, Samsung has 9.6 operating profit. Why are you showing an article from last quarter?
Apple posted better than expected earnings and revenue for its fourth-quarter on Monday, but shares still took a hit in after-hours trading.
The tech giant posted $8.26 a share on $37.5 billion in revenue. The street estimated the company would post $7.96 a share on revenue of $36.93 billion. But investors were disappointed with guidance for gross margins.
During the current quarter, the company expects gross margins of 36.5 percent to 37.5 percent, which missed forecasts of 37.9 percent.
http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/10/apple-inc-earnings-iphone-5...
Perhaps getting more predictable in releases softens earnings in certain quarters?
Sept 16
Sept 10
Sept 20
EDIT "5 second" was to emphasize I could be wrong, not to be a dick.
Doesn't sound like it when looking at the percentage. Apple had a market capitalization of $481,390,000,000 at the market close today. So 3% of that is $14,441,700,000. Seems more significant in whole numbers.
The real thing to consider is that every stock is much more thinly traded in after markets than it is during regular hours. For that reason, the few people trading during that time are typically not representative of the entire investment community.
A 3% price move is nothing noteworthy, especially in AH trading. IMO the only seasoned way to view this is that the judgement of the markets of this ER is still pending.