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0 pointsgrinnbearit12y ago0 comments

You're not taking risk into account, the company is not guaranteed to produce 5000 utils of labour, it could produce less or worse go bankrupt and produce nothing.

With no inflation, my risk free investment of money under a mattress produces no return. My risky investment with the company has the probability of a positive or a negative return.

With inflation, I'm forced to make a risky investments to break even. True, I can no longer keep my money under a mattress but I'm still an unsophisticated investor and choose to park my labour in houses for example which inevitably leads to a housing bubble.

With deflation, I agree, people would rather not invest in a business producing a lower return than the rate of deflation but why would that deflation occur? One reason could be more goods chasing the same amount of money implying real economic growth.

The problem I have with the current inflationary system is the distribution of new money, if all currency held and prices denominated in that currency increased by the same factor. It would result in a nominal increase in prices. No one would be richer or poorer after the increase. The current system distributes new money to people who directly interact with the central bank, rewarding them at the expense of everyone else.

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dllthomas12y ago· 1 in thread

I didn't take risk into account because it simplified things. Run the numbers with risk and you'll see it doesn't change things substantially - it effectively just changes what percentage I expect to get from the company.

Your point about unsophisticated investors bearing more of that risk is a good one, but doesn't change the fact that inflation motivates investment and deflation motivates hoarding - it points out one negative consequence of motivating investment.

Regarding your last point, we're discussing potential problems with bitcoin. A criticism of the current system - well founded or not - doesn't amount to an endorsement of a particular policy in an alternative system. Do you object to bitcoin mining distributing new money to miners? If not, would you object to it continuing to do so through expansion of the bitcoin supply rather than switching over to paying miners more entirely through transaction fees? My broader point is simply and entirely that the cap on the number of bitcoins presents some long term risk to an economy using bitcoin as currency.

grinnbearitOP12y ago

A venture with a 75% chance of providing 5000 utils of value is not the same as a 100% chance of producing 3750 utils.

Put another way, inflation motivates gambling and deflation motivates saving - it points out a serious consequence of forced spending, namely a flight to other, less abstract stores of value.

I would like your views on what deflation represents in an economy, I understand people are saving/hoarding money but by never spending it don't they remove themselves from the system? On the other hand, wouldn't an increase in productivity lead to the same amount of money buying better/more goods?

Using a stupidly simple model, if the total productivity of a society using Bitcoin remained constant would there be any deflation? What if the total productivity fell?

We should discuss the implications of mining in another post :)

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