Aren't they losing money on Bing, and are basically break even on Xbox? I predict Microsoft will eventually give up on Windows Phone and probably the consumer market in general. The momentum is overwhelmingly against them, but of course they'll go down with the ship almost all the way. What they should probably do is maintain an Android fork.
Yes, the main evidence is Xbox. Bing is an ok example. It has a little market share where Google dominates(I think around 15% to 20%). I think they would be happy to have that in mobile.