(1) person who wants some simple, clear guidance
(2) you and me who are debating at a slightly different level what advice we should give to #1.
So here's maybe a better way of making my argument:
1. Eat fewer carbs.
2. If you want evidence/science/logic, read the Taubes book.
[Addressed towards #2ers only:] I agree that too often people make great the enemy of the good. But I actually think it's just unhelpful to say "Eat less or exercise more" relative to "Eat fewer carbs". The amount of energy your body burns is dramatically influenced by hormones and the type of food you eat, that's by far the easiest lever to pull to lose weight. The Taubes book talks at length about the flaws in the thermodynamic metaphor. I confess I'm doing a poor job of communicating the argument.
Also thanks for the feedback, the good vs. great thing is a bit tricky.