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You are ignoring the decade+ behind WindowsCE and Windows Mobile. Microsoft has always been a player in this market.It was a very different market that Windows Mobile competed in. A market that emphasized physical keyboards, rather than touchscreens. A market with $200 device subsidies, rather than $400 smartphone subsidies. That market disappeared, and so did Windows Mobile's chances. In fact, every major product from that market is either dead or on life-support. Palm, Blackberry, Symbian.
Today, Windows Phone 8 shares very little code with Windows Mobile 6.5. Maybe some drivers, that's about it. It uses a different kernel, a different UI toolkit, a different API.
Microsoft failed horribly in the PC spreadsheet market, too. But they threw away their original product (Multiplan) and ported Excel to the PC. Laughing at Multiplan's failure would've been irrelevant when discussing the prospects for Excel. The introduction of the GUI disrupted the existing market for DOS spreadsheets.
Similarly, the failure of Windows Mobile 6.5 is irrelevant for the purposes of discussing Windows Phone's prospects. The problem with Windows Phone is that not that Windows Mobile failed -- but that Windows Phone has a low market share.
