You're basically saying that if everything works as expected, then a signed cookie is no different than an opaque handle to server-side data. But it doesn't answer (IMHO) the point that there are more things that can go wrong with a signed cookie. IMHO, YMMV.
Here are some challenges that occurred to me in a signed-cookie approach:
1) How is the signing key generated? If it's the output of a weak PRNG, maybe it can be bruteforced?
2) Where is it stored? Hard-coded in source? Data file? Command line param?
3) Same signing key on multiple servers?
4) Do you regenerate the keys periodically?
5) What if a team member leaves. Do signing keys get regenerated?
With a DB-based approach, your session data just piggybacks on the server security infrasturcture that you would have built anyway.