>It would be relatively simple to reason statically about the rate of memory allocation (iterate through all paths leading to a 'new' operator), but for this purpose you care about cases where an object becomes garbage and can be deallocated.
No I don't. All I care about is having enough free memory to make new allocations. I don't care how much garbage there is, I just care that when there's garbage it's being freed fast enough to support my allocations.