My last two "primary" consoles were the Xbox and the Xbox 360 (I also owned Nintendo's consoles primarily for Nintendo's first party games), and I am heavily leaning away from the next Xbox regardless of the "always online" situation. Sony just seems to be focusing more on things I care about (indie games, etc) while Microsoft continues to increase my prices to play online while simultaneously increasing the number of ads thrown at me on the service I am paying for).

If I do switch, I'll miss the Xbox-style controllers, which I much prefer to the Sony "* Shock" design, but I think I'll adjust eventually.