It's so hard to actually get bitcoins, that any "1 percent" discounts you get for paying with bitcoin in regular shops or sites just isn't worth it to me. Either enter your CC# and be done in 10 seconds, or go to mtgox and wait 2 weeks until you're verified (hyperboled, but the point stands). I'm assuming less techy people will be of the same mind on this.
The reason any non techy person would get bitcoins is as an investment, that's it. They don't care about any of the advantages of bitcoin because cash works just fine for them, and has most of the practical advantages anyway. If they're using it as an investment, they sure as hell won't use it to buy things.
This is something that can change. The question is, would it be enough to make people use Bitcoin?
Also, if it is "only" used as an investment, that would still be a huge success.
Lets just redo the Tulip mania (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania)
Over the last five years the people shorting governments/mortgages/banks, buying into gold/tech, and predicting a coming total collapse have in general made an ungodly amount of money.
Is Bitcoin's rise assured? No. But if it was then there would be no gain, no upside. There is a certain kind of person, all too common in our managed and enervated society, who does not know how to take calculated risks. Everything must be structured and approved by the New York Times, Harvard, and the Federal Government before it's safe to do. This same person often says that startup founders who make fortunes were "lucky", and will say the same thing about early Bitcoin adopters in a few years if it succeeds.
But what he never realizes is that you can't be lucky if you don't take risks.
Right now I suspect the bulk of the current spike in bitcoin prices is related to currency controls or the fear thereof now that Cyprus is going down the drain.
Clearly, if you need to move illicit funds around, Bitcoin is a reasonable way to do that.
Disclaimer: I am a believer
There are sustained run ups in assets values that can seem crazy but don't reverse. Consider the bane of my life, london house prices.
If bitcoin catches on as a means of exchange, e.g. cash in and out of Iran as is happening to some extent, 1 Billion market cap will seem small.
As a currency trader of ten years I see this energy-backed means of exchange reaching astronomical levels if the network does not suffer any major catastrophe.
What looks like a bubble here may well be an attempt to establish a base. $100 seems like a reasonable psychological base level after it is broken. From there, with greater adoption and acceptance, $1000 is targetable.
But be careful about how much you trust any bitcoin service. Bitcoinica, another margin trading platform, was wildly popular but existed for only 6 months; they had to shut down after several hacks and people lost funds.
Also, the main way to get non-bitcoin funds into these kinds of services is via mtgox redeemable codes, but those won't be available anymore after the 10th of April because of legal concerns.
