"Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent." - John Maynard Keynes
Two things you're not taking into account: 1) There are no fundamentals in the bitcoin market and 2) Margin calls
Based on the price action of just the last few months, it's easy to imagine you might need to cover for BTC at $250 or more (log trend), yet your max upside would be $50.