Sadly, the novelty soon wore off, and it turns out the social element is one of the reasons why they enjoy their trading.
In principle, you could make this work over something like video chat, but in practice I just don't see that working.
> We always knew that people bought this wine for fun.
> The buying process, and talking to others about the wine,
> turns out to be part of that fun.
So yes, you can strip out all of the fun bits and come up with a very efficient transaction process, it's just that the customers want the fun bits more."We wanted to revolutionise the fine wine industry, a market with many layers of middle men, and one that has traditionally eschewed technology, failing to patch it's many inefficiencies."
"Unfortunately, the service offered by all of these warehouses is poor. Again, we see little technology (basic online systems, preset passwords, refusal to spend money on an SSL certificate), and lots of human errors (such as very expensive wine being moved to the wrong accounts)."
If these statements are true then there are very real pain points here. Selling services to these vendors, solving their pains, is likely where there is money to be made.
It's a very antiquated market - with a lot of independent traders. Their view on software (particularly web based) is often that it's something you can get a teenager to build on the cheap and isn't worth spending real, hard cash on.
I try to tell this to startups that try to add indoor location-based technology to businesses like Men's Warehouse. What they fail to understand is that those places run better because they are staffed by people who understand their customers. When someone drives into the parking lot of a Men's Warehouse, they are already there to buy a suit. They don't need discounts or information about the products from an app on their smartphone, they need real customer service.
A skilled salesperson can upgrade anyone on warranties and other items. Having a piece of software do it, especially one built by a group of programmers and marketers that know nothing about suits, is ridiculous, and so is the idea of training skilled salespeople to also be system administrators for software that's not needed.
Geeks tend to fixate on efficiency in the time/cost dimension, but there are many other dimensions in which something can be efficient.
And efficiency in those other dimensions is why many given systems exist as they do.
There's totally a startup that could make a lot of money. Maybe start out as software for recruiters to manage their "inventory" of nurses? Then expand into a full on marketplace, eventually disinter-mediating said agencies.
It's also (unsurprisingly) really complex and I'm sure very far from their wine marketplace technology!
My wife is a nurse and we are moving to a new city soon. Seems like a good time to optimize her employment if we can.
With free rent it sounds like she is part of a travel nursing program or something like that?
I believe the domain specific language is "sparkling"...
Wow, just did a very quick Google, and some graphs look incredibly scary:
http://www.bbr.com/fine-wine/investment-wine-prices
http://blogs.reuters.com/globalinvesting/2012/07/09/investor...
http://bordeaux-traders.com/wine-investment/stock-performanc...
I admit that I know next to nothing about wine as an investment. Are the above a fair representation of the market over the last few years?
If so, I start to understand why I'd been hearing so many people talking about wine investments.
As for wine prices - they're starting to creep back up again. It's an interesting commodity - a finite amount is produced each year. It tends to improve with age, while supply decreases and demand increases.
Prices increased so much (more than the normal 10-15% per year) because newly minted Chinese people got a taste for it and bought everything they could get their hands on.
Was that only an assumption?
But because the market was so insular, once you cut out the middleman it turned out you probably knew the person you were buying from anyway, at which point you became far more willing to engage with them directly.
We did a lot of customer development work (and were customers ourselves) to validate these issues. The problem was keeping people on the site - they reverted to email and phone once the novelty of doing it online had worn off.
While I understand the sentiment, and I don't suspect it was done lightly, the rationale here is superficial. "I no longer believed would work". Well, whether it would work or wouldn't at one point you believed, and now you've got a team of people working for you. Closing primarily on the basis of your beliefs (which, apparently, were faulty before - perhaps they're faulty now too? market might turn around? network connections might kick in in 6-12 months?) comes across as selfish.
I don't think you actually were or are - I've no doubt there was a lot more going on that you didn't summarize in this one blog post, and it came across a bit off-handed. I say this as someone who's had to close down something with a team of people - I don't think anyone ever takes this decision lightly.
VC: So how do you feel about this company going forward once we give you another round of capital?
Owner: I believe we will fail. I am going to take your money and continue anyway.
If the VC did not interpret the owner as being irrational, he would be suspect himself. You are suggesting that it is selfish to give up things you believe are doomed. What other criteria is there for giving something up?
Owner: I believe this is a lot harder than I originally anticipated, and have learned a lot about the industry that invalidates some of the original assumptions. Continuing down the same road isn't a good option, but I'm thinking there are some other opportunities that we've identified which would be more profitable to pursue. Given that you have paid for this education and research, would you be interested in continuing to support us during a change in direction?
The interesting part is that you probably knew all of this going in. Perhaps you were so enamored with your idea, that you wanted to believe these were not the insurmountable challenges that they were. Reminds me of couples who marry knowing of certain glaring problems, but proceed anyway because they are "in love". Whether they downplay the problems, convince themselves they can overcome them or otherwise, these are frequently the very problems that lead them to failure (divorce).
But, more frequently, we probably just think these challenges will melt away or work themselves out somehow. Maybe that's why these businesses always look so good going in!
This is not to lambast you--quite the opposite actually. I have been there and I am still susceptible. I applaud you for acknowledging your challenges and getting out relatively early.
Good luck to you on your next venture!
It was tough to decide to stop - but when you take a step back, look at the data we had, it was the right decision.
But, how much confidence in our hypotheses is enough when it comes to the key "show-stopper" challenges? How clear should we be on the path before moving forward? Speaking from personal experience and observation of others, I would say that we founders tend to be optimistic when assessing these challenges at times. There's a little hope in there.
I suppose a certain degree of that optimism is necessary, else no one would move forward. It's just a bit painful to fail for all of the reasons you knew beforehand.
Because, testing the proposed solutions can be exceedingly difficult and resource-intensive. I've often wondered if there's a better way to test assumptions than just going all-in. I've found the much-lauded MVP approach to solving this doesn't cut it for me or for a lot of models/founders. For models that require things like network effects, brand credibility, and more advanced functionality to even be usable the "MVP" is, effectively, the full product. And, this doesn't even consider the marketing/PR/etc. that must be put behind it.
Given all of that, you actually did well to move on in only 18 months. Congrats on making a tough choice and freeing yourself up for the next opportunity.
Irrational stuff like this really pains me, especially when it's part of the reason I'm failing. But people are the way they are, for better or for worse. You have to find a way around it.
I think you can get around this by introducing social or gaming elements to the product. We didn't have the resources or the time to try that (and the size of the opportunity/market didn't justify the investment required).
And.. it's again a customer-driven thing. People like the ritual of a cork. It's soft data, but oh so important. Take a long time for people's expectations and preferences to change as many blind-utopian technologists find to their cost.
For instance, pretty much all New Zealand wine producers/exporters have been using screw-caps, even on expensive fine wines, since 2001.
Does the UK really make-up a third of the world wine market, or did I misunderstand?
I wonder if it's something to do with UK companies importing/exporting between the US and Europa
I bet having someone on the team that had spent a couple years in the fine wine industry would have made a huge difference, though perhaps that difference would have been to discourage the entire endeavor.
Many people in the industry were surprised when we closed - they fully expected us to do well. There are a lot of buyers who are very price sensitive (and happy to do things themselves / hunt around for bargains) - they assumed we'd scoop them all up in time.
In my opinion, you are poised for incredible success in your next start-up, because of what you learned at Vinetrade.
This is an interesting statement. I'm not sure I quite understand it though. Can you elaborate further?
It seems to me that you are saying that if buyer and seller know each other then they would eschew the market for a more intimate trading arrangement.
It seems to me that you are saying that if buyer and seller know each other then they would eschew the market for a more intimate trading arrangement.
This is exactly what I'm saying. E.g. Airbnb wouldn't work if hosts and guests already knew or could easily find each other some other way.Do your market research but disruptive innovation isn't something which can be formulated. Else we'd be much better at it by now.
"Unfortunately, over time we found that while people used the site once or twice, they quickly reverted back to emails and phone calls. We always knew that people bought this wine for fun."
Do you know why is that? It's not only about 'fun'. It's about knowing about the wine.
For the technically minded people it is easy to assume this 'wine talk' is BS (I'm not saying there isn't BS) but most of it isn't.
So the experience of buying it with someone who understands it is superior to seeing lists of pictures, prices and generic descriptions.
Also, I bet most wine consumers that would go for this service don't care to learn an iPhone app.
1st lesson for startups: Know your market! I can't make a "disruptive marketplace removing inefficiencies" for selling sand at a beach (absurd example, but you get the spirit)
How is it done today? Remove the pains, but don't take the good things out.
Another analogy. People won't exchange eating pineapples for bananas because bananas are easier to eat, rather, remove the pain of peeling the pineapple, but sell pineapple.
For example, when someone places a phone order (especially for wine), they may ask the associates preference or suggestions. It would be awesome if you had a program that took drinkers preferences into consideration and then suggested maybe 3-5 wines.