In all seriousness though, there is one interesting thing that is different now from last time. Last time being the previous frenzied Bitcoin price hype bubble that peaked at 31$. No one fears that Bitcoin will crash to 0/pennies anymore once the price stops climbing, at least not due to standard market forces. It's pretty well established now that there is some baseline demand that will form a price bottom (assuming no large network attack occurs). What effect that will have on this bubble (if one forms) is hard to say but it should be interesting and not a repeat of last time.
... just along for the ride with the bitcoins I mined and am hoarding.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl
This means that in the long run, Bitcoin's price will be positively correlated with its adoption.[1]
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[1] My full thoughts on the matter: http://cs702.wordpress.com/2011/05/29/on-the-potential-adopt...
Not reporting income denominated in bitcoin will simply result in prison time and financial penalties measured and payable in the government's currency.
To me it seems to be a choice of what does big brother value more - money or information?
Banning a business from accepting bitcoin would be as hard as telling a business they couldn't give stuff away for free. I think they could shut down the exchange portals, but they couldn't keep people from trading goods for BTC.
Currently, the central banks (the Feds, and the various EU central banks) control the currency (by control, i mean they are the only ones able to print more of it). Now, i don't really know who controls those banks, but i m willing to bet that they are some powerful vested interests there. These people do not like the gold standard, simply because having a gold standard strips them of their power they currently enjoy.
Bitcoin, being a good candidate for a digital gold standard, will be targetd just like the gold standard was targeted in the 70's in the US of A. I really wish bitcoin could become recognized by the normal peoples of the world, but i think it can't, because there is no force behind it. The monopoly on using violence is the only way to have a currency adopted, and i don't see bitcoin getting any of that. my prediction is that bitcoin will be relegated to being a niche currency.
http://anonymity-in-bitcoin.blogspot.ie/2011/07/bitcoin-is-n...
Edit: there is no resistance upward right now on MtGox. $300k of buys would push to $24. $500k to $30. http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/mtgoxUSD_depth.html
If you keep doing that, it will crash again, at least down to $15.
But certainly the bulk of the value remains from speculative interest rather than organic demand for the coins for use in commerce.
Also, being in China they are likely to keep a good part of the profit in BTC to use in services, since a lot is not allowed over there. This can kickstart a local BTC economy where it's needed the most.
(1) Bubble: http://www.economist.com/blogs/babbage/2011/10/virtual-curre...
(2) Fraud and Robberies: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin#Theft_and_fraud
(3) Money laundering: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silk_Road_(anonymous_marketpla... , https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin#Taxation
(4) Gambling: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin#Gambling
(5) Ponzi Scheme: See "Bitcoin Savings and Trust" in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin#Theft_and_fraud
Almost all of that was found in the Wikipedia article for Bitcoin (with citations). Please don't be too lazy to do your own research…
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis
You're right, apart from market inefficiencies that's right.
But I'm proposing something else, to analyse the variation (which, of course, for BtcGBP is effectively BtcUSD * USDGBP) against other currencies to see if it's (for example, in this case the price of BTCUSD rising) if it's a dollar devaluation or if it's BTC that's increasing in value
(http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/07/daily-c...)
Maybe I need to get back in to bitcoin mining...
