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0 pointsyalogin14h ago0 comments

Why is the whole world jumping on to humanoid robots? What am I not seeing that requires this level of investment in it?

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14 comments · 7 top-level

DennisP13h ago· 4 in thread

For the optimistic case, read this piece by RethinkX:

https://www.rethinkx.com/blog/rethinkx/the-disruption-of-lab...

(Fwiw, >20 years ago RethinkX correctly projected the exponential cost declines of solar and batteries, when everybody else was drawing straight lines.)

dgellow7h ago

> RethinkX correctly projected the exponential cost declines of solar and batteries, when everybody else was drawing straight lines

That’s not at all what I remember, what are you basing that claim on?

imtringued6h ago

Your "Fwiw" feels meaningless and hollow. The fact that there are stupid people out there, doing stupid things does not make you a savant just because you didn't make the same mistake.

This person clearly hasn't spent much time educating themselves how high volume manufacturing works, nor have they spent much time on flexible manufacturing systems either.

The entire article boils down to "Humanoids! Humanoids! HUMANOIDS!"

protocolture11h ago

> Humanoid robots will enter the market at a cost-capability of under $10/hour for their labor, on a trajectory to under $1/hour before 2035 and under $0.10/hour before 2045.

I dont see it, unless this is an expectation that a robot will work for 50 years without maintenance at capex.

Why doesnt a comparable tool, like an excavator, work with this math? Why arent they 100 times cheaper to run than 20 years ago? Excavators can cost 50 - 100k pa in maintenance and fuel costs.

Why does creating a multifunction tool, with even finer tolerances, working in human safe workspaces cost less?

pingou8h ago

Because supposedly they would repair themselves or be repaired by other robots, and energy would cost less and less, anything would cost less and less if work is increasingly done by robots than can be improved year after year.

kart2314h ago· 2 in thread

automating repetitive physical work doesn’t appeal to you?

scheme27113h ago

Sure, but I'm not sure humanoid robots is the best form factor for this. E.g. something with a wheeled base makes movement calculations a lot easier since you don't need to deal with balance while moving.

Miraltar6h ago

But it needs more space to maneuver, a mostly flat ground, can't step over anything... It's simpler but less adaptable

stogot14h ago· 1 in thread

They can sell “employees” who don’t require salaries, onboarding, healthcare, 401k, benefits, etc and then leave after two years of being lazy and try to sue you. (This is how it will be marketed)

anigbrowl14h ago

Economies like South Korea and Japan have a drastic population deficit that means there are simply not enough people around to perform many kinds of manual labor tasks.

jameslk14h ago

The great aging of working populations:

China: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f8/Populati...

Japan: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2e/Japan_po...

South Korea: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4a/South_Ko...

United States: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c9/US_Popul...

Europe: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/86/Europe_p...

Also the technology carries over to defense purposes

And then there’s the fact that tremendous investment is going into all things AI, and now hard tech

Aerroon13h ago

All current jobs have human input and output interfaces. If you want to sell new technology then it will be easiest to accommodate the already existing infrastructure.

cesarvarela11h ago

The expected value is "infinite".

SecretDreams14h ago

Sex bots and disposable police. This is basically the future in every dystopian SciFi these politicians and oligarchs grew up watching. This is just living out fantasy.

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